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Archive for category Threat Watch
Mali Besieged by Fighters Fleeing Libya
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 2/Feb/2012 20:06
From STRATFOR
By Scott Stewart
Mali has experienced perhaps the most significant external repercussions from the downfall of the regime of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. Stratfor has discussed the impact of the conflict in Libya on the wider region since international intervention began in March 2011. Instability in Libya due to that country’s deep internal fault lines meant that re-establishing a government would prove difficult. As we pointed out, that instability could spread to neighboring countries as weapons and combatants flow outward from Libya.
Reports now indicate that thousands of armed Tuareg tribesmen who previously served in Gadhafi’s military have returned home to Mali. The influx of this large number of well-armed and well-trained fighters, led by a former Libyan army colonel, has re-energized the long-simmering Tuareg insurgency against the Malian government. These Tuareg insurgents have formed a new group, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA). In mid-January, they began a military campaign to free three northern regions of Mali from Bamako’s control. Read the rest of this entry »
Nigeria’s Boko Haram Militants Remain a Regional Threat
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 26/Jan/2012 16:18
From STRATFOR:
By Scott Stewart
The Nigerian militant group Boko Haram conducted a series of bombing attacks and armed assaults Jan. 20 in the northern city of Kano, the capital of Kano state and second-largest city in Nigeria. The attacks, which reportedly included the employment of at least two suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), targeted a series of police facilities in Kano. These included the regional police headquarters, which directs police operations in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa states, as well as the State Security Service office and the Nigerian Immigration Service office. At least 211 people died in the Kano attacks, according to media reports.
The group carried out a second wave of attacks in Bauchi state on Jan. 22, bombing two unoccupied churches in the Bauchi metropolitan area and attacking a police station in the Tafawa Balewa local government area. Militants reportedly also tried to rob a bank in Tafawa Balewa the same day. Though security forces thwarted the robbery attempt, 10 people reportedly died in the clash, including two soldiers and a deputy police superintendent.
In a third attack, Boko Haram militants attacked a police sub-station in Kano on Jan. 24 with small arms and improvised hand grenades. A tally of causalities in the assault, which reportedly lasted some 25 minutes, was not available. This armed assault stands out tactically from the Jan. 20 suicide attacks against police stations in Kano. The operation could have been an attempt to liberate some of the Boko Haram militants the government arrested following the Jan. 20 and Jan. 22 attacks. Read the rest of this entry »
Considering a U.S.-Iranian Deal
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 25/Jan/2012 16:04
From STRATFOR:
By George Friedman
Last week, I wrote on the strategic challenge Iran faces in its bid to shape a sphere of influence stretching from western Afghanistan to Beirut on the eastern Mediterranean coast. I also pointed out the limited options available to the United States and other Western powers to counter Iran.
One was increased efforts to block Iranian influence in Syria. The other was to consider a strategy of negotiation with Iran. In the past few days, we have seen hints of both.
Rebel Gains in Syria
The city of Zabadani in southwestern Syria reportedly has fallen into the hands of anti-regime forces. Though the city does not have much tactical value for the rebels, and the regime could well retake it, the event could have real significance. Up to this point, apart from media attention, the resistance to the regime of President Bashar al Assad has not proven particularly effective. It was certainly not able to take and hold territory, which is critical for any insurgency to have significance. Read the rest of this entry »
Polarization and Sustained Violence in Mexico’s Cartel War
Posted by Gary in Threat Watch on 24/Jan/2012 22:23
From: Stratfor
As we noted in last year’s annual cartel report, Mexico in 2010 bore witness to some 15,273 deaths in connection with the drug trade. The death toll for 2010 surpassed that of any previous year, and in doing so became the deadliest year ever in the country’s fight against the cartels. But in the bloody chronology that is Mexico’s cartel war, 2010′s time at the top may have been short-lived. Despite the Mexican government’s efforts to curb cartel-related violence, the death toll for 2011 may have exceeded what had been an unprecedented number.
According to the Mexican government, cartel-related homicides claimed around 12,900 lives from January to September — about 1,400 deaths per month. While this figure is lower than that of 2010, it does not account for the final quarter of 2011. The Mexican government has not yet released official statistics for the entire year, but if the monthly average held until year’s end, the overall death toll for 2011 would reach 17,000. Though most estimates put the total below that, the actual number of homicides in Mexico is likely higher than what is officially reported. At the very least, although we do not have a final, official number — and despite media reports to the contrary — we can conclude that violence in Mexico did not decline substantially in 2011.
Iran, the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 19/Jan/2012 12:31
From STRATFOR:
By George Friedman
The United States reportedly sent a letter to Iran via multiple intermediaries last week warning Tehran that any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz constituted a red line for Washington. The same week, a chemist associated with Iran’s nuclear program was killed in Tehran. In Ankara, Iranian parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani met with Turkish officials and has been floating hints of flexibility in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.
This week, a routine rotation of U.S. aircraft carriers is taking place in the Middle East, with the potential for three carrier strike groups to be on station in the U.S. Fifth Fleet’s area of operations and a fourth carrier strike group based in Japan about a week’s transit from the region. Next week, Gen. Michael Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will travel to Israel to meet with senior Israeli officials. And Iran is scheduling another set of war games in the Persian Gulf for February that will focus on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ irregular tactics for closing the Strait of Hormuz. Read the rest of this entry »
Armed UAV Operations 10 Years On
Posted by Brian in Threat Watch on 16/Jan/2012 16:02
From STRATFOR
One of the most iconic images of the American-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan — as well as global U.S. counterterrorism efforts — has been the armed unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), specifically the MQ-1 “Predator” and the MQ-9 “Reaper.” Unarmed RQ-1 Predators (which first flew in 1994) were flying over Afghanistan well before the 9/11 attacks. Less than a month after the attacks, an armed variant already in development was deployed for the first time.
In the decade since, the Predator has clocked more than a million flight hours. And while U.S. Air Force procurement ceased in early 2011 — with more than 250 airframes purchased — the follow-on MQ-9 Reaper has already been procured in numbers and production continues. Predators and Reapers continue to be employed in a broad spectrum of roles, including close air support (CAS), when forward air controllers communicate with UAV operators to release ordnance with friendly troops in the vicinity (CAS is one of the more challenging missions even for manned aircraft because of the heightened risk of friendly casualties). Officially designated “armed, multi-mission, medium-altitude, long endurance, remotely piloted aircraft,” the second to last distinction is the Predator and Reaper’s principal value: the ability to loiter for extended periods, in some cases for more than 24 hours. Read the rest of this entry »
Two Carriers Now in 5th Fleet
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 11/Jan/2012 13:40
The Carrier Carl Vinson is now in 5th Fleet’s area of operation along with John C. Stennis.
From Military Times:
Vinson, as well as embarked Carrier Air Wing 17, cruiser Bunker Hill and destroyer Halsey, entered 5th Fleet on Jan. 9, where it is expected to support Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan. Navy and Defense Department officials said last week that threats and military exercises from Iran would not deter U.S. forces from continuing to work in the region and that operations were running as usual with no special response to Iran’s provocations.
Clerk knocks out robber, makes him clean up his own blood.
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch, Warriors on 28/Dec/2011 15:38
“Mostafa Kamel Hendi, armed with what was later identified as a pellet gun, attempted to rob the We Buy Gold shop in Hendersonville, North Carolina. The store clerk, Derek Mothershead, punched him in the nose and knocked him out. While waiting for police to arrive, Mothershead handed Hendi a roll of paper towels and made him clean the floor of his own blood.”
U.S. Diplomatic Security in Iraq After the Withdrawal
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 26/Dec/2011 16:31
U.S. Diplomatic Security in Iraq After the Withdrawal is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Scott Stewart
The completion of the U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq on Dec. 16 opens a new chapter in the relationship between the United States and Iraq. One of this chapter’s key features will be the efforts of the United States and its regional allies to limit Iranian influence inside Iraq during the post-Saddam, post-U.S. occupation era.
From the 1970s until the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iranian power in the Persian Gulf was balanced by Iraq’s powerful military. With Iraqi military might weakened in 1991 and shattered in 2003, the responsibility for countering Iranian power fell to the U.S. military. With that military now gone from Iraq, the task of countering Iranian power falls to diplomatic, foreign-aid and intelligence functions conducted by a host of U.S. agencies stationed at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and consulates in Basra, Kirkuk and Arbil. Read the rest of this entry »
Good guy 1, Bad guy 0
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch, Warriors on 23/Dec/2011 01:18
COLUMBUS, Ohio — “Police said a desk clerk shot a man who was attempting to rob an east side motel on Saturday night.
Officers said that shortly before 9:30 p.m., a man walked into the Super 8 Motel, located at 2055 Brice Rd., showed a gun and demanded money.
Police said the desk clerk on duty then shot the alleged robber, Antoine Stephens.
Stephens, 20, was transported to Grant Medical Center and was in serious condition on Sunday morning, NBC 4 reported.
Police said he would be charged with aggravated robbery.
3 shots fired, all 3 hit the bad guy, gun was a glock 23, 40cal with 165g Gold dots
no charges filed agenst shooter, badguy went to prison.”
Veteran breaks up mob of neighborhood thugs with his Mosin Nagant
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Long Guns, Mosin Nagant, News, Threat Watch, Warriors on 19/Dec/2011 14:30
KANSAS CITY, MO.—
Roger MacBride says that he’s used to looking out for trouble in his old Northeast neighborhood. But usually the problems involve prostitutes or drug addicts, and he says that he wasn’t ready for what he calls a mob of young troublemakers who threatened his home and family.
Witnesses say that a group of 25 to 30 young teens terrorized the neighborhood on wednesday. MacBride says that the teens kicked in the door to a neighboring home and broke windows inside. He says when he yelled at the group to get out, they turned on him.
“All of a sudden, this one kid with corn rows comes out and he’s like yakety yak, (expletive), da, da, da. He’s like we’ll kick your (expletive) too you don’t (expletive) own this neighborhood, and they are like, literally, 12 of them, start running over here,” said MacBride.
MacBride says the teens surrounded his house, picking up rocks and throwing them at him. That’s when he says in his eyes, the mob stopped being a bunch of kids and became a big threat. He says the teens were reaching for his door handle when the the sight of his Soviet rifle had an instant reaction.
“I grabbed this and literally just came straight out the porch, came out just like this, and was like now, get the (expletive) out of here,” said MacBride. “I literally come out that side door, and these two kids are like, hey, he’s got a gun. And then everybody just woosh, they just dispersed totally.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0T4OyFa0Wbo
Russia’s Plan to Disrupt U.S.-European Relations
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 17/Dec/2011 08:18
Russia’s Plan to Disrupt U.S.-European Relations is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Lauren Goodrich
Tensions between the United States and Russia have risen in the past month over several long-standing problems, including ballistic missile defense (BMD) and supply lines into Afghanistan. Moscow and Washington also appear to be nearing another crisis involving Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The crises come as Washington struggles over its many commitments in the world and over whether to focus on present events in Afghanistan or future events in Central Europe. Russia has exploited the U.S. dilemma, using its leverage in both arenas. However, if Moscow takes its aggressive moves too far, it could spark a backlash from the United States and Central Europe. Read the rest of this entry »
LAPD Bails on Google Apps Because of Security & Privacy Concerns
Posted by Gary in Comms, News, Threat Watch on 16/Dec/2011 14:23
From: Cloudline
Microsoft’s Office 365 isn’t the only cloud service losing high-profile customers to security and privacy concerns. Google got a dose of the same medicine on Wednesday, with the LA Timesreporting that the LAPD is now backing out of its contract with Google so it can stick with its on-premises Novell platform for e-mail.
The LAPD and the city attorney’s office ultimately decided, some two years after deciding to move their e-mail systems to the cloud in order to save costs, that no cloud computing solution is really compatible with the federal security guidelines that the departments are required to follow.
“It will be difficult for law enforcement to move to a cloud solution until the [security requirements] and cloud are more in line with each other,” LAPD’s CIO told the LA Times.
The Syria Crisis: Assessing Foreign Intervention
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 15/Dec/2011 20:11
The Syria Crisis: Assessing Foreign Intervention is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Scott Stewart
The ongoing unrest, violence and security crackdowns in Syria have been the subject of major international attention since February. Our current assessment is that the government and opposition forces have reached a stalemate in which the government cannot quell the unrest and the opposition cannot bring down the regime without outside intervention.
In the Dec. 8 Security Weekly, we discussed the covert intelligence war being waged by the United States, Israel and other U.S. allies against Iran. Their efforts are directed not only against Tehran’s nuclear program but also against Iran’s ability to establish an arc of influence that stretches through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. To that end, the United States and its allies are trying to limit Iran’s influence in Iraq and to constrain Hezbollah in Lebanon. But apparently they are also exploring ways to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al Assad, a longtime ally of Iran whose position is in danger due to the current unrest in the country. In fact, a U.S. State Department official recently characterized the al Assad regime as a “dead man walking.”
We therefore would like to examine more closely the potential external efforts required to topple the Syrian regime. In doing so, we will examine the types of tools that are available to external forces seeking to overthrow governments and where those tools fit within the force continuum, an array of activities ranging from clandestine, deniable activities to all-out invasion. We will also discuss some of the indicators that can be used by outside observers seeking to understand any efforts taken against the Syrian regime. Read the rest of this entry »
The Cyber Security Industrial Complex
Posted by Gary in Comms, News, Threat Watch on 10/Dec/2011 14:07
From: MIT
A claim by Wikileaks that documents it released last week provide evidence of a “secret new industry” of mass surveillance was as breathless as previous pronouncements from Julian Assange’s organization. But the material does provide a stark reminder that our online activities are easily snooped upon, and suggests that governments or police around the world can easily go shopping for tools to capture whatever information they want from us.
The take-home for ordinary computer users is that the privacy and security safeguards they use—including passwords and even encryption tools—present only minor obstacles to what one researcher calls the “cyber security industrial complex.”
“There is no true privacy in any computing systems against determined government-level surveillance,” says Radu Sion, a computer scientist at Stony Brook University who directs its Network Security and Applied Cryptography Laboratory. He says that as computing systems become more complex, and reliant on components from many different suppliers, the number of vulnerabilities that can be exploited by attackers and surveillance tools will grow.