Mexico and Pakistan: “rapid and sudden collapse”?

Mexican federal police arrest hit men of the Sinaloa Drug Cartel

“Two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.” Joint Operating Environment 2008″ by the Virginia-based United States Joint Forces Command

While potentially alarming, the study has to be taken in context. Its scenarios are pure projections and they go through to 2034… the Pentagon report does offer concerning food for thought.

Last year, there were 5,300 killings in Mexico that appeared to be from drug gangs — or police and military fighting these gangs — a level of bloodshed that many on both sides of the border say can be understood as a low-intensity civil war.

It is not outrageous to fear that this violence could combine with political conflict to cause more widespread bloody turmoil and force the government to fully withdraw from parts of the country.”

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