Posts Tagged persian gulf

Israel And UAE Strike Peace Deal

From The Federalist:

In a big win for Middle Eastern relations and a major victory for the Trump administration, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially established diplomatic ties Thursday in a peace agreement brokered by the United States.

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Iran Stages ‘Cyber Warfare Drill’

From: Arutz Sheva

Iran has combined cyber warfare tactics and maritime war games in a drill for the first time as it stages maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz.

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Two Carriers Now in 5th Fleet

The Carrier Carl Vinson is now in 5th Fleet’s area of operation along with John C. Stennis.

From Military Times:

Vinson, as well as embarked Carrier Air Wing 17, cruiser Bunker Hill and destroyer Halsey, entered 5th Fleet on Jan. 9, where it is expected to support Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan. Navy and Defense Department officials said last week that threats and military exercises from Iran would not deter U.S. forces from continuing to work in the region and that operations were running as usual with no special response to Iran’s provocations.

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Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, Part 1: A Strategy of Deterrence

This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR


Editor’s Note: Though this article was originally published in October 2009, the ongoing debate over Iran’s capabilities and intentions gives lasting relevance to the analysis within. Media reports continue to focus on efforts to disrupt Tehran’s efforts to construct nuclear weapons, but the international community has a much greater strategic interest in ensuring the flow of oil through the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz.

It has often been said that Iran’s “real nuclear option” is its ability to close — or at least try to close — the Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates the movement of 90 percent of the Persian Gulf’s oil exports (40 percent of the global seaborne oil trade) as well as all of the gulf’s liquefied natural gas exports. At a time when the world is crawling back from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, this is a serious threat and warrants close examination.

Iran actually has a broad range of military options for lashing out at energy exports in the strait, and this is not a new development. Almost since the founding days of the Islamic republic, Iran has been exercising military force in the Persian Gulf, starting with attacks against Iraqi tankers (and Kuwaiti tankers carrying Iraqi oil) during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. But in all this time, Iran has never exercised the full measure of its capability to close the Strait of Hormuz to maritime commerce — if indeed it has that capability. Although Iran has an array of options for limited strikes, our interests here are the dynamics of an all-out effort. Read the rest of this entry »

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The Turkish Role in Negotiations with Iran

The Turkish Role in Negotiations with Iran is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

By George Friedman

The P-5+1 talks with Iran will resume Jan. 21-22. For those not tuned into the obscure jargon of the diplomatic world, these are the talks between the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia), plus Germany — hence, P-5+1. These six countries will be negotiating with one country, Iran. The meetings will take place in Istanbul under the aegis of yet another country, Turkey. Turkey has said it would only host this meeting, not mediate it. It will be difficult for Turkey to stay in this role.

The Iranians have clearly learned from the North Koreans, who have turned their nuclear program into a framework for entangling five major powers (the United States, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea) into treating North Korea as their diplomatic equal. For North Korea, whose goal since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the absorption of China with international trade has come down to regime survival, being treated as a serious power has been a major diplomatic coup. The mere threat of nuclear weapons development has succeeded in doing that. When you step back and consider that North Korea’s economy is among the most destitute of Third World countries and its nuclear capability is far from proven, getting to be the one being persuaded to talk with five major powers (and frequently refusing and then being coaxed) has been quite an achievement. Read the rest of this entry »

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US navy to battle swarms of Iranian ‘stealth’ WIG-ships with Laser energy cannons

“The US military-industrial complex has unveiled its answer to the much-vaunted “swarm” tactics of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval forces, which might see squadrons of “stealth” flying boats and attack craft overwhelming the defences of US warships in the Persian Gulf.

The US Navy will deal with this, apparently, using rapid-firing laser raygun cannons to sweep their swarming enemies from the seas and skies around them.”

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Rethinking American Options on Iran

Rethinking American Options on Iran is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

By George Friedman

Public discussion of potential attacks on Iran’s nuclear development sites is surging again. This has happened before. On several occasions, leaks about potential airstrikes have created an atmosphere of impending war. These leaks normally coincided with diplomatic initiatives and were designed to intimidate the Iranians and facilitate a settlement favorable to the United States and Israel. These initiatives have failed in the past. It is therefore reasonable to associate the current avalanche of reports with the imposition of sanctions and view it as an attempt to increase the pressure on Iran and either force a policy shift or take advantage of divisions within the regime.

My first instinct is to dismiss the war talk as simply another round of psychological warfare against Iran, this time originating with Israel. Most of the reports indicate that Israel is on the verge of attacking Iran. From a psychological-warfare standpoint, this sets up the good-cop/bad-cop routine. The Israelis play the mad dog barely restrained by the more sober Americans, who urge the Iranians through intermediaries to make concessions and head off a war. As I said, we have been here before several times, and this hasn’t worked.

The worst sin of intelligence is complacency, the belief that simply because something has happened (or has not happened) several times before it is not going to happen this time. But each episode must be considered carefully in its own light and preconceptions from previous episodes must be banished. Indeed, the previous episodes might well have been intended to lull the Iranians into complacency themselves. Paradoxically, the very existence of another round of war talk could be intended to convince the Iranians that war is distant while covert war preparations take place. An attack may be in the offing, but the public displays neither confirm nor deny that possibility. Read the rest of this entry »

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Today, Iran began mass-producing two kinds of high-speed missile-launching assault boats

The Iranian made 'Seraj'

Iranian State TV says Iran has inaugurated production lines for two types of assault boats - one dubbed Zolfaghar, after a famed sword, and a second named Seraj, or Light.

“WASHINGTON — The United States voiced concern Monday over Iran’s unveiling of new assault boats and an aerial drone, but said Iran’s arms buildup will backfire as its neighbors gang up against it.

Iran began mass-producing two high-speed variants of missile-launching assault boats on Monday, a day after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad revealed a home-built bomber drone.”

Missles, Drones and Boats, oh my! (Not to mention Nuclear Power Plants) Those industrious Iranians have really been busy lately, building new devices of death and destruction. Not to worry, though: they follow a Religion of Peace! [taqiyya].

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Iran says it has 100 vessels for each US warship

IRGC Navy Commander Rear Admiral Morteza Saffari

“TEHRAN — The former naval chief for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said the country has set aside 100 military vessels to confront each warship from the U.S. or any other foreign power that might pose a threat, an Iranian newspaper reported Saturday.

Such a military confrontation in the vital oil lanes of the Persian Gulf would be of major global concern. The warning builds on earlier threats by Iran to seal off the Gulf’s strategic Strait of Hormuz — through which 40 percent of the world’s oil passes — in response to any military attack.

“We have set aside 100 military vessels for each (U.S.) warship to attack at the time of necessity,” Gen. Morteza Saffari was quoted as saying by the conservative weekly Panjereh.”

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Dan Plesch: “They are gearing up totally for the destruction of Iran,” Fidel Castro warns of immenent war

US defence department image of the launch of a Tomahawk missile against Iraq from the USS Bunker Hill. Photograph: Richard Moore, Getty

“They are gearing up totally for the destruction of Iran,” according to Dan Plesch, director of the Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy at the University of London.

“US bombers and long range missiles are ready today to destroy 10,000 targets in Iran in a few hours,” he said. “The firepower of US forces has quadrupled since 2003,” accelerating under Obama.

The Arab press reports that an American fleet (with an Israeli vessel) passed through the Suez Canal on the way to the Persian Gulf, where its task is “to implement the sanctions against Iran and supervise the ships going to and from Iran.” British and Israeli media report that Saudi Arabia is providing a corridor for Israeli bombing of Iran (denied by Saudi Arabia).

The Obama administration has been rapidly expanding its offensive capacity in the African island of Diego Garcia, claimed by Britain, which had expelled the population so that the US could build the massive base it uses for attacking the Middle East and Central Asia.

The Navy reports sending a submarine tender to the island to service nuclear-powered guided-missile submarines with Tomahawk missiles, which can carry nuclear warheads. Each submarine is reported to have the striking power of a typical carrier battle group.

According to a US Navy cargo manifest obtained by the Sunday Herald (Glasgow), the substantial military equipment Obama has dispatched includes 387 “bunker busters” used for blasting hardened underground structures. Planning for these “massive ordnance penetrators,” the most powerful bombs in the arsenal short of nuclear weapons, was initiated in the Bush administration, but languished. On taking office, Obama immediately accelerated the plans, and they are to be deployed several years ahead of schedule, aiming specifically at Iran.

Fidel Castro is warning of an imminent war in the Persian Gulf. Released yesterday, this document reveals that Iran, Cuba, Chavez and their Axis are truly scared that the political war will soon be over and Iran will soon face punishment for their defiance.”

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Indicators of possible imminent attack on Iran?

“Recently Saudi Arabia gave Israel permission to fly over to strike Iran.

A US Carrier group was seen transiting the Suez Canal with IDF naval vessels on their way to the Persian Gulf.

News agencies have reported that IAF jets have landed at airfields in Saudi Arabia and that nuclear armed Israeli submarines are stationed off of Iran.

There are currently as many as three US Carrier groups in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea and US Troops have been reported to be massing in Azerbaijan.”

Or it could just be more rumors.

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