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Archive for category Opinion
The Evolution of a Pakistani Militant Network
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 19/Sep/2011 21:22
The Evolution of a Pakistani Militant Network is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Sean Noonan and Scott Stewart
For many years now, STRATFOR has been carefully following the evolution of “Lashkar-e-Taiba†(LeT), the name of a Pakistan-based jihadist group that was formed in 1990 and existed until about 2001, when it was officially abolished. In subsequent years, however, several major attacks were attributed to LeT, including the November 2008 coordinated assault in Mumbai, India. Two years before that attack we wrote that the group, or at least its remnant networks, were nebulous but still dangerous. This nebulous nature was highlighted in November 2008 when the “Deccan Mujahideen,†a previously unknown group, claimed responsibility for the Mumbai attacks.
While the most famous leaders of the LeT networks, Hafiz Mohammad Saeed and Zaki-ur Rehman Lakhvi, are under house arrest and in jail awaiting trial, respectively, LeT still poses a significant threat. It’s a threat that comes not so much from LeT as a single jihadist force but LeT as a concept, a banner under which various groups and individuals can gather, coordinate and successfully conduct attacks. Read the rest of this entry »
Hammers and nails
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Opinion on 15/Sep/2011 00:20
Bryan Prescot: “When all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.â€
Agent Alex Marlow: “Conversely, sir, when you have a nail, you can bang at it all day with a screwdriver, a shoe or your hand and get nothing except hurt.
Whereas one good blow with the hammer makes the problem go away for good.â€
– From Do Unto Others by Michael Z. Williamson
It’s a good thing Syria has gun control…
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Opinion on 14/Sep/2011 00:22
“It’s a good thing Syria has gun control; otherwise the citizen-slaughtering troops could get hurt.”
– From a collection of reader comments to the East Valley Tribune, Arizona
9/11 and the Successful War
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 11/Sep/2011 08:59
9/11 and the Successful War is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By George Friedman
It has been 10 years since 9/11, and all of us who write about such things for a living are writing about it. That causes me to be wary. I prefer being the lonely voice, but the fact is that 9/11 was a defining moment in American history. On Sept. 12, 2001, few would have anticipated the course the resulting war would take — but then, few knew what to think. The nation was in shock. In retrospect, many speak with great wisdom about what should have been thought about 9/11 at the time and what should have been done in its aftermath. I am always interested in looking at what people actually said and did at the time.
The country was in shock, and shock was a reasonable response. The country was afraid, and fear was a reasonable response. Ten years later, we are all much wiser and sure that our wisdom was there from the beginning. But the truth is that, in retrospect, we know we would have done things superbly had we the authority. Few of us are being honest with ourselves. We were all shocked and frightened. Our wisdom came much later, when it had little impact. Yes, if we knew then what we know now we would have all bought Google stock. But we didn’t know things then that we know now, so it is all rather pointless to lecture those who had decisions to make in the midst of chaos.
Some wars are carefully planned, but even those wars rarely take place as expected. Think of the Germans in World War I, having planned the invasion of France for decades and with meticulous care. Nothing went as planned for either side, and the war did not take a course that was anticipated by anyone. Wars occur at unpredictable times, take unpredictable courses and have unexpected consequences. Who expected the American Civil War to take the course it did? We have been second-guessing Lincoln and Davis, Grant and Lee and all the rest for more than a century.
This particular war — the one that began on 9/11 and swept into Afghanistan, Iraq and other countries — is hard to second-guess because there are those who do not think it is a war. Some people, including President George W. Bush, seem to regard it as a criminal conspiracy. When Bush started talking about bringing al Qaeda to justice, he was talking about bringing them before the bar of justice. Imagine trying to arrest British sailors for burning Washington. War is not about bringing people to justice. It is about destroying their ability to wage war. The contemporary confusion between warfare and criminality creates profound confusion about the rules under which you operate. There are the rules of war as set forth in the Geneva Conventions, and there are criminal actions. The former are designed to facilitate the defense of national interests and involve killing people because of the uniform they wear. The latter is about punishing people for prior action. I have never sorted through what it was that the Bush administration thought it was doing.
This entire matter is made more complex by the fact that al Qaeda doesn’t wear a uniform. Under the Geneva Conventions, there is no protection for those who do not openly carry weapons or wear uniforms or at least armbands. They are regarded as violating the rules of war. If they are not protected by the rules of war then they must fall under criminal law by default. But criminal law is not really focused on preventing acts so much as it is on punishing them. And as satisfying as it is to capture someone who did something, the real point of the U.S. response to 9/11 was to prevent anyone else from doing something — killing and capturing people who have not done anything yet but who might. Read the rest of this entry »
What does WROL look like? The streets of Cairo, January 2, 2011 – Sam Tadros
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Opinion, Threat Watch on 10/Sep/2011 05:25
WROL- Without the Rule of Law
“Saturday was indescribable. Nothing that I write can describe the utter state of lawlessness that prevailed.
Every Egyptian prison was attacked by organized groups trying to free the prisoners inside. In the case of the prisons holding regular criminals this was done by their families and friends. In the case of the prisons with the political prisoners this was done by the Islamists.
Bulldozers were used in those attacks and the weapons available from the looting of police stations were available. Nearly all the prisons fell. The prison forces simply could not deal with such an onslaught and no reinforcements were available. Nearly every terrorist held in the Egyptian prisons from those that bombed the Alexandria Church less than a month ago to the Murderer of Anwar El Sadat was freed, the later reportedly being arrested again tonight.
On the streets of Cairo it was the scene of a jungle. With no law enforcement in town and the army at a loss at how to deal with it, it was the golden opportunity for everyone.
In a city that is surrounded with slums, thousands of thieves fell on their neighboring richer districts. People were robbed in broad daylight, houses were invaded, and stores looted and burned. Egypt had suddenly fallen back to the State of Nature.
Panicking, people started grabbing whatever weapon they could find and forming groups to protect their houses. As the day progressed the street defense committees became more organized.
Every building had its men standing in front of it with everything they could find from personal guns, knives to sticks. Women started preparing Molotov bombs using alcohol bottles.
Street committees started coordinating themselves. Every major crossroad had now groups of citizens stopping all passing cars checking their ID cards and searching the cars for weapons.
Machine guns were in high demand and were sold in the streets.”
– Sam Tadros, January 2, 2011, as quoted by The American Thinker.
Asakura Takakage Toshikage: “Do not yearn too much for a sword made by a famous smith.”
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Opinion on 10/Sep/2011 00:37
“Do not yearn too much for a sword made by a famous smith. This is because even if you give a good man a sword worth ten thousand coppers, he will not be able to beat a hundred men each holding a spear worth a hundred coppers.”
– Asakura Takakage Toshikage, 1462-1482
Col. Jeff Cooper: “Rifles are inanimate objects that have no will of their own.”
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Opinion on 7/Sep/2011 00:26
“Rifles are inanimate objects that have no will of their own. As such, they may be used by evil men for evil purposes.
While an evil man may not be persuaded by propaganda, he may certainly be corrected by good men with rifles.”
– Col. Jeff Cooper
Xenophon: “…if we surrender our arms we shall lose our lives as well.”
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Opinion on 3/Sep/2011 23:26
“The only things of value which we have at present are our arms and our courage.
So long as we keep our arms we fancy that we can make good use of our courage; but if we surrender our arms we shall lose our lives as well.”
– Xenophon, The Persian Expedition
When Heroes Become Bureaucrats
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Opinion on 28/Aug/2011 12:37
Why cops and firefighters stood by as a man drowned in San Francisco Bay
by Steven Greenhut
“On Memorial Day, a suicidal man waded into San Francisco Bay outside the city of Alameda and stood there for about an hour, neck-deep in chilly water, as about 75 bystanders watched. Local police and firefighters were called to the scene, but they refused to help. After the man drowned, the assembled “first responders†also refused to wade into the water to retrieve his body; they left that job for a bystander.
The incident sparked widespread outrage in northern California, and the response by the fire department and police only intensified the anger. The firefighters blamed local budget cuts for denying them the training and equipment necessary for cold-water rescues. The police said that they didn’t know if the man was dangerous and therefore couldn’t risk the safety of their officers.
After a local TV news crew asked him whether he would save a drowning child in the bay, Alameda fire chief Ricci Zombeck gave an answer that made him the butt of local talk-show mockery: “Well, if I was off duty, I would know what I would do, but I think you’re asking me my on-duty response, and I would have to stay within our policies and procedures, because that’s what’s required by our department to do.â€
Read the rest of this entry »
Why hasn’t crime increased in the current depression?
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Opinion on 28/Aug/2011 12:33
Bruce Graybill responds to this article, which discusses the question of, “Since the economy has gotten worse, why has the crime rate not increased?”:
Crime and the Great Recession
Jobs have fled, lawbreaking hasn’t risen—and criminologists are scratching their heads.
http://www.city-journal.org/2011/21_3_crime-decline.html#.Tlo5zStMrj8.facebook
Graybill says,
“It’s interesting that the author notes the predicted increase in property crime (citing auto thefts, robbery, burglary, etc.), in a recession like today’s, would be worse because the families are weaker and children more independent. But seemed a little puzzled as to why it wasn’t the case.
40 states now have ‘shall issue’ right to carry (concealed) laws, 8 have ‘may issue’ laws, and 2 deny a private citizen’s right to carry a firearm (Illinois and Wisconsin). FBI Uniform Crime Reports verify the states with ‘shall issue’ laws had demonstratively less crime that states that do not have shall issue laws, over the same time periods.
Add to this the 30 or so states that have passed various forms of castle doctrine laws, and you have a pretty simple logical basis for why crime has not increased in this depression.”
GLOCK 17 Technical Review
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Glock, Handguns, News, Opinion, Warrior Tools on 22/Aug/2011 23:50
Two reasons we love the military
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Opinion on 21/Aug/2011 12:50
“Two reasons we love the military:
1) Heroism, as I define it, is to make a great effort toward a good purpose, the greater the effort and better the purpose the more heroic. Soldiers in the field work round the clock at low pay and at considerable risk (a great effort) toward the purpose of protecting us (which if we like ourselves at all is a very good purpose). They are unquestionably heroic.
2) They are us, our relatives, our friends, we know them. Contrast all that, by the way, with other parts of the government and you’ll see why there is such a difference in perception.
– Jon Osborne
Protecting Your Home While You’re Traveling
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 24/Jul/2011 09:52
