Archive for category Threat Watch

Mexico’s Strategy

Mexico’s Strategy is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

By George Friedman

A few years ago, I wrote about Mexico possibly becoming a failed state because of the effect of the cartels on the country. Mexico may have come close to that, but it stabilized itself and took a different course instead — one of impressive economic growth in the face of instability.

Mexican Economics

Discussion of national strategy normally begins with the question of national security. But a discussion of Mexico’s strategy must begin with economics. This is because Mexico’s neighbor is the United States, whose military power in North America denies Mexico military options that other nations might have. But proximity to the United States does not deny Mexico economic options. Indeed, while the United States overwhelms Mexico from a national security standpoint, it offers possibilities for economic growth.

Mexico is now the world’s 14th-largest economy, just above South Korea and just below Australia. Its gross domestic product was $1.16 trillion in 2011. It grew by 3.8 percent in 2011 and 5.5 percent in 2010. Before a major contraction of 6.9 percent in 2009 following the 2008 crisis, Mexico’s GDP grew by an average of 3.3 percent in the five years between 2004 and 2008. When looked at in terms of purchasing power parity, a measure of GDP in terms of actual purchasing power, Mexico is the 11th-largest economy in the world, just behind France and Italy. It is also forecast to grow at just below 4 percent again this year, despite slowing global economic trends, thanks in part to rising U.S. consumption. Read the rest of this entry »

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Former U.S. Consulate Guard Pleads Guilty to Attempting to Communicate National Defense Information to China

Former U.S. Consulate Guard Pleads Guilty to Attempting to Communicate National Defense Information to China

Aug. 30, 2012

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How the U.S. is Fighting the Zeta Cartel

From: Danger Room

Fighting the Zeta Cartel

The violence in the Mexican border state of Nuevo Leon began Tuesday morning and continued into Wednesday. By the end, 30 bodies had turned up around the state with bullet wounds or had been dismembered. The cause was attributed to a seemingly never-ending war between the Zeta drug cartel and their rivals. And that may only be a prelude. Miguel Angel Treviño, or “Z-40,” has seized the leadership of the cartel from longtime chief Heriberto Lazcano, according to the Associated Press, which describes the new boss as a “brutal assassin” who favors cooking his enemies inside burning oil drums.

For those unnerving reasons, the Zetas have come to define the violence of the drug war, and have lead the U.S. and Mexican governments scrambling to fight them. Arguably Mexico’s most powerful drug cartel, the Zetas are now estimated to operate in half of the country, if not more, and have expanded into Guatemala. Aside from unleashing violence, extortion and kidnapping across much of their territory, the Zetas are responsible for the February 2011 death of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent Jaime Zapata.

Earlier this month, the Pentagon deployed 200 Marines to Guatemala in a sign the U.S. is getting more direct in going after the Zetas. The Pentagon stresses that the Marines will play a secondary role to the Guatemalans and are limited to merely tracking drug traffickers. But still, that’s a lot of Marines now operating in territory shared by the cartel. The U.S. also considers the operation to be only one part of a much larger strategy. Here are five aspects of that war.

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Information Wanted on Bank Robberies

FBI Seeks Assistance Locating Bank Robbery Suspects

Aug. 29, 2012

Robbery of Compass Bank in Houston

Aug. 29, 2012

Armed and Ready Bandit Linked to Three Bank Robberies in Santa Barbara Sought

Aug. 28, 2012

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Band Aid Bandit

Band-Aid Bandit Robs Bank in Houston

Aug. 25, 2012
– Houston

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Targeting Tribal Leaders: A New Militant Tactic in Sinai

Targeting Tribal Leaders: A New Militant Tactic in Sinai is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

By Ashley Lindsey

Militants killed Egyptian tribal leader Khalaf al-Menahy and his son Aug. 13 as the two were returning from a conference in east Sinai organized and attended by tribal leaders to denounce militancy, according to Sinai security forces. The senior al-Menahy was a prominent proponent of bolstering the Sinai Peninsula’s representation in Egypt’s parliament and of improving security in the region. He also was a prominent sheikh in the Sawarka tribe, said to be the largest in Sinai. Following his burial Aug. 13, the tribe vowed to seek vengeance.

This is the first reported case of militants attacking tribal leaders in Sinai. It comes soon after an attack on Egyptian security forces Aug. 5 and an attack on military checkpoints in northern Sinai on Aug. 8.

Although the militant tactic of targeting tribal leaders is new to Sinai, the tactic has been common in conflict zones in the Middle East and South Asia, such as in Yemen, Iraq and the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region. Though it can offer many benefits to these militants — including weakening the targeted tribe and possibly leading to its co-option — these kinds of attacks tend to only succeed in zones with little government control and against tribes that cannot effectively retaliate. Examining similar instances of this tactic thus provides a helpful tool for assessing the consequences of attacks against tribal elements in the Sinai Peninsula. Read the rest of this entry »

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LA Bank Robbery

Make It Quick Bandit Linked to Bank Robbery at Gardena Bank

Aug. 24, 2012
– Los Angeles

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North Carolina Resident Anes Subasic Sentenced for Terrorism Violations

From FBI:

NEW BERN, NC—United States Attorney Thomas G. Walker announced that in federal court today, United States District Judge Louise W. Flanagan sentenced Anes Subasic, 36, a naturalized U.S. citizen and resident of North Carolina, to 360 months in prison, followed by five years’ supervised release, and a $1,000 fine. “We must be ever vigilant in the pursuit of those who seek to destroy our way of life. This prosecution is evidence of our commitment to do so,” stated U.S. Attorney Thomas G. Walker.

Subasic was tried separately on two occasions for immigration and terrorism offenses. In September 2011, Subasic was found guilty of two counts of unlawful procurement of citizenship. On June 14, 2012, Subasic was found guilty of conspiring to provide material support to terrorists, Title 18, United States Code, Section 2339A; and conspiracy to murder, kidnap, maim, and injure persons abroad, Title 18, United States Code, Section 956(a). Read the rest of this entry »

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NYPD Shoots 9 Civilians

It is bad enough that the citizens of New York are not allowed to protect themselves, now the police are responsible for shooting nine innocents. The mantra of anti-gunners is, “you don’t need a gun, just call the police.” Tell that to the nine New Yorkers who were shot by those who were sworn to “serve and protect” the public. Had one person in the area been allowed to carry a concealed gun and was in fact carrying, I submit to the reader that the gunman would have been stopped before the police arrived.

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Bank Robberies

Robbery of US Century Bank in Miami

Aug. 17, 2012
– Miami

Authorities Request Assistance from Public to Locate Fugitives

Aug. 15, 2012
– Oklahoma City

Robbery of Key Bank Branch in Denver

Aug. 15, 2012
– Denver

Robbery of U.S. Bank Branch in St. Louis Park

Aug. 15, 2012
– Minneapolis

FBI Releases New Photo in Woodforest National Bank Branch Robbery Inside Walmart

Aug. 15, 2012
– Houston

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Domestic Terrorism: A Persistent Threat in the United States

Domestic Terrorism: A Persistent Threat in the United States is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

By Scott Stewart

A string of incidents over the past month has served as a reminder that despite the intense, decadelong focus on the jihadist threat, domestic terrorism is still an issue in the United States. On Aug. 5, Wade Page opened fire on the congregation of a Sikh temple in Oak Creek, Wis., killing six and wounding three others. Though Page killed himself and did not leave any evidence explicitly listing his motives for the attack, his long association with the white supremacist movement was clearly a factor in his target choice.

On Aug. 15, Floyd Corkins shot and wounded a security guard in the lobby of the Family Research Council’s office in Washington after the guard blocked him from entering the office. Corkins reportedly was carrying a bag containing a box of ammunition and a number of Chick-fil-A sandwiches. He apparently targeted the Family Research Council because of its public support for Chick-fil-A in the wake of the controversy over statements made by the fast food chain’s founder regarding gay marriage. According to media reports, Corkins said, “I don’t like your politics,” before opening fire. Read the rest of this entry »

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Top U.S. General: We Don’t Know Why Afghan Troops Are Killing Us

From: Danger Room

During the past several weeks, Afghan forces have turned their guns on the U.S. troops that mentor them with increasing frequency. The Afghan troops have killed at least 40 U.S. and allied forces this year, the most since the war began, and Karzai’s government insists the blame lies with Pakistani infiltrators, not Afghans themselves. Allen diplomatically said he was “looking forward to the Afghans providing us with the intelligence” they’re using to reach that conclusion.

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Iraqi Pleads Guilty To Terrorism

Iraqi National Pleads Guilty to 12-Count Terrorism Indictment in Kentucky

Aug. 21, 2012
– Louisville

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Miami Bank Robbed

Chase Bank Branch in Miami Robbed

Aug. 22, 2012
– Miami

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California Tries to Ban More Guns

From NRA-ILA:

Senate Bill 249, as amended, would make a small but profound change to the definition in state law of what constitutes a detachable magazine for a semi-automatic firearm.  By doing so, as many as one million semi-automatic rifles (with a “bullet button” or other magazine locking device), which were legally sold in California over the last twelve years, would become illegal on July 1, 2013.  If you’re one of the hundreds-of-thousands of Californians who purchased one of these modern sporting rifles (a centerfire semi-automatic rifle with a magazine locking device that prevents detachment of the magazine without a bullet or tool) since 2000, your firearm will have to be surrendered or may be confiscated.

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