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Archive for category Threat Watch
The Moscow Attack and Airport Security
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 28/Jan/2011 09:00
The Moscow Attack and Airport Security is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Scott Stewart
The Jan. 24 bombing at Moscow’s Domodedovo International Airport killed 35 people and injured more than 160. The attack occurred at approximately 4:40 p.m. as passengers from several arriving international flights were leaving the airport after clearing immigration and customs. The attacker (or attackers; reports are still conflicting over whether the attack was conducted by a man or a man and a woman together) entered the international arrivals hall of the airport, a part of the facility that is outside the secure area and that is commonly packed with crowds of relatives and taxi and limo drivers waiting to meet travelers.
Once the attacker was in the midst of the waiting crowd and exiting passengers, the improvised explosive device that he (or she) carried was detonated. It is not clear at this point whether the device was command-detonated by the attacker as a traditional suicide bomb or if the device was remotely detonated by another person. The attack was most likely staged by Islamist militants from Russia’s Northern Caucasus region who have conducted a long series of attacks in Russia, including the Aug. 24, 2004, suicide bombings that destroyed two Russian airliners.
The Domodedovo attack serves as a striking illustration of several trends we have been following for years now, including the difficulty of preventing attacks against soft targets, the resourcefulness of militants in identifying such targets and the fixation militants have on aviation-related targets. Read the rest of this entry »
U.S. consulate employee shoots dead 2 armed men in Pakistan
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 27/Jan/2011 23:01
Islamabad, Pakistan —
“An employee of the U.S. consulate in Lahore shot and killed two armed Pakistani men on a motorcycle Thursday in what the employee told police was an act of self-defense after the men approached his car and one of them brandished a pistol, authorities said.One of the men on the motorcycle then pulled out a handgun, Tareen said. The consulate employee pulled out his own handgun and fired at the two men several times. One of the men died at the scene and the other later at a local hospital. Tareen said the second man on the motorcycle also had a pistol, and that both handguns were loaded.”
US woman fatally wounded in Mexico, dies in South Texas hospital
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 26/Jan/2011 23:08
by Terry Wallace, Associated Press
DALLAS — “A woman described by police as a U.S. missionary died at a South Texas hospital Wednesday after her husband brought her mortally wounded over a Rio Grande bridge from Mexico, where he said she had been shot in the head by gunmen in a pickup truck.
Nancy Davis, 59, died in a McAllen hospital about 90 minutes after her husband drove the couple’s truck against traffic across the Pharr International Bridge, according to a statement issued by the Pharr Police Department.
Her husband told investigators that he and his wife were traveling about 70 miles south of the Mexican border city of Reynosa when gunmen in a pickup truck tried to stop them. When the Davises sped up, the gunmen fired, wounding Nancy Davis in the head, the statement said.”
http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2011/01/26/5931622-husband-us-missionary-fatally-wounded-in-mexico
South Korean navy commandos kill Somalian pirates and release captured crew
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 21/Jan/2011 22:28
AFP/HO/File – This photo, released by the Defence Ministry, shows South Korean navy UDT/SEAL members capturing Somali pirates
SEOUL (AFP) – Seoul newspapers heaped praise on South Korean navy commandos who battled pirates off the coast of Somalia to release captured crew.
“The Cheongha Unit salvages national pride,” declared the Dong-A Ilbo’s frontpage banner headline over a colour photo of SEAL special forces storming a South Korean freighter that had been taken by pirates in the Indian Ocean.
In a pre-dawn operation about 1,300 kilometres (800 miles) off northeast Somalia on Friday, the elite troops freed all the hostages, killing eight pirates and capturing five others in compartment-to-compartment battles.
The Korea Times said the success would serve as a “clear message that Seoul will no longer compromise with pirates, terrorists and hijackers.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/skoreasomaliapiracy;_ylt=AiNRHod4YCIrxbbloczPdCt0fNdF
Congressional Security and the Tucson Shooting
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 13/Jan/2011 15:15
Congressional Security and the Tucson Shooting is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Fred Burton and Sean Noonan
Following the Jan. 8 shooting of U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Federal District Judge John McCarthy Roll and 17 others in Tucson, Arizona, discussion has focused on the motivations and ideology of the accused shooter, Jared Loughner. While it was important to make a quick assessment of Loughner’s profile in order to evaluate the possibility of an organized threat, all the available evidence (though not conclusive) indicates that he acted alone.
For the most part, discussion of the event has not touched on a re-evaluation of security for members of Congress. STRATFOR has previously analyzed the issues surrounding presidential security, and while there are common concerns in protecting all branches of government, Congress and the judiciary involve much larger numbers of people — 535 representatives and senators and more than 3,000 federal judges. And members of Congress put a high priority on public accessibility, which makes them more vulnerable.
A common mindset of politicians and their staffers is that better security will limit their accessibility and thus hinder their ability to do their job (and win elections). In fact, there are a number of measures that members of Congress and other public officials can institute for better security without limiting accessibility. While staying in a secure facility would be the safest, it isn’t a realistic option. What is realistic — and effective — is the prudent employment of protective intelligence as well as some measure of physical protection on the move. Read the rest of this entry »
The Turkish Role in Negotiations with Iran
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 12/Jan/2011 09:13
The Turkish Role in Negotiations with Iran is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By George Friedman
The P-5+1 talks with Iran will resume Jan. 21-22. For those not tuned into the obscure jargon of the diplomatic world, these are the talks between the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia), plus Germany — hence, P-5+1. These six countries will be negotiating with one country, Iran. The meetings will take place in Istanbul under the aegis of yet another country, Turkey. Turkey has said it would only host this meeting, not mediate it. It will be difficult for Turkey to stay in this role.
The Iranians have clearly learned from the North Koreans, who have turned their nuclear program into a framework for entangling five major powers (the United States, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea) into treating North Korea as their diplomatic equal. For North Korea, whose goal since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the absorption of China with international trade has come down to regime survival, being treated as a serious power has been a major diplomatic coup. The mere threat of nuclear weapons development has succeeded in doing that. When you step back and consider that North Korea’s economy is among the most destitute of Third World countries and its nuclear capability is far from proven, getting to be the one being persuaded to talk with five major powers (and frequently refusing and then being coaxed) has been quite an achievement. Read the rest of this entry »
Car Theft by Remote Control
Posted by Gary in Comms, Threat Watch on 9/Jan/2011 16:15
From: MIT
Car thieves of the future might be able to get into a car and drive away without forced entry and without needing a physical key, according to new research that will be presented at the Network and Distributed System Security Symposium next month in San Diego, California.
The researchers successfully attacked eight car manufacturers’ passive keyless entry and start systems—wireless key fobs that open a car’s doors and start the engine by proximity alone.
The Mohammed Cartoon Dust Has Not Settled
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 6/Jan/2011 15:47
The Mohammed Cartoon Dust Has Not Settled is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Scott Stewart
When one considers all of the people and places in the West targeted by transnational jihadists over the past few years, iconic targets such as New York’s Times Square, the London Metro and the Eiffel Tower come to mind. There are also certain target sets such as airlines and subways that jihadists focus on more than others. Upon careful reflection, however, it is hard to find any target set that has been more of a magnet for transnational jihadist ire over the past year than the small group of cartoonists and newspapers involved in the Mohammed cartoon controversy.
Every year STRATFOR publishes a forecast of the jihadist movement for the coming year. As we were working on that project for this year, we were struck by the number of plots in 2010 that involved the cartoon controversy — and by the number of those plots that had transnational dimensions, rather than plots that involved only local grassroots operatives. (The 2011 jihadist forecast will be available to STRATFOR members in the coming weeks.)
Groups such as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have gone to great lengths to keep the topic of the Mohammed cartoons burning in the consciousness of radical Islamists, whether they are lone wolves or part of an organized jihadist group, and those efforts are obviously bearing fruit. Because of this, we anticipate that plots against cartoon-related targets will continue into the foreseeable future. Read the rest of this entry »
Egypt and the Destruction of Churches: Strategic Implications
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 4/Jan/2011 17:36
Egypt and the Destruction of Churches: Strategic Implications is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By George Friedman
Over the past few days, Christian churches have been attacked in at least two countries — Nigeria and Egypt — while small packages containing improvised explosive devices were placed on the doorsteps of Christian families in Iraq. Attacks against Christians are not uncommon in the Islamic world, driven by local issues and groups, and it is unclear whether these latest attacks were simply coincidental and do not raise the threat to a new level or whether they indicate the existence of a new, coordinated, international initiative. There is a strong case to be made for the idea that there is nothing new in all of this.
Yet I am struck by the close timing of events in three distant and dispersed countries. Certainly, Egyptian intelligence services are looking for any regional connections (e.g., whether Iraqi operatives recruited the Egyptian bomber). While there have been previous bombings in Egypt, they have focused on tourists, not churches. What is important is this: If the recent attacks are not coincidental, then a coordinated campaign is being conducted against Christian churches that spans at least these countries. And it is a network that has evaded detection by intelligence services.
Obviously, this is speculative. What is clear, however, is that the attack on a church in one country — Egypt — is far from common and was particularly destructive. Egypt has been relatively quiet in terms of terrorism, and there have been few recent attacks on the large Coptic Christian population. The Egyptian government has been effective in ruthlessly suppressing Islamist extremists and has been active in sharing intelligence on terrorism with American, Israeli and other Muslim governments. Its intelligence apparatus has been one of the mainstays of global efforts to limit terrorism as well as keep Egypt’s domestic opposition in check.
Therefore, the attack in Egypt is significant for no other reason than that it happened and represents a failure of Egyptian security. While such failures are inevitable, what made this failure significant was that it occurred in tight sequence with attacks on multiple Christian targets in Iraq and Nigeria and after a threat al Qaeda made last month against Egyptian Copts. This was a warning, which in my mind increases the possibility of coordinated action, but the Egyptians failed to block it. Read the rest of this entry »
Separating Terror from Terrorism
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 3/Jan/2011 16:44
Separating Terror from Terrorism is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Scott Stewart
On Dec. 15, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) sent a joint bulletin to state and local law enforcement agencies expressing their concern that terrorists may attack a large public gathering in a major U.S. metropolitan area during the 2010 holiday season. That concern was echoed by contacts at the FBI and elsewhere who told STRATFOR they were almost certain there was going to be a terrorist attack launched against the United States over Christmas.
Certainly, attacks during the December holiday season are not unusual. There is a history of such attacks, from the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 on Dec. 21, 1988, and the thwarted millennium attacks in December 1999 and January 2000 to the post-9/11 airliner attacks by shoe bomber Richard Reid on Dec. 22, 2001, and by underwear bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab on Dec. 25, 2009. Some of these plots have even stemmed from the grassroots. In December 2006, Derrick Shareef was arrested while planning an attack he hoped to launch against an Illinois shopping mall on Dec. 22.
Mass gatherings in large metropolitan areas have also been repeatedly targeted by jihadist groups and lone wolves. In addition to past attacks and plots directed against the subway systems in major cities such as Madrid, London, New York and Washington, 2010 saw failed attacks against the crowds in New York’s Times Square on May 1 and in Pioneer Courthouse Square in downtown Portland, Ore., on Nov. 26. Read the rest of this entry »
Mexican Gunmen Kidnap Last Police Officer In Guadalupe
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 31/Dec/2010 18:31
“Gunmen kidnapped a 28-year-old woman who was the sole police officer in the town of Guadalupe, close to the violent northern border city of Ciudad Juarez, state officials said.
Erika Gandara ... house set on fire. Photo: AFP
“Some ten unidentified gunmen on Thursday set Erika Gandara’s home ablaze and torched two cars parked outside before abducting her, witnesses told the state of Chihuahua prosecutor’s office.
Gandara was the last police officer in Guadalupe, located on the US-Mexico border some 60 kilometres south-east of Ciudad Juarez, after her colleagues either resigned and fled or were killed.”
http://www.smh.com.au/world/gunmen-kidnap-towns-female-lone-ranger-28-20101228-198qh.html
Hot Zones in 2011
Posted by Brian in Threat Watch on 31/Dec/2010 17:41
Foreign Policy has a run down of potential conflicts and wars in the coming year. Here is the quick list:
Côte d’Ivoire, Colombia, Zimbabwe, Iraq, Venezuela, Sudan, Mexico, Guatemala, Haiti, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Somalia, Lebanon, Nigeria, Guinea, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Rumblings of wide-scale war in the Muslim world: Sunni vs. Shia
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 27/Dec/2010 23:03
This guy was once a jet pilot in the military. The first part of his presentation is an interesting overview of some serious trouble brewing in the Muslim world that could have a profound affect on the US and other countries all around the planet (the second part of this presentation is clearly a sales pitch for a set of financial products, we make no recommendation; don’t know if this group is any good or not – we have no financial ties with them).
http://www.agorafinancial.com/reports/OST/NewWar/vp/OST_NewWar_vp.php?code=LOSTLC08
Fort Hood Soldier Tells CNN: Hasan Yelled “Allahu Akbarâ€
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 21/Dec/2010 19:30
Wikileaks – U.S. government is deeply concerned that terrorist organizations are gaining a foothold in Latin America
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 21/Dec/2010 01:32
The U.S. government is deeply concerned Iran and the Hezbollah terrorist organizations are gaining a foothold in Latin America, according to classified documents released by WikiLeaks and reviewed by WND.
Among the concerns is that Iranian-backed militants may attempt to infiltrate the U.S. or use Latin America as a staging ground for anti-American attacks, it has emerged.
Also, the U.S. caught Iran shipping explosives and attempting to ship unmanned aerial vehicles to Venezuela, the cables revealed.
“Washington analysts assess that Tehran is reaching out to Latin American countries in order to reduce its diplomatic isolation and increase ties to leftist countries in the region that Tehran perceives may share its anti-U.S. agenda,” read a cable from the State Department. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s office posed a number of questions for responses from “Iran watchers and the Iran Regional Presence Office.”
WND reported in May 2010 that hundreds of illegal aliens from countries known to support and sponsor terrorism were sneaking across the U.S.-Mexico border.
The report cited documentation of illegal aliens from Afghanistan, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Sudan and Yemen. Other illegals were from Armenia, Bosnia, Ghana, Jordan, Kenya, Morocco, Sudan, Uzbekistan, Botswana and Turkey.
Based on U.S. Border Patrol statistics, there were
30,147 [illegals other than Mexicans] apprehended in fiscal year 2003;
44, 614 in fiscal year 2004;
165,178 in fiscal year 2005; and
108,025 in fiscal year 2006.
Most were caught along the U.S. Southwest border.”