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Egypt, Israel and a Strategic Reconsideration

Egypt, Israel and a Strategic Reconsideration is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

By George Friedman

The events in Egypt have sent shock waves through Israel. The 1978 Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel have been the bedrock of Israeli national security. In three of the four wars Israel fought before the accords, a catastrophic outcome for Israel was conceivable. In 1948, 1967 and 1973, credible scenarios existed in which the Israelis were defeated and the state of Israel ceased to exist. In 1973, it appeared for several days that one of those scenarios was unfolding.

The survival of Israel was no longer at stake after 1978. In the 1982 invasion of Lebanon, the various Palestinian intifadas and the wars with Hezbollah in 2006 and Hamas in Gaza in 2008, Israeli interests were involved, but not survival. There is a huge difference between the two. Israel had achieved a geopolitical ideal after 1978 in which it had divided and effectively made peace with two of the four Arab states that bordered it, and neutralized one of those states. The treaty with Egypt removed the threat to the Negev and the southern coastal approaches to Tel Aviv.

The agreement with Jordan in 1994, which formalized a long-standing relationship, secured the longest and most vulnerable border along the Jordan River. The situation in Lebanon was such that whatever threat emerged from there was limited. Only Syria remained hostile but, by itself, it could not threaten Israel. Damascus was far more focused on Lebanon anyway. As for the Palestinians, they posed a problem for Israel, but without the foreign military forces along the frontiers, the Palestinians could trouble but not destroy Israel. Israel’s existence was not at stake, nor was it an issue for 33 years. Read the rest of this entry »

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Video: First Flight for Navy’s Killer Drone

“America’s fleet of 11 big-deck aircraft carriers just got a lot closer to becoming a lot more dangerous. On Friday afternoon, Northrop Grumman’s X-47B, a prototype for the Navy’s first carrier-capable killer drone, flew for the first time from Edwards Air Force Base in California.”

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/navys-killer-drone-takes-off-targets-2013-carrier-test/

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Social Media as a Tool for Protest

Social Media as a Tool for Protest is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

By Marko Papic and Sean Noonan

Internet services were reportedly restored in Egypt on Feb. 2 after being completely shut down for two days. Egyptian authorities unplugged the last Internet service provider (ISP) still operating Jan. 31 amidst ongoing protests across the country. The other four providers in Egypt — Link Egypt, Vodafone/Raya, Telecom Egypt and Etisalat Misr — were shut down as the crisis boiled over on Jan. 27. Commentators immediately assumed this was a response to the organizational capabilities of social media websites that Cairo could not completely block from public access.

The role of social media in protests and revolutions has garnered considerable media attention in recent years. Current conventional wisdom has it that social networks have made regime change easier to organize and execute. An underlying assumption is that social media is making it more difficult to sustain an authoritarian regime — even for hardened autocracies like Iran and Myanmar — which could usher in a new wave of democratization around the globe. In a Jan. 27 YouTube interview, U.S. President Barack Obama went as far as to compare social networking to universal liberties such as freedom of speech.

Social media alone, however, do not instigate revolutions. They are no more responsible for the recent unrest in Tunisia and Egypt than cassette-tape recordings of Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini speeches were responsible for the 1979 revolution in Iran. Social media are tools that allow revolutionary groups to lower the costs of participation, organization, recruitment and training. But like any tool, social media have inherent weaknesses and strengths, and their effectiveness depends on how effectively leaders use them and how accessible they are to people who know how to use them. Read the rest of this entry »

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al-Qaeda on the verge of manufacturing a nuclear weapon?

“Documents released by Wikileaks disclose that al-Qaeda is on the verge of manufacturing a nuclear weapon.

At a Nato meeting in January 2009, security chiefs briefed member states that al-Qaida was plotting a program of “dirty radioactive IEDs”, makeshift nuclear roadside bombs that could be used against British troops in Afghanistan.

As well as causing a large explosion, a “dirty bomb” attack would contaminate the area for many years.

Freight trains were found to be carrying weapons-grade nuclear material across the Kazakhstan-Russia border, highly enriched uranium was transported across Uganda by bus, and a “small time hustler” in Lisbon offered to sell radioactive plates stolen from Chernobyl.

In one incident in September 2009, two employees at the Rossing Uranium Mine in Namibia smuggled almost half a ton of uranium concentrate powder – yellowcake – out of the compound in plastic bags.”

http://israelmatzav.blogspot.com/2011/02/al-qaeda-on-brink-of-nuclear-bomb.html

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Female Vets Much More Likely to Commit Suicide, Study Finds

“The suicide rate among young female U.S. military veterans is nearly three times higher than among civilian women, a new study has found.”

http://news.health.com/2010/12/02/female-vets-much-more-likely-to-commit-suicide-study-finds/?pkw=outbrain-ha

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Alert from National Association for Gun Rights

from Dudley Brown, Executive Director:

“I’ve just received word from inside sources in the U.S. Senate.

Senate Democrats are planning to execute a sneak attack on gun rights as soon as TODAY!

Their plan is to sneak Carolyn McCarthy’s Magazine Ban into law as an amendment to the Federal Aviation Administration Bill, a routine piece of generally non-controversial legislation.

And they hope YOU won’t notice.

That’s why you and I need to make our voices heard RIGHT NOW!

We need to let them know we’re watching them like a hawk!”

http://paracom.paramountcommunication.com/hostedemail/email.htm?h=019fdf348072f1ef988bc49ffc01f45b&CID=7927217092&ch=B863910850A1AC21D6304EAE6062FCD2

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Mubarak Declines to Run for Re-Election

This report republished with permission of Stratfor.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said Feb. 1 he would not seek another term as president in elections slated for September but that he will complete his current term. In a televised national address, his second since the Egyptian unrest began the previous week, Mubarak said he would use the remainder of his term to oversee the transition of power. He also called on the parliament to amend the Egyptian Constitution’s Article 76 (which narrows the pool of potential presidential candidates) and Article 77 (which allows for unlimited presidential terms). It is currently unclear whether these measures will be considered.

The opposition immediately rejected the pronouncement. Each political concession offered during this crisis by the Egyptian political establishment — which until this point had ruled with absolute authority since the 1950s — has only emboldened the opposition. Unrest is thus likely to continue, which means the Egyptian military likely will attempt to force Mubarak to step down before the elections. However, even this will not likely resolve matters, as the need to create a neutral caretaker government until elections can be held will be the basis for further struggles between the regime and the opposition.

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Ed Schultz interview with Joe Zamudio

“The solution is not more laws, the solution is helping people.”

Zamudio: “Sir, when I came through the door I had my hand on my pistol and I clicked the safety off. I was ready to kill him, but I didn’t have to do that and I was very blessed that I didn’t have to go to that place…all I had to do was help.”

Schultz: “You would have used that firearm?”

Zamudio: “You’re damn right. This is my country, my town, you don’t get to walk around hurting people, killing innocents and little girls – it’s not right, man.”

Schultz: “How do you feel about the gun laws in Arizona?”

Zamudio: “You know, I carry a gun everywhere I go, sir. Honestly, I believe that you can make as many laws as you want , people who want guns are going to get them…criminals can get guns any way they want.

You can make as many laws as you want, it’s not going to stop anybody…that’s not the solution, the solution is helping people, taking care of people…I think our answer is to help people and not to argue about whether or not we’re allowed to own guns. We live in America and we’re allowed to own guns.”

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Missouri Soldier Returns home From Afghanistan, Surprises Children At Basketball Game

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Joe Zamudio, Tuscon Sheepdog, interviewed by Liberty Watch Radio

Liberty Watch Radio interview with Joe Zamudio who was present at the site of the January 8 shooting of 18 people, and helped restrain the perpetrator.

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2 Officers Killed in St Petersburg Florida

From: Officer.com

The officers had come to arrest Hydra Lacy Jr., 39, on an aggravated battery charge, and investigators believe he is the one who opened fire on the officers, police spokesman Michael Puetz said. He said Lacy had a long record that includes convictions for armed robbery and sexual battery.

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On Sheep, Wolves, and Sheepdogs

LTC Dave Grossman (RET)

By LTC Dave Grossman (RET)

“One Vietnam veteran, an old retired colonel, once said this to me: “Most of the people in our society are sheep. They are kind, gentle, productive creatures who can only hurt one another by accident.”

… We may well be in the most violent times in history, but violence is still remarkably rare. This is because most citizens are kind, decent people who are not capable of hurting each other, except by accident or under extreme provocation. They are sheep.

I mean nothing negative by calling them sheep. To me it is like the pretty, blue robin’s egg. Inside it is soft and gooey but someday it will grow into something wonderful. But the egg cannot survive without its hard blue shell. Police officers, soldiers, and other warriors are like that shell, and someday the civilization they protect will grow into something wonderful. For now, though, they need warriors to protect them from the predators.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Don’t Aim for the Upper Chest?

“Aiming for the Upper Chest or Central Mass results in effective shot placement. This is a reasonable theory if no one is moving. In a real life self defense situation, you cannot expect that the assailant to stand still like a target on a shooting range.

This series is produced for DownRange TV by Ralph Mroz and David Kenik.

Ralph Mroz and David Kenik are the people behind the Armed Response DVD series. These video programs avoid both the simplistic advice that is too often given for armed self-defense, and on the other end of the spectrum, the over-macho “high-speed” “tactical” advice that is also both unrealistic and too prevalent. Instead the focus is on what is realistically possible for most people to do in these extreme circumstances. Mroz was a police officer for almost 20 years, most recently assigned to his county’s drug task force; Kenik is the firearms instructor for the Lake Arthur, NM police department.”

video here:

http://www.downrange.tv/blog/armed-response-dont-aim-for-the-upper-chest/8129/

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Armed Citizens’ Legal Defense Network

Dealing with the legal aftermath of a self-defense shooting

“The Armed Citizens’ Legal Defense Network, LLC is an organization of gun owners pooling their strength to protect one another when, after using a gun in self defense, a member comes under scrutiny of the legal system.

Just as the earliest labor unions were mere groups of workers joined together to prevent abuse of individual workers, Network members have joined, not because they expect to get in a shooting, but because they are well aware of the abuses the legal system can enact against the innocent man or women forced to use a gun to defend self or family.”

Get two free informative PDF bookletss (and they’re really free, no log-in, they don’t ask for info, just click and download).

One helps you learn more about self-defense law and what happens in the criminal justice system after a self-defense shooting. The other is a free 46-page PDF telling the story of a Tucson, AZ man, assaulted in his own driveway by three people and the two trials he went through defending against criminal charges the Pima County prosecutor brought against him not once, but twice, in the wake of the attack.

http://armedcitizensnetwork.org/general-network-information

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Ohio Officer Dies Decades After Shooting

From: Officer.com

Two weeks before he was to take the job of Columbus police sketch artist, Officer Tom Hayes walked into a Clintonville convenience store to check on a reported disturbance.

It was 2:25 a.m. Dec. 18, 1979. Court testimony later revealed that at least one of the two teenagers in the store had been drinking and smoking marijuana and had taken LSD. Hayes, 30, tried to arrest them on curfew violations.

During a scuffle, one of the teenagers pulled out a gun and shot Hayes in the back, permanently paralyzing him from the waist down.

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