The rise of the Islamic State will inspire other jihadist groups to claim their own caliphates and emirates. In the long run, the extremism of these contrived dominions and the competition among them will undermine the jihadist movement. However, before that happens, the world will witness much upheaval.
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Posts Tagged islamic state
The Virtue of Subtlety: A U.S. Strategy Against the Islamic State
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 18/Sep/2014 07:30
“The Virtue of Subtlety: A U.S. Strategy Against the Islamic State is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By George Friedman
U.S. President Barack Obama said recently that he had no strategy as yet toward the Islamic State but that he would present a plan on Wednesday. It is important for a president to know when he has no strategy. It is not necessarily wise to announce it, as friends will be frightened and enemies delighted. A president must know what it is he does not know, and he should remain calm in pursuit of it, but there is no obligation to be honest about it.
This is particularly true because, in a certain sense, Obama has a strategy, though it is not necessarily one he likes. Strategy is something that emerges from reality, while tactics might be chosen. Given the situation, the United States has an unavoidable strategy. There are options and uncertainties for employing it. Let us consider some of the things that Obama does know.
The Formation of National Strategy
There are serious crises on the northern and southern edges of the Black Sea Basin. There is no crisis in the Black Sea itself, but it is surrounded by crises. The United States has been concerned about the status of Russia ever since U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt negotiated the end of the Russo-Japanese war in 1905. The United States has been concerned about the Middle East since U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower forced the British to retreat from Suez in 1956. As a result, the United States inherited — or seized — the British position. Read the rest of this entry »
As Caliphates Compete, Radical Islam Will Eventually Weaken
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 12/Sep/2014 12:48
“As Caliphates Compete, Radical Islam Will Eventually Weaken is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
Analysis
In a 52-minute video that surfaced in late August, Abubakar Shekau, the head of Nigerian jihadist group Boko Haram, spoke of an Islamic State in northeastern Nigeria. The statement came two months after Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the chief of the transnational jihadist movement in Syria and Iraq, declared the re-establishment of the caliphate, renaming the group the Islamic State. Though likely inspired by the Islamic State, Boko Haram is not simply mimicking its more powerful Syrian-Iraqi counterpart; it is taking its cue from the Nigeria-based Sokoto Caliphate, which was established in the early 1800s and existed for almost a century until Britain gained control of the region.
The Caliphate’s Role in History
According to classical Muslim political theorists, there can be only one caliphate for the entire Muslim global community, or ummah. In practice, though, there have been rival claimants to authority and even competing caliphates throughout the history of Islam. In our July 1 analysis on the subject, Stratfor explained not only how multiple emirates and sultanates emerged independently of the caliphate but also that there were rival caliphates — for example, the Abbasid in Baghdad (749-1258), Umayyad in the Iberian Peninsula (929-1031) and Fatimid in Cairo (909-1171).
Read the rest of this entry »
Terrorism as Theater
“Terrorism as Theater is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By Robert D. Kaplan
The beheading of American journalist James Foley by the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq was much more than an altogether gruesome and tragic affair: rather, it was a very sophisticated and professional film production deliberately punctuated with powerful symbols. Foley was dressed in an orange jumpsuit reminiscent of the Muslim prisoners held by the United States at Guantanamo Bay. He made his confession forcefully, as if well rehearsed. His executioner, masked and clad in black, made an equally long statement in a calm, British accent, again, as if rehearsed. It was as if the killing was secondary to the message being sent. Read the rest of this entry »
What It Will Take To Kill ISIS
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 29/Aug/2014 12:16
From The Federalist:
Killing the IS requires neither more nor less than waging war—not as the former administration waged its “war on terror,†nor by the current administration’s pinpricks, nor according to the too-clever-by-half stratagems taught in today’s politically correct military war colleges, but rather by war in the dictionary meaning of the word. To make war is to kill the spirit as well as the body of the enemy, so terribly as to make sure that it will not rise again, and that nobody will want to imitate it. (emphasis added)
In Iraq, the United States and Iran Align Against the Islamic State
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 26/Aug/2014 12:36
“In Iraq, the United States and Iran Align Against the Islamic State is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
Since June, a great deal of international focus has been on Iraq, where the transnational jihadist movement Islamic State took over large swaths of the country’s Sunni-majority areas and declared the re-establishment of the caliphate. Despite the global attention on the country, especially given U.S. military operations against the Islamic State, U.S.-Iranian cooperation against the jihadist group — a significant dynamic — has gone largely unnoticed. A convergence of interests, particularly concerning the Iraqi central and Kurdish regional governments, has made it necessary for Washington and Tehran to at least coordinate their actions. However, mistrust and domestic opposition will continue hampering this cooperation.
Secretary of Defense: “ISIS beyond anything we have seen”
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 22/Aug/2014 14:00
Yazidis vs ISIS
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 21/Aug/2014 12:18
From Townhall.com:
What’s happening to this peaceful group of people is appalling. But the Yazidis are fighting back. Kurdish forces in Syria have already trained “hundreds” of them, according to Reuters, all of whom are now reportedly returning to the battlefield in Iraq
Journalist Slaughtered By ISIS
Posted by Brian in Threat Watch on 20/Aug/2014 12:15
From Townhall:
The terrorist group ISIS has allegedly beheaded American journalist James Wright Foley on video in Iraq in order to send a message to the United States.
Kurdish Forces Push Back Against Islamic State
From Rudaw:
Rudaw reporter says that the Peshmerga have made progress in their counteroffensive near Zumar where they intend to cut off the IS militants from retreating into Syria.
“We decided to go on the offensive and fight the terrorists to the last breath,†said Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani Monday afternoon. “We have ordered the Peshmerga to attack the terrorists and enemies of Kurdistan with all their power.â€
Iraq: Examining the Professed Caliphate
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 9/Jul/2014 07:42
“Iraq: Examining the Professed Caliphate is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
The Islamic State, previously known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, has changed its name, but otherwise the militant group remains the same. Over the past weekend, a spokesman for the group announced that it had established a caliphate stretching from Diyala province, Iraq, to Aleppo, Syria. The caliphate is a political institution that the Islamic State claims will govern the global Muslim community. “Iraq” and “Levant” have been dropped from the organization’s name to reflect its new status.
The trouble with the announcement is that the Islamic State does not have a caliphate and probably never will. No amount of new monikers will change the fact that geography, political ideology and religious, cultural and ethnic differences will prevent the emergence of a singular polity capable of ruling the greater Middle East. Transnational jihadist groups can exploit weakened autocratic states, but they cannot institutionalize their power enough to govern such a large expanse of land. If anything, the Islamic State’s drive to unify the Middle East will actually create more conflicts than it will end as competing emirates vie for power in the new political environment.