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Archive for category Threat Watch
Why U.S. Bounties on Terrorists Often Fail
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 13/Apr/2012 16:16
Republished from STRATFOR:
By Scott Stewart
U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman announced April 3 that the U.S. government’s “Rewards for Justice” (RFJ) program was offering a $10 million reward for information leading to the capture and conviction of Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, the founder of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). In other Rewards for Justice cases involving Pakistan, suspects such as Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Abdel Basit and Mir Amal Kansi have hidden in Pakistan and maintained relatively low profiles. In this case, Saeed is a very public figure in Pakistan. He even held a news conference April 4 in Rawalpindi announcing his location and taunting the United States by saying he was willing to share his schedule with U.S. officials.
While the Saeed case is clearly a political matter rather than a pure law enforcement or intelligence issue, the case has focused a great deal of attention on Rewards for Justice, and it seems an opportune time to examine the history and mechanics of the program. Read the rest of this entry »
Tactical Realities of the Toulouse Shootings
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 8/Apr/2012 12:22
From STRATFOR:
By Scott Stewart
Mohammed Merah, the suspect in a string of violent attacks culminating with the March 19 shooting deaths of three children and a rabbi at the Ozar Hatorah School in Toulouse, France, committed suicide by cop March 22 after a prolonged standoff at his Toulouse apartment. Authorities believed Merah also to have shot and killed a paratrooper March 11 in Toulouse and two other paratroopers March 15 in Montauban.
While Merah’s death ended his attacks, it also began the inevitable inquiry process as French officials consider how the attacks could have been prevented. The commissions or committees appointed to investigate such attacks normally take months to complete their inquiries, so the findings of the panel looking into the Merah case will not be released in time to have any impact on the French presidential election set to begin April 22. However, such findings are routinely used for political purposes and as ammunition for bureaucratic infighting. Read the rest of this entry »
Persian Incursion War Game
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 6/Apr/2012 13:04
Defense Media Network reports on a war game that involves an Israeli attack on Iran.
In the summer of 2010, Clash of Arms published a wargame that I, along with Chris Carlson and Jeff Dougherty, had designed. A political-military simulation, Persian Incursion explored the consequences of an Israeli military campaign to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons development program.
$10 Million Bounty for Hafiz Mohammad Saeed
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 5/Apr/2012 12:09
It is believed that Hafiz Mohammad Saeed planned the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the US is now offering a bounty for any “information leading to the arrest and conviction†of Saeed.
From MilitaryTimes.com:
U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the decision to place a bounty on Saeed was driven by his alleged role in the November 2008 attacks in India’s financial capital Mumbai and recent high-profile public appearances.
“It has everything to do with Mumbai and his brazen flouting of the justice system,†Nuland said in Washington.
Al-Qaeda gunman – Toulouse – Live
Posted by Gary in News, Threat Watch on 21/Mar/2012 09:32
Live coverage of the siege at the home of the suspected Toulouse serial killer responsible for the murders of four people outside a Jewish school and three paratroopers in south west France.
Afghanistan and the Long War
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch, Warriors on 19/Mar/2012 22:12
From STRATFOR:
By George Friedman
The war in Afghanistan has been under way for more than 10 years. It has not been the only war fought during this time; for seven of those years another, larger war was waged in Iraq, and smaller conflicts were under way in a number of other countries as well. But the Afghanistan War is still the longest large-scale, multi-divisional war fought in American history. An American soldier’s killing of 16 Afghan civilians, including nine children, on March 11 represents only a moment in this long war, but it is an important moment.
In the course of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, military strategists in the United States developed the concept of the long war. The theory was presented in many ways, but its core argument was this: The defeat of Taliban forces and the Iraqi resistance would take a long time, but success would not end the war because Islamist terrorism and its supporters would be a constantly shifting threat, both in the places and in the ways they would operate. Therefore, since it was essential to defeat terrorism, the United States was now engaging in a long war whose end was distant and course unknown. Read the rest of this entry »
Four Killed in Drug Violence in Western Mexico
Posted by Gary in News, Threat Watch on 18/Mar/2012 09:46
From: Borderland Beat
Suspected drug cartel enforcers killed four men and hung two of the victims’ bodies from a bridge in the western Mexican state of Michoacan, prosecutors said.
The state Attorney General’s Office said all four of the victims, none of whom were identified, bore signs of torture.
Two of the bodies were hung Friday afternoon from a bridge that spans a highway near the town of Vista Hermosa, not far from Michoacan’s border with Jalisco state.
Another victim whose throat had been slit was found dumped under the same bridge, while the fourth body was discovered floating in a river near the highway, prompting authorities to suspect a connection between the four homicides.
A Practical Guide to Situational Awareness
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 16/Mar/2012 12:04
From STRATFOR:
By Scott Stewart
For the past three weeks we have been running a series in the Security Weekly that focuses on some of the fundamentals of terrorism. First, we noted that terrorism is a tactic not exclusive to any one group and that the tactic would not end even if the jihadist threat were to disappear. We then discussed how actors planning terrorist attacks have to follow a planning process and noted that there are times during that process when such plots are vulnerable to detection.
Last week we discussed how one of the most important vulnerabilities during the terrorism planning process is surveillance, and we outlined what bad surveillance looks like and described some basic tools to help identify those conducting it. At the end of last week’s Security Weekly we also discussed how living in a state of paranoia and looking for a terrorist behind every bush not only is dangerous to one’s physical and mental health but also results in poor security. This brings us to this week, where we want to discuss the fundamentals of situational awareness and explain how people can practice the technique in a relaxed and sustainable way.
Situational awareness is very important, not just for personal security but as a fundamental building block in collective security. Because of this importance, Stratfor has written about situational awareness many times in the past. However, we believe it merits repeating again in order to share these concepts with our new readers as well as serve as a reminder for our longtime readers. Read the rest of this entry »
FBI Warns of Homegrown Violence After Afghan Massacre
Posted by Gary in News, Threat Watch on 15/Mar/2012 12:18
From ABC via Yahoo
Federal authorities have issued a warning there could be “acts of violence” in the homeland sparked by the recent massacre of 16 civilians in Afghanistan allegedly by an American soldier.
“The FBI and DHS [Department of Homeland Security] are concerned that this event could contribute to the radicalization or mobilization of homegrown violent extremists [HVEs] in the homeland, particularly against U.S.-based military targets which HVEs have historically considered legitimate targets for retaliation in response to past alleged U.S. military actions against civilians overseas,” the FBI and DHS said in a joint “awareness bulletin” to law enforcement agencies Wednesday. More from Yahoo
Except from: Hearing before the House Committee on Homeland Security
â€Understanding the Homeland Threat Landscape – Considerations for the 112th Congressâ€
February 9, 2011
Homegrown Extremist Activity Remains Elevated
In addition to threats emanating from outside the country, we also remain concerned that homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) continue to pose an elevated threat to the Homeland. Plots disrupted in Washington, D.C., Oregon, Alaska, and Maryland during the past year were unrelated operationally, but indicate that the ideology espoused by al-Qa’ida and its adherents is motivating, or being used as a justification by, individuals to attack the Homeland. Key to this trend has been the development of a US-specific narrative, particularly in terrorist media
available on the Internet that motivates individuals to violence. This narrative—a blend of al-Qa‘ida inspiration, perceived victimization, and glorification of past Homegrown plotting—addresses the unique concerns of like-minded, US-based individuals. HVEs continue to act independently and have yet to demonstrate the capability to conduct sophisticated attacks, but as Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan demonstrated, attacks need not be sophisticated to be deadly.
- Similar to 2009, arrests of HVEs in the United States in 2010 remained at elevated levels, with four plots disrupted in the Homeland. The individuals involved were motivated to carry out violence on the basis of a variety of personal rationales, underscoring the continued intent by some HVEs to take part in violence despite having no operational connections to terrorists overseas.
- Increasingly sophisticated English-language propaganda that provides extremists with guidance to carry out Homeland attacks remains easily accessible via the Internet. English-language web forums also foster a sense of community and further indoctrinate new recruits, both of which can lead to increased levels of violent activity.
- The prominent profiles of US citizens within overseas terrorist groups—such as Omar Hammami in al-Shabaab and Anwar al-Aulaqi in AQAP—may also provide young U.S.-based individuals with American role models in groups that in the past may have appeared foreign and inaccessible. These individuals have also provided encouragement for homegrown extremists to travel overseas and join terrorist organizations.
The Global State of Piracy
Posted by Gary in Threat Watch on 15/Mar/2012 11:53
IDGA Podcast
CAPT Robert B. Ford, Sr. Data Analyst, Maritime Administration, Department of Homeland Security (DHS), talks to IDGA about developing sustainable solutions to combat global piracy; achieving the proper balance between safety and security; and current anti-piracy tactics, techniques, and procedures.
Detecting Terrorist Surveillance
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 12/Mar/2012 10:00
This is a report from STRATFOR:
By Scott Stewart
As we noted last week, terrorist attacks do not materialize out of thin air. In fact, quite the opposite is true. Those planning terrorist attacks follow a discernable process referred to as the terrorist attack cycle. We also discussed last week how terrorism planners are vulnerable to detection at specific points during their attack cycle and how their poor surveillance tradecraft is one of these vulnerable junctures.
While surveillance is a necessary part of the planning process, the fact that it is a requirement does not necessarily mean that terrorist planners are very good at it. With this in mind, let’s take a closer look at surveillance and discuss what bad surveillance looks like. Read the rest of this entry »
Things to Think About Before Israel Attacks Iran
Posted by Gary in Threat Watch on 8/Mar/2012 14:45
From: Defense Media Network
For several years, Israel has publicly and explicitly stated that if Iran attempts to develop a nuclear weapon, Israel will attack to prevent the program from succeeding or to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability…
Smartphones Leak Encryption
Posted by Brian in Gear, News, Threat Watch on 7/Mar/2012 19:26
Technology Review reports that an attacker my be able to pick up encryption keys from cellphones with a TV antenna:
The antenna was detecting radio signals “leaking” from the transistors on the chip inside the phone performing the encryption calculations. Transistors leak those signals when they are active, so the pattern of signals from a chip provides an eavesdropper a representation of the work the chip is doing. When Kenworthy tuned his equipment to look in the right place, a clear, regular pattern of peaks and troughs appeared on his computer screen. They could be seen to come in two varieties, large and small, directly corresponding to the string of digital 1s and 0s that make up the encryption key.
Texas DPS Acquires Red River Gun Boats
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 2/Mar/2012 15:14
From Wired’s Danger Room:
The boats have drawn comparison to Vietnam-era Patrol Fast Craft boats, or Swift Boats. But they’re a bit smaller, with a length of 34 feet in comparison to the Swift Boat’s 50. Swift Boats were also armed with high-explosive mortars, which will not be on board the gunboats. Still, they’re pretty menacing. The gunboats will reportedly carry an arsenal of six mounted machine guns apiece.
American Servicemen Murdered Over Book Burning
Posted by Gary in News, Opinion, Threat Watch on 27/Feb/2012 10:11
From: Danger Room
Protests — some better called riots — have spread into their sixth day. Most shockingly, an Interior Ministry employee killed two U.S. servicemembers working in the ministry’s Kabul headquarters, reportedly by shooting them in the head on Saturday with a silencer-equipped pistol. Pentagon press secretary George Little called the killings “murder.â€
More proof that Islam really is no different than any other religion. Muslims are just like Baptists, Buddhists and Lutherans, who will also slit throats and shoot you in the head if someone from your country burns their holy book.