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Archive for category Threat Watch
A Primer on Situational Awareness
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch, Training on 10/Jun/2010 14:54
This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR
By Scott Stewart
The world is a wonderful place, but it can also be a dangerous one. In almost every corner of the globe militants of some political persuasion are plotting terror attacks — and these attacks can happen in London or New York, not just in Peshawar or Baghdad. Meanwhile, criminals operate wherever there are people, seeking to steal, rape, kidnap or kill.
Regardless of the threat, it is very important to recognize that criminal and terrorist attacks do not materialize out of thin air. In fact, quite the opposite is true. Criminals and terrorists follow a process when planning their actions, and this process has several distinct steps. This process has traditionally been referred to as the “terrorist attack cycle,†but if one looks at the issue thoughtfully, it becomes apparent that the same steps apply to nearly all crimes. Of course, there will be more time between steps in a complex crime like a kidnapping or car bombing than there will be between steps in a simple crime such as purse-snatching or shoplifting, where the steps can be completed quite rapidly. Nevertheless, the same steps are usually followed.
People who practice situational awareness can often spot this planning process as it unfolds and then take appropriate steps to avoid the dangerous situation or prevent it from happening altogether. Because of this, situational awareness is one of the key building blocks of effective personal security — and when exercised by large numbers of people, it can also be an important facet of national security. Since situational awareness is so important, and because we discuss situational awareness so frequently in our analyses, we thought it would be helpful to discuss the subject in detail and provide a primer that can be used by people in all sorts of situations. Read the rest of this entry »
Thin blue line
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Law, Opinion, Threat Watch on 9/Jun/2010 16:48
San Francisco cop: “There is pure evil out there. I see that evil a lot.”
South Korea, Israel Under the Gun
Posted by Gary in News, Threat Watch on 7/Jun/2010 15:18
A history lesson and some perspective from Col. North
After the Cheonan, an ROK navy patrol boat, blew up in international waters, killing 46 sailors March 26, Seoul’s military — as our mutual defense treaty requires — turned to the U.S. for advice on how to respond. The O-Team counseled caution — urging the South Koreans to invite an “international committee” to conduct a “fair, impartial and transparent investigation” to determine what happened.
Sinseong, a sister ship of Cheonan
They did — and the panel found overwhelming evidence that the Cheonan had been sunk by a torpedo fired from a North Korean submarine. The Obama administration’s response to this overt act of war: to refer the matter to the United Nations. In Pyongyang, the brutal regime that has starved its people to build nuclear weapons now promises “total war.”
It’s even worse for Israel — abandoned by the Obama administration and beleaguered by the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapon’s detonating on Tel Aviv, renewed rocket attacks on civilians from Iranian-supplied Hamas terrorists in Gaza, and a rearmed, Iranian-supplied Hezbollah terror movement in southern Lebanon. Last week’s flawed effort by Israel Defense Forces to inspect a so-called “humanitarian aid flotilla” for weapons and military equipment has resulted in international opprobrium because nine “activists” aboard the vessels were killed. The O-Team’s response: to demand that the United Nations conduct a “fair, impartial and transparent investigation.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has to be thankful no one insisted on a U.N. investigation after more than 70 were killed in Waco, Texas, in April 1993.
Two New Jersey men Arrested at Kennedy Airport on Terror Charges
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 6/Jun/2010 20:07
Outside the home of Mohamed Hamoud Alessa, in North Bergen, N.J. | Robert Stolarik for The New York Times
The home of Carlos Eduardo Almonte | Joe Epstein/Associated Press
“Two New Jersey men who were bound for Somalia with the stated intention of joining an Islamic extremist group to kill American troops were arrested at Kennedy International Airport late Saturday.”
Mohamed Mahmood Alessa, 20: United States citizen, born in the United States to Palestinian and Jordanian parents.
Carlos Eduardo Almonte, 24: naturalized United States citizen, born in the Dominican Republic.
[Mohamed Mahmood Alessa to undercover officer]: “They only fear you when you have a gun and when you — when you start killing them, and when you — when you take their head, and you go like this, and you behead it on camera.†He added: “We’ll start doing killing here, if I can’t do it over there.â€
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/07/nyregion/07terror.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
Anthony J. Tracy: helped 270 Somalis illegally enter the United States through Cuba.
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Threat Watch on 5/Jun/2010 23:36
“This much is known about Anthony J. Tracy: He told government agents that he helped 270 Somalis illegally enter the United States through Cuba. He failed a lie detector test when he denied helping members of the Somali terrorist group Al Shabaab. He was some sort of informant for the federal government going back at least as far as 2002.
Mr. Tracy, 35, told government agents that members of Al Shabaab, a group that is seeking to impose strict Islamic law in Somalia and has claimed responsibility for suicide bombing attacks, were among those who contacted him for help securing fake travel documents. Mr. Tracy denied helping them but failed that portion of a polygraph test.
The unredacted portions of the transcript indicate that Mr. Tracy, while living in Kenya, served as an informant for ICE and at least one other government agency as far back as 2002. In an e-mail message sent this year to an associate, he wrote, “I helped a lot of Somalis and most are good, but there are some who are bad and I leave them to Allah.â€
… on Friday, Mr. Tracy, of Winchester, Va., was sentenced to roughly four months in jail, equal to time served, and walked out a free man.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/us/06smuggle.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
Al Shabaab Threats Against the United States?
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 4/Jun/2010 13:48
This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR
By Scott Stewart
On the afternoon of Sunday, May 30, an Aeromexico flight from Paris to Mexico City was forced to land in Montreal after authorities discovered that a man who was on the U.S. no-fly list was aboard. The aircraft was denied permission to enter U.S. airspace, and the aircraft was diverted to Trudeau International Airport in Montreal. The man, a Somali named Abdirahman Ali Gaall, was removed from the plane and arrested by Canadian authorities on an outstanding U.S. warrant. After a search of all the remaining passengers and their baggage, the flight was allowed to continue to its original destination.
Gaall reportedly has U.S. resident-alien status and is apparently married to an American or Canadian woman. Media reports also suggest that he is connected with the Somali jihadist group al Shabaab. Gaall was reportedly deported from Canada to the United States on June 1, and we are unsure of the precise charges brought against him by the U.S. government, but more information should be forthcoming once he has his detention hearing. From the facts at hand, however, it appears likely that he has been charged for his connection with al Shabaab, perhaps with a crime such as material support to a designated terrorist organization.
Last week, the Department of Homeland Security issued a lookout to authorities in Texas, warning that another Somali purportedly linked to al Shabaab was believed to be in Mexico and was allegedly planning to attempt to cross the border into the United States. This lookout appears to be linked to a U.S. indictment in March charging another Somali man with running a large-scale smuggling ring bringing Somalis into the United States through Latin America.
Taken together, these incidents highlight the increased attention the U.S. government has given to al Shabaab and the concern that the Somali militant group could be planning to conduct attacks in the United States. Although many details pertaining to the Gaall case remain unknown at this time, these incidents involving Somalis, Mexico and possible militant connections — and the obvious U.S. concern — provide an opportunity to discuss the dynamics of Somali immigration as it relates to the U.S. border with Mexico, as well as the possibility that al Shabaab has decided to target the United States. Read the rest of this entry »
Geert Wilder’s warning to America
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Threat Watch on 3/Jun/2010 19:27
Yes, Geert Wilders has stirred up controversy, yes he has been accused of “hate speech” and provoking trouble – but have you actually heard what he has to say? Listen to his speech, make your own judgment.
Agree or disagree, but decide for yourself.
As of today, this video of one of his speeches has 347,371 views:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQOCcx5V9RI&playnext_from=TL&videos=ScRJvXRVgQE&feature=grec_index
Rape Trees on the Southern Border?
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 29/May/2010 00:31
From Latina.com
The violence in Mexico is out of control and undeniably headed north. From beheadings to kidnappings, there seems to be no limit to what the cartels are willing to do to assert their dominance. They deal not only in drugs, but also in humans. The majority of the coyotes who help illegal immigrants cross the border are affiliated with these Mexican cartels.
Although many politicians would like to believe that the violence will stay to the south of the border, the reality is that it has already begun to affect South Western states. The revelation that Phoenix is now the “kidnapping capital” of the United States only affirms what many residents already knew.
A new method of marking territory has crossed over into the United States. “Rape trees” are popping up in Southern Arizona and their significance is horrific and disgusting. These “rape trees” are places where cartel members and coyotes rape female border crossers and hang their clothes, specifically undergarments, to mark their conquest and territory.
Sen. Jonathan Paton (R-Tucson), recently invited officials to describe the problems being faced in his home state to the Senate Judiciary Committee, which he chairs. Paton said violence along the border has escalated dramatically in the past year, “We want to go after these crimes,” he insisted, “It’s an unbelievable situation, and we can’t allow that to go on in this country.”
Video
From Failed Bombings to Armed Jihadist Assaults
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 28/May/2010 15:37
This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR
By Scott Stewart
One of the things we like to do in our Global Security and Intelligence Report from time to time is examine the convergence of a number of separate and unrelated developments and then analyze that convergence and craft a forecast. In recent months we have seen such a convergence occur.
The most recent development is the interview with the American-born Yemeni cleric Anwar al-Awlaki that was released to jihadist Internet chat rooms May 23 by al-Malahim Media, the public relations arm of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). In the interview, al-Awlaki encouraged strikes against American civilians. He also has been tied to Maj. Nidal Hasan, who was charged in the November 2009 Fort Hood shooting, and Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the perpetrator of the failed Christmas Day 2009 airline bombing. And al-Awlaki reportedly helped inspire Faisal Shahzad, who was arrested in connection with the attempted Times Square attack in May.
The second link in our chain is the failed Christmas Day and Times Square bombings themselves. They are the latest in a long string of failed or foiled bombing attacks directed against the United States that date back to before the 9/11 attacks and include the thwarted 1997 suicide bomb plot against a subway in New York, the thwarted December 1999 Millennium Bomb plot and numerous post-9/11 attacks such as Richard Reid’s December 2001 shoe-bomb attempt, the August 2004 plot to bomb the New York subway system and the May 2009 plot to bomb two Jewish targets in the Bronx and shoot down a military aircraft. Indeed, jihadists have not conducted a successful bombing attack inside the United States since the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. Getting a trained bombmaker into the United States has proved to be increasingly difficult for jihadist groups, and training a novice to make bombs has also been problematic as seen in the Shahzad and Najibullah Zazi cases.
The final link we’d like to consider are the calls in the past few months for jihadists to conduct simple attacks with readily available items. This call was first made by AQAP leader Nasir al-Wahayshi in October 2009 and then echoed by al Qaeda prime spokesman Adam Gadahn in March of 2010. In the Times Square case, Shahzad did use readily available items, but he lacked the ability to effectively fashion them into a viable explosive device.
When we look at all these links together, there is a very high probability that jihadists linked to, or inspired by, AQAP and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — and perhaps even al Shabaab — will attempt to conduct simple attacks with firearms in the near future. Read the rest of this entry »
Afghanistan – Royal Marines Storm IED Factory
Posted by Gary in News, Threat Watch on 26/May/2010 14:19
From: Royal Marines Online
Royal Marines smash bomb factory and seize explosives
A bomb-making factory at the heart of one of the most dangerous parts of Afghanistan has been smashed in a high-profile operation by West-based Royal Marines.
In their biggest find to date, members of 40 Commando stormed an insurgent compound in the Sangin district of Helmand province.
They seized 40kg of homemade explosive, along with numerous weapons, pressure plates and components for making improvised explosive devices (IEDs).
The Taunton-based group’s operation manager, Major Duncan Forbes said they had severely hampered insurgents in their efforts to undermine security in the area.
He said a stark message had been sent to enemy forces that there are no longer any “no-go” areas in the difficult Sangin District.
“We will ruthlessly target those who seek to destabilise the region,” said Maj Forbes.
The isolated IED factory was targeted after Royal Marines were involved in a series of fire fights with people based in compounds on high ground near a frontline Forward Operating Base and Patrol Base.
As a result of their suspicions being raised, the Royal Marines and their Afghan partners watched the area closely in advance.
The Commandos then leapt into action during a covert overnight insertion of troops from two separate locations, which involved a mobile Quick Reaction Force Patrol primed to support the operation.
At first light, the patrol made their final approach towards the compound where weapons were visible through the open archways.
Using their well-rehearsed Counter-IED drills, Royal Marines isolated the compound and, on discovering the explosives cache which could have been turned into lethal landmines and rockets, called in their experts.
The operation was a complete success with no casualties and no collateral damage, said Maj Forbes. The bomb disposal team destroyed the explosives and recovered the remaining items for further examination.
“It was like finding a mini factory of IEDs,” he said.
“All the components and materials required to construct them were stored inside the compound.”
Sangin is an area of Afghanistan’s Helmand province which has long been regarded as a powder keg.
The Taunton-based commandos took over the watch last month, the second time they have deployed to Sangin.
A marine from 40 Commando was killed in an explosion in Helmand Province yesterday.
His next of kin have been informed and he will be named later today.
Article from http://www.thisissomerset.co.uk
Who’s crossing our southern border? OTM
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Threat Watch on 24/May/2010 19:49
“Other Than Mexican” Islamic extremists entering the US illegally.
From WSBTV.com Atlanta: “We have hundreds and hundreds of folks coming from Middle Eastern countries – and frankly, I don’t think these people are coming here to cut our grass.”
Mexican narco-pirates ambush boaters on Texas lake
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 22/May/2010 22:07
Armed with machine guns, members of the Zeta drug cartel from Mexico are attacking boats and robbing sailors of their loot—and gadgets—on a lake that straddles the Texas/Mexico border.
A Look at Kidnapping through the Lens of Protective Intelligence
Posted by Brian in Threat Watch on 21/May/2010 13:27
This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR
By Scott Stewart
Looking at the world from a protective-intelligence perspective, the theme for the past week has not been improvised explosive devices or potential mass-casualty attacks. While there have been suicide bombings in Afghanistan, alleged threats to the World Cup and seemingly endless post-mortem discussions of the failed May 1 Times Square attack, one recurring and under-reported theme in a number of regions around the world has been kidnapping.
For example, in Heidenheim, Germany, Maria Boegerl, the wife of German banker Thomas Boegerl, was reportedly kidnapped from her home May 12. The kidnappers issued a ransom demand to the family and an amount was agreed upon. Mr. Boegerl placed the ransom payment at the arranged location, but the kidnappers never picked up the money (perhaps suspecting or detecting police involvement). The family has lost contact with the kidnappers, and fear for Mrs. Boegerl’s fate has caused German authorities to launch a massive search operation, which has included hundreds of searchers along with dogs, helicopters and divers. Read the rest of this entry »
Winning in Afghanistan with CPT Carl Thompson
Posted by Gary in News, Threat Watch on 18/May/2010 11:51
From: IDGA
Tip of the Spear Podcast
CPT Carl Thompson, who returned April 2010 from a combat tour in Afghanistan shares his insight into the ground war in OEF.  This tour was his second in country and he has received a Bronze Star, Army Commendation Medal with V, and a Purple Heart for his service. He discusses working closely with the ANA and talks about how corruption issues are hindering American efforts and missions.  He also elaborates on the rugged terrain and how controlling the high ground and the villages are the centers of gravity for winning the war.
Did The Daily Show Ask Aasif Mandvi to Stop Talking About Muslim Extremism?
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 16/May/2010 02:58
“Aasif Mandvi is a funny guy. He is also The Daily Show‘s “Senior Islamic Correspondent.” So why would the show ask him not to talk about Muslim extremist threats after the Times Square bombing attempt?
Fox411—”Your First Call for Celebrity News, If Stephen Baldwin Counts as a Celebrity”—has a scoop! And their scoop is: Islam is ruining TV! No one is allowed to say the bad things about the Moslems anymore, due to “the supercharged climate.”
http://gawker.com/5536690/did-the-daily-show-ask-aasif-mandvi-to-stop-talking-about-muslim-extremism