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Egypt and the Idealist-Realist Debate in U.S. Foreign Policy
Egypt and the Idealist-Realist Debate in U.S. Foreign Policy is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By George Friedman
The first round of Egyptian parliamentary elections has taken place, and the winners were two Islamist parties. The Islamists themselves are split between more extreme and more moderate factions, but it is clear that the secularists who dominated the demonstrations and who were the focus of the Arab Spring narrative made a poor showing. Of the three broad power blocs in Egypt — the military, the Islamists and the secular democrats — the last proved the weakest.
It is far from clear what will happen in Egypt now. The military remains unified and powerful, and it is unclear how much actual power it is prepared to cede or whether it will be forced to cede it. What is clear is that the faction championed by Western governments and the media will now have to accept the Islamist agenda, back the military or fade into irrelevance.
One of the points I made during the height of the Arab Spring was that the West should be careful of what it wishes for — it might get it. Democracy does not always bring secular democrats to power. To be more precise, democracy might yield a popular government, but the assumption that that government will support a liberal democratic constitution that conceives of human rights in the European or American sense is by no means certain. Unrest does not always lead to a revolution, a revolution does not always lead to a democracy, and a democracy does not always lead to a European- or American-style constitution. Read the rest of this entry »
Ahmed Shah Massoud
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Warriors on 5/Dec/2011 19:43
“We consider this our duty – to defend humanity against the scourge of intolerance, violence, and fanaticism.â€
– Ahmed Shah Massoud
Ahmed Shah Massoud was a Kabul University engineering student turned military leader who played a leading role in driving the Soviet army out of Afghanistan, earning him the name “Lion of Panjshir”.
A Sunni Muslim who reportedly always carried a book of Sufi mystic Ghazali with him, he strongly rejected the interpretations of Islam followed by the Taliban, Al Qaeda or the Saudi establishment.
Following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan the Wall Street Journal named Massoud “the Afghan who won the Cold War”.
After the collapse of the communist Soviet-backed government of Mohammad Najibullah in 1992, Massoud became the Minister of Defense under the government of Burhanuddin Rabbani. Following the rise of the Taliban in 1996, Massoud returned to the role of an armed opposition leader, serving as the military commander and political leader of the United Islamic Front (also known in the West as Northern Alliance).
On September 9, 2001, two days before the September 11 attacks in the United States, Massoud was assassinated in Takhar Province of Afghanistan by two suspected Arab al-Qaeda suicide bombers posing as journalists.
The following year, he was named “National Hero” by the order of Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
A Deadly U.S. Attack on Pakistani Soil
A Deadly U.S. Attack on Pakistani Soil is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Nate Hughes
In the early hours of Nov. 26 on the Afghan-Pakistani border, what was almost certainly a flight of U.S. Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopters and an AC-130 gunship killed some two dozen Pakistani servicemen at two border outposts inside Pakistan. Details remain scarce, conflicting and disputed, but the incident was known to have taken place near the border of the Afghan provinces of Kunar and Nangarhar and the Mohmand agency of Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The death toll inflicted by the United States against Pakistani servicemen is unprecedented, and while U.S. commanders and NATO leaders have expressed regret over the incident, the reaction from Pakistan has been severe.
Claims and Interests
The initial Pakistani narrative of the incident describes an unprovoked and aggressive attack on well-established outposts more than a mile inside Pakistani territory — outposts known to the Americans and ones that representatives of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) had visited in the past. The attack supposedly lasted for some two hours despite distressed communications from the outpost to the Pakistani military’s general headquarters in Rawalpindi. Read the rest of this entry »
Most of the U.S. Troops Killed in Afghanistan were killed on Pakistan Border
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 4/Dec/2011 13:49
“Pakistan objected furiously when a NATO airstrike along its border with Afghanistan killed 24 Pakistani soldiers on Nov. 26, while NATO claimed the attack came after a U.S.-Afghan patrol came under fire.
Now a report discloses that the overwhelmingly majority of U.S. combat deaths in Afghanistan have in fact come along that border.
The CNS News report shows that a total of 1,527 American troops have died while engaged in combat in Afghanistan, and 1,089 of them — 71 percent — died in the 10 Afghan provinces that border Pakistan.
That compares to 438 combat deaths in all of Afghanistan’s other 24 provinces.
Including non-combat deaths, 1,168 Americans have died in Afghanistan’s border provinces as of Nov. 30, according to CNS News.
Since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009, at least 1,172 U.S. soldiers have died in Afghanistan, accounting for 67 percent of the total casualties in the 10-year-long war.”
Aimpoint vs. EOTECH vs ACOG
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Opinion, Optics, Sights, Warrior Tools on 3/Dec/2011 18:53
yuy96 discusses the pros and cons of the most common combat optics in use by the military.
al-Qaida’s 5-year-old branch in Africa is flourishing
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 3/Dec/2011 18:24
“While al-Qaida’s central command is in disarray and its leaders on the run following bin Laden’s death six months ago, security experts say, the group’s 5-year-old branch in Africa is flourishing. From bases like the one in the forest just north of here, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, or AQIM, is infiltrating local communities, recruiting fighters, running training camps and planning suicide attacks, according to diplomats and government officials.
Even as the mother franchise struggles financially, its African offshoot has raised an estimated $130 million in under a decade by kidnapping at least 50 Westerners in neighboring countries and holding them in camps in Mali for ransom. It has tripled in size from 100 combatants in 2006 to at least 300 today, say security experts. And its growing footprint, once limited to Algeria, now stretches from one end of the Sahara desert to the other, from Mauritania in the west to Mali in the east.
The group’s stated aim is to become a player in global jihad, and suspected collaborators have been arrested throughout Europe, including in the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, England and France.
With almost no resistance, al-Qaida has implanted itself in Africa’s soft tissue, choosing as its host one of the poorest nations on earth. The terrorist group has create a refuge in this remote land through a strategy of winning hearts and minds, described in rare detail by seven locals in regular contact with the cell. The villagers agreed to speak for the first time to an Associated Press team in the “red zone,” deemed by most embassies to be too dangerous for foreigners to visit.”
http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2011/12/03/9187451-candy-cash-al-qaida-implants-itself-in-africa
Evil exists in the world – Nutnfancy’s perspective on being prepared to face it.
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Opinion on 2/Dec/2011 17:22
Nutnfancy discusses his philosophy on the reality of evil:
“Does evil really exist? Millions of pacifists and protectionists say it does NOT and even if it did, the police will protect you.
They consider YOU the evil ones, armed and paranoid people who stare at the world with steely eyes and furor, hoping for disaster. At least so goes their media and spins about the prepared individual (who have increased exponentially, some because of TNP). Much energy is spent by these individuals in attempt to control public opinion and sway views on the Sheepdogs of society.
This video is mostly intended for that audience.
In the vid I address the Realities of Evil (this vid’s original name) as I feel it can manifest itself in ROL, WROL, and even Government Tyranny situations.
MUT EOD Multi-tool – Leatherman
Posted by Gary in Maintenance, Warrior Tools on 1/Dec/2011 10:56
From: Leatherman
Smartphones as Pocket Spies against Mexican Drug Cartels?
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Comms, News on 30/Nov/2011 23:56
“Michael Yon travels with U.S. combat troops overseas and has learned much about smartphones as pocket spies with actionable intelligence that is trackable and could mean life or death. While continuing to discuss smartphones as pocket spies with actionable intelligence that can be tracked, Yon pointed out that:
Smartphones are computers. Software is hacked every day. The speaker and camera can be turned on without a warning. This also is possible with normal landlines. The phone speaker can remotely activated without the phone ringing.
Chinese hackers were said to be turning on webcams and secretly transmitting. Information flows into and out of smartphones like water flows in rainforests. Information practically evaporates. Spyware can be installed. Wifi and Bluetooth are open doors.”
Woman shoots and kills home intruder with .22 pistol
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch, Warriors on 30/Nov/2011 22:14
The woman in this video used a .22 pistol to defend herself from a would-be rapist that broke into her home – and she killed him with it. This story illustrates that even a .22 can be lethal.
A related point is that training is crucial, because a .22 round in a vital organ will put a bad guy down faster than a .45 that misses or only wounds him. Doesn’t matter how big the bullet is if it misses the target.
Pakistan, Russia and the Threat to the Afghan War
Pakistan, Russia and the Threat to the Afghan War is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By George Friedman
Days after the Pakistanis closed their borders to the passage of fuel and supplies for the NATO-led war effort in Afghanistan, for very different reasons the Russians threatened to close the alternative Russia-controlled Northern Distribution Network (NDN). The dual threats are significant even if they don’t materialize. If both routes are cut, supplying Western forces operating in Afghanistan becomes impossible. Simply raising the possibility of cutting supply lines forces NATO and the United States to recalculate their position in Afghanistan.
The possibility of insufficient lines of supply puts NATO’s current course in Afghanistan in even more jeopardy. It also could make Western troops more vulnerable by possibly requiring significant alterations to operations in a supply-constrained scenario. While the supply lines in Pakistan most likely will reopen eventually and the NDN likely will remain open, the gap between likely and certain is vast.
The Pakistani Outpost Attack
The Pakistani decision to close the border crossings at Torkham near the Khyber Pass and Chaman followed a U.S. attack on a Pakistani position inside Pakistan’s tribal areas near the Afghan border that killed some two-dozen Pakistani soldiers. The Pakistanis have been increasingly opposed to U.S. operations inside Pakistani territory. This most recent incident took an unprecedented toll, and triggered an extreme response. The precise circumstances of the attack are unclear, with details few, contradictory and disputed. The Pakistanis have insisted it was an unprovoked attack and a violation of their sovereign territory. In response, Islamabad closed the border to NATO; ordered the United States out of Shamsi air base in Balochistan, used by the CIA; and is reviewing military and intelligence cooperation with the United States and NATO. Read the rest of this entry »
Houston: Unarmed man shot by carjackers in front of his home.
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 30/Nov/2011 03:40
“Police are searching for two gunmen after an attempted carjacking in northwest Harris County.
A family of three were returning to their home on Roydencrest Dr. and Dawn Lily Dr. around 11:15 p.m. Saturday after purchasing two new cars.
The wife and child went into the house. The husband was still outside when two gunmen appeared demanding both cars.
Police say the men then shot the husband after he refused to hand over the keys. Both gunmen then ran off on foot.
The husband was then taken to Memorial Hermann Hospital in serious but stable condition.”
Marine Medal of Honor Recipient Sues Defense Giant BAE After Sniper Scope Fight
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch, Warriors on 29/Nov/2011 20:30
“Marine Sgt. Dakota Meyer is perhaps this country’s best-recognized war hero, a man who risked his life over and over again to save his buddies from a Taliban ambush. That’s why he’s the only living Marine to be awarded the Medal of Honor — the nation’s highest award for valor — for his actions in Afghanistan or Iraq.
It’s undoubtedly one reason why the defense giant BAE Systems hired Meyer after he left the Corps.
Then, BAE considered selling high-tech sniper rifle scopes to the Pakistani military. Meyer objected, given Islamabad’s um, unambiguous relationship with the terrorists and militants based in Pakistan. Then he quit. Suddenly, Meyer’s former bosses at BAE started calling the war hero “mentally unstable†and a drunk.
“We are taking the best gear, the best technology on the market to date and giving it to guys known to stab us in the back,†Meyer wrote to his supervisor…