Since June, a great deal of international focus has been on Iraq, where the transnational jihadist movement Islamic State took over large swaths of the country’s Sunni-majority areas and declared the re-establishment of the caliphate. Despite the global attention on the country, especially given U.S. military operations against the Islamic State, U.S.-Iranian cooperation against the jihadist group — a significant dynamic — has gone largely unnoticed. A convergence of interests, particularly concerning the Iraqi central and Kurdish regional governments, has made it necessary for Washington and Tehran to at least coordinate their actions. However, mistrust and domestic opposition will continue hampering this cooperation.
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Posts Tagged islamists
Deprive ISIS Of Its Finances
Posted by Brian in Threat Watch on 14/Oct/2014 07:15
From RAND Corporation:
The Islamic State has emerged as the world’s richest terrorist group, with estimated assets of $1 billion to $2 billion. Its sophisticated and strategically driven financial scheme is a key reason that U.S. officials say this fight could last years.
An examination of newly declassified financial documents the group created dating to 2005 reveals an organized criminal operation that is funded through rackets like protection, extortion and the co-opting of the region’s oil industry. This makes the group a self-sustaining operation, largely free of reliance on the largesse of wealthy foreign patrons. While airstrikes may disrupt the flow of oil and profits, they will not lead to the group’s financial ruin anytime soon. Based on our research, we estimate the Islamic State will bring in $100 million to $200 million this year. And that’s being conservative.
The ISIS Threat To The U.S.
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 10/Oct/2014 14:56
From RAND Coporation:
Terrorists can operate in many environments. Al Qaeda cells have existed in hostile states with efficient law enforcement capabilities, like the United States or Germany. Terrorist organizations have a much easier time operating in states with low capability, even when those states are hostile to them. Examples would be Yemen or Nigeria. Terrorists have an easier time operating in ungoverned space, where little or no state apparatus exists, such as Somalia. But an even better place for terrorists to locate their home base is in a state that is sympathetic to their purposes. And the best place of all would be a state the terrorists actually controlled. In that environment they would not only be free of state interference, they would actually be able to employ the attributes of sovereignty to their purposes—the police, the security services, the banking system, the diplomatic establishment. Imagine the difficulty of dealing with terrorists with diplomatic immunity.
Armed Citizens vs Islamists
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 2/Oct/2014 12:00
In this era where a single person is able to do large amounts of damage and harm, every individual is responsible for their own personal security.
From Investors Business Daily:
Vaughan Foods employee Traci Johnson is alive today because the business she works for is not a gun-free zone at a time when the Islamic State is encouraging attacks on infidels in the West like the one in Moore, Okla., where co-worker Colleen Hufford was stabbed and beheaded.
The alleged attacker, 30-year-old Alton Nolen, was stopped as he was stabbing and preparing to behead Johnson by Mark Vaughan, the food distributor’s chief operating officer. Vaughn, who is also a reserve county deputy, drew the gun he was carrying and stopped Nolen, police say, before he could claim more victims.
Americans Who Fought For Jihad
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 23/Sep/2014 07:13
From The New York Times:
They walked parallel paths to trouble, never graduating from high school and racking up arrests. They converted to Islam around the same time and exalted their new faith to family and friends, declaring that they had found truth and certainty. One after the other, both men abandoned their American lives for distant battlefields.
Today, both are dead. While their lives ended five years and over 2,000 miles apart, their intertwined journeys toward militancy offer a sharp example of how the allure of Islamist extremism has evolved, enticing similar pools of troubled, pliable young Americans to conflicts in different parts of the world. The tools of online propaganda and shadowy networks of facilitators that once beckoned Mr. Kastigar and Somali men to the Horn of Africa are now drawing hundreds of Europeans and about a dozen known Americans to fight with ISIS, according to American law enforcement and counterterrorism officials.
Two Austrian Girls Join ISIS
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 19/Sep/2014 12:49
From IJR:
The girls’ parents are reportedly from Iraq. The Austrian Interior Minister confirmed that two more teenage girls have departed Austria to take up the cause of jihad in the Middle East. The Daily Mail reports that 130 such jihadist sympathizers have departed Austria to fight in the “holy war.â€
The Virtue of Subtlety: A U.S. Strategy Against the Islamic State
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 18/Sep/2014 07:30
“The Virtue of Subtlety: A U.S. Strategy Against the Islamic State is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By George Friedman
U.S. President Barack Obama said recently that he had no strategy as yet toward the Islamic State but that he would present a plan on Wednesday. It is important for a president to know when he has no strategy. It is not necessarily wise to announce it, as friends will be frightened and enemies delighted. A president must know what it is he does not know, and he should remain calm in pursuit of it, but there is no obligation to be honest about it.
This is particularly true because, in a certain sense, Obama has a strategy, though it is not necessarily one he likes. Strategy is something that emerges from reality, while tactics might be chosen. Given the situation, the United States has an unavoidable strategy. There are options and uncertainties for employing it. Let us consider some of the things that Obama does know.
The Formation of National Strategy
There are serious crises on the northern and southern edges of the Black Sea Basin. There is no crisis in the Black Sea itself, but it is surrounded by crises. The United States has been concerned about the status of Russia ever since U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt negotiated the end of the Russo-Japanese war in 1905. The United States has been concerned about the Middle East since U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower forced the British to retreat from Suez in 1956. As a result, the United States inherited — or seized — the British position. Read the rest of this entry »
Brother Rachid on The President’s Speech
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 14/Sep/2014 15:39
Terrorism as Theater
“Terrorism as Theater is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By Robert D. Kaplan
The beheading of American journalist James Foley by the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq was much more than an altogether gruesome and tragic affair: rather, it was a very sophisticated and professional film production deliberately punctuated with powerful symbols. Foley was dressed in an orange jumpsuit reminiscent of the Muslim prisoners held by the United States at Guantanamo Bay. He made his confession forcefully, as if well rehearsed. His executioner, masked and clad in black, made an equally long statement in a calm, British accent, again, as if rehearsed. It was as if the killing was secondary to the message being sent. Read the rest of this entry »
In Iraq, the United States and Iran Align Against the Islamic State
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 26/Aug/2014 12:36
“In Iraq, the United States and Iran Align Against the Islamic State is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
ISIS Takes Control of Syrian Air Base
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 25/Aug/2014 14:46
From Breitbart.com:
President Bashar al-Assad’s state-run Syrian news agency admitted Sunday that the Tabqa air base had indeed been lost and that Syrian forces had successfully regrouped “after evacuating the airport.â€
Tabqa is home to an array of fighter jets, helicopters, tanks, artillery, and large caches of ammunition. It is unknown if Syrian forces were able to secure their armaments before conceding defeat and evacuating the base.
ISIS Threatens U.S. on Twitter
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 17/Aug/2014 12:45
From Gateway Pundit:
A photo posted to Twitter on Saturday by a supporter of the terrorist group the Islamic State (aka ISIS or ISIL) shows a cellphone screen with a large image of the black flag of jihad being held up so the White House is seen in the background. The Twitter account @mhajr93 posted the image.
The undated photo was taken at night from the Pennsylvania Avenue side of the White House. The brightly lit North Portico is clearly seen in the background of the photo.
ISIS Incursion in to Lebanon
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 13/Aug/2014 12:52
From Yahoo News:
According to The Telegraph, a Syrian rebel group set up check-points in the border city but have not yet declared the area as part of the caliphate. In addition to 40,000 residents, there are roughly 120,000 refugees living in Arsal.
Nigeria: Opting Out of an Insurgency
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 22/Jul/2014 12:51
“Nigeria: Opting Out of an Insurgency is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
Editor’s Note:Â This is the third installment in a three-part series on militant activity in Nigeria.Â
In some ways, the future of northern Nigeria’s counterinsurgency rests in the hands of Nigerian voters. If President Goodluck Jonathan is elected for another term, the Boko Haram campaign will intensify. If Jonathan loses, the presidency would go to a northerner, who would be better suited to developing the political, social and economic relationships needed to wage an effective counterinsurgency.
Analysis
Of course, the presidential election is a national contest, not a regional one, and so the consequences stretch far beyond northern Nigeria. Though Boko Haram has captured the attention of international media, it is not the only militant group with which Abuja contends, nor is it the only group that has a vested interest in the election’s outcome. If Jonathan is not re-elected and Niger Delta militants lose their political patronage, they will probably attack oil infrastructure in the country’s southwest, as they did in the mid-2000s. Nigeria conceivably could see two active insurgencies, depending on how the election plays out.
However, it is still possible to placate Niger Delta militants even if Jonathan loses. If Niger Delta officials are appointed to senior posts in the new administration, they could keep their patronage networks intact. Read the rest of this entry »
Iraq: Examining the Professed Caliphate
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 9/Jul/2014 07:42
“Iraq: Examining the Professed Caliphate is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
The Islamic State, previously known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, has changed its name, but otherwise the militant group remains the same. Over the past weekend, a spokesman for the group announced that it had established a caliphate stretching from Diyala province, Iraq, to Aleppo, Syria. The caliphate is a political institution that the Islamic State claims will govern the global Muslim community. “Iraq” and “Levant” have been dropped from the organization’s name to reflect its new status.
The trouble with the announcement is that the Islamic State does not have a caliphate and probably never will. No amount of new monikers will change the fact that geography, political ideology and religious, cultural and ethnic differences will prevent the emergence of a singular polity capable of ruling the greater Middle East. Transnational jihadist groups can exploit weakened autocratic states, but they cannot institutionalize their power enough to govern such a large expanse of land. If anything, the Islamic State’s drive to unify the Middle East will actually create more conflicts than it will end as competing emirates vie for power in the new political environment.
Jordan Could Be the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant’s Next Target
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 27/Jun/2014 07:58
“Jordan Could Be the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant’s Next Target is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, buoyed by its recent successes in Iraq, wants to expand its regional reach. Reports that Iraq has withdrawn forces from western towns close to its 180-kilometer (110-mile) border with Jordan have left Amman feeling vulnerable, and the Hashemite kingdom, certainly a target of interest for the jihadist movement, has deployed additional security personnel along the border.
However, taking on Jordan would be tough for the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. The group has the ability to stage terrorist attacks in the country, but significant constraints will prevent it from operating on the levels seen in Iraq and Syria.