The rise of the Islamic State will inspire other jihadist groups to claim their own caliphates and emirates. In the long run, the extremism of these contrived dominions and the competition among them will undermine the jihadist movement. However, before that happens, the world will witness much upheaval.
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Posts Tagged terrorism
As Caliphates Compete, Radical Islam Will Eventually Weaken
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 12/Sep/2014 12:48
“As Caliphates Compete, Radical Islam Will Eventually Weaken is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
Analysis
In a 52-minute video that surfaced in late August, Abubakar Shekau, the head of Nigerian jihadist group Boko Haram, spoke of an Islamic State in northeastern Nigeria. The statement came two months after Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the chief of the transnational jihadist movement in Syria and Iraq, declared the re-establishment of the caliphate, renaming the group the Islamic State. Though likely inspired by the Islamic State, Boko Haram is not simply mimicking its more powerful Syrian-Iraqi counterpart; it is taking its cue from the Nigeria-based Sokoto Caliphate, which was established in the early 1800s and existed for almost a century until Britain gained control of the region.
The Caliphate’s Role in History
According to classical Muslim political theorists, there can be only one caliphate for the entire Muslim global community, or ummah. In practice, though, there have been rival claimants to authority and even competing caliphates throughout the history of Islam. In our July 1 analysis on the subject, Stratfor explained not only how multiple emirates and sultanates emerged independently of the caliphate but also that there were rival caliphates — for example, the Abbasid in Baghdad (749-1258), Umayyad in the Iberian Peninsula (929-1031) and Fatimid in Cairo (909-1171).
Read the rest of this entry »
Pre and Post-9/11 Crises
From RAND:
The main difference between the immediate post-Cold War decade and the post-9/11 era as regards the variety of international challenges is that during that earlier period these challenges were faced and dealt with seriatim, rather than allowed to accumulate. Each of the above cited hurdles was taken, for the most part successfully, before the next was encountered. As a consequence, the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations usually had the luxury of managing only one serious crisis at a time.
Terrorism as Theater
“Terrorism as Theater is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By Robert D. Kaplan
The beheading of American journalist James Foley by the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq was much more than an altogether gruesome and tragic affair: rather, it was a very sophisticated and professional film production deliberately punctuated with powerful symbols. Foley was dressed in an orange jumpsuit reminiscent of the Muslim prisoners held by the United States at Guantanamo Bay. He made his confession forcefully, as if well rehearsed. His executioner, masked and clad in black, made an equally long statement in a calm, British accent, again, as if rehearsed. It was as if the killing was secondary to the message being sent. Read the rest of this entry »
In Iraq, the United States and Iran Align Against the Islamic State
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 26/Aug/2014 12:36
“In Iraq, the United States and Iran Align Against the Islamic State is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
Since June, a great deal of international focus has been on Iraq, where the transnational jihadist movement Islamic State took over large swaths of the country’s Sunni-majority areas and declared the re-establishment of the caliphate. Despite the global attention on the country, especially given U.S. military operations against the Islamic State, U.S.-Iranian cooperation against the jihadist group — a significant dynamic — has gone largely unnoticed. A convergence of interests, particularly concerning the Iraqi central and Kurdish regional governments, has made it necessary for Washington and Tehran to at least coordinate their actions. However, mistrust and domestic opposition will continue hampering this cooperation.
US and British Special Forces On the Ground Hunting ISIS Leadership
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 25/Aug/2014 15:16
From The Mirror:
Elite British and US special forces troops are forming a hunter killer unit called Task Force Black – its orders: “Smash the Islamic State.â€
The undercover warriors will aim to “cut the head off the snake†by hitting the command structure of the Islamist terror group responsible for a trail of atrocities across Iraq and Syria, reports the Sunday People.
ISIS Takes Control of Syrian Air Base
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 25/Aug/2014 14:46
From Breitbart.com:
President Bashar al-Assad’s state-run Syrian news agency admitted Sunday that the Tabqa air base had indeed been lost and that Syrian forces had successfully regrouped “after evacuating the airport.â€
Tabqa is home to an array of fighter jets, helicopters, tanks, artillery, and large caches of ammunition. It is unknown if Syrian forces were able to secure their armaments before conceding defeat and evacuating the base.
Yazidis vs ISIS
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 21/Aug/2014 12:18
From Townhall.com:
What’s happening to this peaceful group of people is appalling. But the Yazidis are fighting back. Kurdish forces in Syria have already trained “hundreds” of them, according to Reuters, all of whom are now reportedly returning to the battlefield in Iraq
ISIS Threatens U.S. on Twitter
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 17/Aug/2014 12:45
From Gateway Pundit:
A photo posted to Twitter on Saturday by a supporter of the terrorist group the Islamic State (aka ISIS or ISIL) shows a cellphone screen with a large image of the black flag of jihad being held up so the White House is seen in the background. The Twitter account @mhajr93 posted the image.
The undated photo was taken at night from the Pennsylvania Avenue side of the White House. The brightly lit North Portico is clearly seen in the background of the photo.
U.S. Concerned With “Homegrown Extremists” While Border Is Wide Open
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 6/Aug/2014 12:50
From Yahoo News:
The Department of Justice will reconstitute a task force that was originally formed after the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing but dissolved after the Sept. 11, 2001 hijacked plane attacks as law enforcement agencies focused on threats from militants abroad.
“We must also concern ourselves with the continued danger we face from individuals within our own borders who may be motivated by a variety of other causes from anti-government animus to racial prejudice,” Holder said.
Examining the Terrorist Threat from America’s Southern Border
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 30/Jul/2014 12:00
“Examining the Terrorist Threat from America’s Southern Border is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By Scott Stewart
On July 21, Texas Gov. Rick Perry announced he was deploying 1,000 members of the Texas National Guard to the Mexican border to help strengthen border security. The move is the latest in a chain of events involving the emigration of Central Americans that has become heavily publicized — and politicized.
Clearly, illegal immigration flows are shifting from Arizona and California to Texas. In fiscal year 2013, the Rio Grande Valley Border Patrol sector surpassed Tucson as the leading sector for the number of apprehensions (154,453 in Rio Grande Valley versus 120,939 for Tucson). Also, between fiscal 2011 and 2013 (all Border Patrol data is recorded by fiscal year), the number of “other than Mexicans” — mostly Central Americans — apprehended in the Rio Grande Valley sector increased by more than 360 percent, from 20,890 to 96,829. (By comparison, the Tucson sector apprehended 19,847 “other than Mexicans” in 2013. Significantly, minors constituted a large percentage of the “other than Mexicans” apprehended in the Rio Grande Valley in 2013: 21,553 (compared to 9,070 in Tucson sector). However, the majority (84 percent) of those labeled Unaccompanied Alien Children by the Border Patrol are teenage minors and not younger children. Read the rest of this entry »
Former Gitmo Detainee Arrested In Spain
Posted by Brian in Threat Watch on 3/Jul/2014 07:03
From Judicial Watch:
In a story unlikely to receive attention from the mainstream media in the United States, a former Guantanamo Bay captive has been arrested in Spain for operating what authorities there say is a sophisticated jihadist recruitment network.
Spanish media is reporting that the one-time Gitmo prisoner is a 46-year-old Moroccan named Lahcen Ikassrien, who heads an Islamic cell that recruits fighters for the Syrian and Iraqi-based terror group known as Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Ikassrien and seven others were arrested in Madrid recently as part of a dozen raids on terrorism cells in the Spanish capital, Madrid.
Jordan Could Be the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant’s Next Target
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 27/Jun/2014 07:58
“Jordan Could Be the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant’s Next Target is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, buoyed by its recent successes in Iraq, wants to expand its regional reach. Reports that Iraq has withdrawn forces from western towns close to its 180-kilometer (110-mile) border with Jordan have left Amman feeling vulnerable, and the Hashemite kingdom, certainly a target of interest for the jihadist movement, has deployed additional security personnel along the border.
However, taking on Jordan would be tough for the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. The group has the ability to stage terrorist attacks in the country, but significant constraints will prevent it from operating on the levels seen in Iraq and Syria.
Taliban Attack Karachi Airport
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 12/Jun/2014 12:23
From The New York Times:
A squad of militant commandos, disguised as government security forces, stormed Karachi’s international airport after dark. They carried food, water and ammunition, apparently in preparation for a long siege, and big ambitions: perhaps to hijack a commercial airliner, government officials said Monday, or to blow up an oil depot, or to destroy airplanes on the tarmac.
Al Qaeda Inspire Magazine Encouraging Lone Wolves
Posted by Brian in Threat Watch on 21/May/2014 12:51
From SOFREP:
The first section of the article was aptly named “OSJ Bomb School†and provided step-by-step instructions on how to make a car bomb “…even in countries with tight security and surveillance.†The explanation was simple, the individual parts and pieces don’t raise concern when purchased or acquired but, when assembled they can create a devastating explosive device. The list of items that are said not to raise suspicion when bought individually include: epoxy, Christmas lights, barometers, gas grill propane tanks, and oxygen cylinders.