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Posts Tagged asia
Ending The Violence In Ukraine
From US News:
Of immediate concern is preventing the fighting from escalating still further into a bloody civil war. The risk of a broader conflict would increase significantly if Yanukovych feels compelled to call in the army in a desperate last-ditch attempt to restore order. However, such a course is fraught with serious risks, especially if some army units refuse an order to fire on their fellow citizens.
Russia Strengthens Ties With Vietnam
“Russia Strengthens Ties With Vietnam is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
Editor’s Note:Â This is the first of a three-part series about Russia’s intensifying focus on East Asia. Part 1 examines Russia’s traditional interests in the region and its closer relationship with Vietnam.
Recent challenges in exporting energy to Europe have made an orientation toward Asia more desirable for Moscow. Russia’s economy depends on hydrocarbon exports, and while Western Europe is attempting to become less dependent on Russia by seeking new energy sources, Asian markets have large and indiscriminate appetites for energy.
Although Russia’s focus in Asia traditionally has been on China, Japan and South Korea, it also has ties to Southeast Asia, which remains a strategically significant — though not absolutely essential — area for Moscow’s efforts to extend its influence and energy exports eastward. Notably, Moscow recently struck a spate of energy and defense deals with Hanoi in an effort to strengthen their relationship, open up new markets for Russian energy and balance against China’s moves in Central Asia. Moscow’s moves into Asia through Vietnam are proceeding piecemeal, paralleling Russian moves elsewhere in the region. Read the rest of this entry »
Letter from Kurdistan
“Letter from Kurdistan is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By Reva Bhalla
At the edge of empires lies Kurdistan, the land of the Kurds. The jagged landscape has long been the scene of imperial aggression. For centuries, Turks, Persians, Arabs, Russians and Europeans looked to the mountains to buffer their territorial prizes farther afield, depriving the local mountain dwellers a say in whose throne they would ultimately bow to. Read the rest of this entry »
China’s Inevitable Changes
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 18/Nov/2013 08:57
“China’s Inevitable Changes is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By Rodger Baker and John Minnich
The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will convene its Third Plenum meeting Nov. 9. During the three-day session, President Xi Jinping’s administration will outline core reforms to guide its policymaking for the next decade. The Chinese government would have the world believe that Xi’s will be the most momentous Third Plenary Session since December 1978, when former supreme leader Deng Xiaoping first put China on the path of economic reform and opening.
Whether or not Xi’s policies will be as decisive as Deng’s — or as disappointing as those of former President Hu Jintao — the president has little choice but to implement them. China’s current economic model, and by extension its political and social model, is reaching its limits just as it had prior to Deng’s administration. The importance of the upcoming meeting is that it comes at an inflection point for China, one that its leaders can hardly afford to ignore. Read the rest of this entry »
China: The Next Phase of Reform
“China: The Next Phase of Reform is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
The commitment and ability of China’s leaders to follow through on new policies and to meet rising expectations will be tested as they strive to balance competing social, economic, political and security challenges. Three decades ago, China embarked on a new path, creating a framework that encouraged the country’s rapid economic rise. The successes of those policies have transformed China, and the country’s leadership now faces another set of strategic choices to address China’s new economic and international position.
The much-anticipated Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee concluded Nov. 12 after four days of closed-door deliberations among top political elites. The full document containing the policy proposals will not be released for days or even a week, but the initial information suggests China’s leaders are seeking more significant changes in their policies to try to stay ahead of the challenges the country faces. Read the rest of this entry »
Central Asia and Afghanistan: A Tumultuous History
“Central Asia and Afghanistan: A Tumultuous History is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
Editor’s Note: This is the first installment of a two-part series on the relationship between Central Asia and Afghanistan and the expected effects of the U.S. drawdown in Afghanistan on Central Asian security. Click here to read Part 2.
Contrary to popular perception, Central Asia is not likely to see an immediate explosion of violence and militancy after the U.S. and NATO drawdown from Afghanistan in 2014. However, Central Asia’s internal issues and the region’s many links with Afghanistan — including a web of relationships among militant groups — will add to the volatility in the region.
Analysis
Central Asia has numerous important links to Afghanistan that will open the region to significant effects after the upcoming U.S. and NATO drawdown. First and foremost, Central Asia is linked to Afghanistan geographically; Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan share borders with Afghanistan that collectively span more than 2,000 kilometers (about 1,240 miles). The Afghan border with Tajikistan, along the eastern edge of Afghanistan, makes up more than half of that distance, at 1,344 kilometers. The borders with Turkmenistan (744 kilometers) and Uzbekistan (137 kilometers) run along Afghanistan’s western edge. Most of the Tajik-Afghan border is mountainous and therefore poorly demarcated, and the topography of Afghanistan’s frontiers with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan is largely desert. Read the rest of this entry »
A Possible U.S.-China Conflict
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 6/Sep/2013 08:04
From RAND Corporation:
Having been impotent against two U.S. aircraft carriers during the Taiwan crisis of 1996, the People’s Liberation Army has concluded, as Chinese military writings show, that the best way to avoid another such humiliation is by striking U.S. forces before they strike China. While not seeking war, the Chinese especially dread a long one, in which the full weight of American military strength would surely prevail. So they are crafting plans and fielding capabilities to take out U.S. carriers, air bases, command-and-control networks and satellites early and swiftly.
China’s Space Program Tries to Catch Up
“China’s Space Program Tries to Catch Up is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
China’s strategic focus on space is less about national pride than about the importance of space for both the military and economic progress of the country. The Chinese space program has developed rapidly over the past decade, illustrating the importance of the program to Beijing. Shenzhou 10, a 15-day mission that began June 11 and returned to Earth the morning of June 26 marked China’s fifth manned mission to space. An increasing, ongoing presence in space is essential for civilian and military communications. Satellites’ functions include navigation systems such as GPS, weather data and communications relays. But the significance of space goes beyond satellites. Technological advancement and development is required for countries such as China that want to participate in future resource development in space. Read the rest of this entry »
KC-135 Crash in Kyrgyzstan
A KC-135 has crashed just a few days after a 747 crashed in Bagram.
From Military Times:
This is the third crash of a U.S.-based plane in the region in the last week, following two crashes in Afghanistan. An MC-12 Liberty surveillance plane crashed April 27 near Kandahar Airfield, killing crewmembers Capt. Brandon Cyr, Capt. Reid Nishizuka, Staff Sgt. Richard Dickson and Staff Sgt. Daniel Fannin. On April 29, a Boeing 747 belonging to National Air Cargo crashed on takeoff out of Bagram Airfield, killing seven crewmembers.
China and North Korea: A Tangled Partnership
“China and North Korea: A Tangled Partnership is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By Rodger Baker
Vice President of East Asia Analysis
China appears to be growing frustrated with North Korea’s behavior, perhaps to the point of changing its long-standing support for Pyongyang. As North Korea’s largest economic sponsor, Beijing has provided the North Korean regime with crucial aid for years and offered it diplomatic protection against the United States and other powers. To outsiders, China’s alliance with North Korea seems like a Cold War relic with little reason for persisting into the 21st century. However, Beijing’s continued support for Pyongyang is not rooted in shared ideology or past cooperation nearly as much as in China’s own security calculations.
Perhaps nothing sums up the modern relationship more effectively than the oft repeated comment that the two countries are “as close as lips and teeth.” Far from a statement of intense friendship, the completion of that Chinese aphorism — “When the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold” — highlights China’s interest in propping up the North Korean regime. North Korea serves as a buffer state for China’s northeast, and though Pyongyang can exploit that need, the North Korean leadership harbors no illusion that China is truly interested in the survival of any particular North Korean regime so long as Beijing can keep its buffer. Read the rest of this entry »
Considering a Departure in North Korea’s Strategy
“Considering a Departure in North Korea’s Strategy is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By George Friedman
Founder and Chairman
On Jan. 29, I wrote a piece that described North Korea’s strategy as a combination of ferocious, weak and crazy. In the weeks since then, three events have exemplified each facet of that strategy. Pyongyang showed its ferocity Feb. 12, when it detonated a nuclear device underground. The country’s only significant ally, China, voted against Pyongyang in the U.N. Security Council on March 7, demonstrating North Korea’s weakness. Finally, Pyongyang announced it would suspend the armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953, implying that that war would resume and that U.S. cities would be turned into “seas of fire.” To me, that fulfills the crazy element.
My argument was that the three tenets — ferocity, weakness and insanity — form a coherent strategy. North Korea’s primary goal is regime preservation. Demonstrating ferocity — appearing to be close to being nuclear capable — makes other countries cautious. Weakness, such as being completely isolated from the world generally and from China particularly, prevents other countries from taking drastic action if they believe North Korea will soon fall. The pretense of insanity — threatening to attack the United States, for example — makes North Korea appear completely unpredictable, forcing everyone to be cautious. The three work together to limit the actions of other nations. Read the rest of this entry »
New Sanctions For North Korea
From Sky News:
A resolution passed by the 15-member body added three new individuals and two entities to the UN sanctions blacklist.
It also tightened restrictions on the North’s financial dealings, including “bulk cash” transfers, linked to its weapons programmes.
The Past, Present and Future of Russian Energy Strategy
“The Past, Present and Future of Russian Energy Strategy is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By Lauren Goodrich and Marc Lanthemann
The future of Russia’s ability to remain a global energy supplier and the strength the Russian energy sector gives the Kremlin are increasingly in question. After a decade of robust energy exports and revenues, Russia is cutting natural gas prices to Europe while revenue projections for its energy behemoth, Gazprom, are declining starting this year.
Russia holds the world’s largest proven reserves of natural gas and continually alternates with Saudi Arabia as the top oil producer. The country supplies a third of Europe’s oil and natural gas and is starting to export more to the energy-hungry East Asian markets. The energy sector is far more than a commercial asset for Moscow; it has been one of the pillars of Russia’s stabilization and increasing strength for more than a century. The Kremlin has designated energy security as the primary issue for Russia’s national security, especially since recent changes in global and domestic trends have cast doubts on the energy sector’s continuing strength.
Throughout Russian history, the country’s energy sector periodically has strengthened and weakened. Managing this cycle has been a centerpiece of Russia’s domestic and foreign policy since czarist times. This historical burden now rests on Vladimir Putin’s regime. Read the rest of this entry »
In Pakistan, Mixed Results From a Peshawar Attack
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 24/Dec/2012 08:21
“In Pakistan, Mixed Results From a Peshawar Attack is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By Ben West
The Pakistani Taliban continue to undermine Pakistan’s government and military establishment, and in doing so, they continue to raise questions over the security of the country’s nuclear arsenal. On Dec. 15, 10 militants armed with suicide vests and grenades attacked Peshawar Air Force Base, the site of a third major operation by the Pakistani Taliban since May 2011. Tactically, the attack was relatively unsuccessful — all the militants were killed, and the perimeter of the air base was not breached — but the Pakistani Taliban nonetheless achieved their objective.
The attack began the night of Dec. 15 with a volley of three to five mortar shells. As the shells were fired, militants detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device near the perimeter wall of the air base. Reports indicate that all five militants inside the vehicle were killed. The other five militants engaged security forces in a nearby residential area and eventually were driven back before they could enter the air base. The next day, security forces acting on a report of suspicious activity confronted the militants, who all died in the resultant shootout. Read the rest of this entry »