Since June, a great deal of international focus has been on Iraq, where the transnational jihadist movement Islamic State took over large swaths of the country’s Sunni-majority areas and declared the re-establishment of the caliphate. Despite the global attention on the country, especially given U.S. military operations against the Islamic State, U.S.-Iranian cooperation against the jihadist group — a significant dynamic — has gone largely unnoticed. A convergence of interests, particularly concerning the Iraqi central and Kurdish regional governments, has made it necessary for Washington and Tehran to at least coordinate their actions. However, mistrust and domestic opposition will continue hampering this cooperation.
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Posts Tagged diplomacy
CIA Delays Publishing Book Critical Of Hillary
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 24/Oct/2016 07:00
From The Daily Mail:
The CIA has been accused of political bias by trying to stall publication of an explosive memoir which could damage Hillary Clinton’s chances of reaching the White House.
The book tells the story of CIA contractor Raymond Davis, who was imprisoned in Pakistan in 2011 after shooting two men in self defense before being released in a controversial blood-money deal.
World War II and the Origins of American Unease
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 16/May/2015 07:00
“World War II and the Origins of American Unease is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
We are at the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe. That victory did not usher in an era of universal peace. Rather, it introduced a new constellation of powers and a complex balance among them. Europe’s great powers and empires declined, and the United States and the Soviet Union replaced them, performing an old dance to new musical instruments. Technology, geopolitics’ companion, evolved dramatically as nuclear weapons, satellites and the microchip — among myriad wonders and horrors — changed not only the rules of war but also the circumstances under which war was possible. But one thing remained constant: Geopolitics, technology and war remained inseparable comrades.
It is easy to say what World War II did not change, but what it did change is also important. The first thing that leaps to mind is the manner in which World War II began for the three great powers: the United States, the Soviet Union and the United Kingdom. For all three, the war started with a shock that redefined their view of the world. For the United States, it was the shock of Pearl Harbor. For the Soviet Union, it was the shock of the German invasion in June 1941. For the United Kingdom — and this was not really at the beginning of the war — it was shock at the speed with which France collapsed. Read the rest of this entry »
In Iraq, the United States and Iran Align Against the Islamic State
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 26/Aug/2014 12:36
“In Iraq, the United States and Iran Align Against the Islamic State is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
Next Steps for the U.S.-Iran Deal
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 7/Dec/2013 08:10
“Next Steps for the U.S.-Iran Deal is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
What was unthinkable for many people over many years happened in the early hours of Nov. 24 in Geneva: The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran struck a deal. After a decadelong struggle, the two reached an accord that seeks to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program remains a civilian one. It is a preliminary deal, and both sides face months of work to batten down domestic opposition, build convincing mechanisms to assure compliance and unthread complicated global sanctions.
That is the easy part. More difficult will be the process to reshape bilateral relations while virtually every regional player in the Middle East seeks ways to cope with an Iran that is no longer geopolitically encumbered. Read the rest of this entry »
Syria, America and Putin’s Bluff
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 10/Sep/2013 16:42
“Syria, America and Putin’s Bluff is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By George Friedman
In recent weeks I’ve written about U.S. President Barack Obama’s bluff on Syria and the tightrope he is now walking on military intervention. There is another bluff going on that has to be understood, this one from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin is bluffing that Russia has emerged as a major world power. In reality, Russia is merely a regional power, but mainly because its periphery is in shambles. He has tried to project a strength that that he doesn’t have, and he has done it well. For him, Syria poses a problem because the United States is about to call his bluff, and he is not holding strong cards. To understand his game we need to start with the recent G-20 meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia. Read the rest of this entry »
A New Reality in U.S.-Israeli Relations
“A New Reality in U.S.-Israeli Relations is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By George Friedman
Founder and Chairman
U.S. President Barack Obama is making his first visit to Israel as president. The visit comes in the wake of his re-election and inauguration to a second term and the formation of a new Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Normally, summits between Israel and the United States are filled with foreign policy issues on both sides, and there will be many discussed at this meeting, including Iran, Syria and Egypt. But this summit takes place in an interesting climate, because both the Americans and Israelis are less interested in foreign and security matters than they are in their respective domestic issues.
In the United States, the political crisis over the federal budget and the struggle to grow the economy and reduce unemployment has dominated the president’s and the country’s attention. The Israeli elections turned on domestic issues, ranging from whether the ultra-Orthodox would be required to serve in Israel Defense Forces, as other citizens are, to a growing controversy over economic inequality in Israel.
Inwardness is a cyclic norm in most countries. Foreign policy does not always dominate the agenda and periodically it becomes less important. What is interesting is at this point, while Israelis continue to express concern about foreign policy, they are most passionate on divisive internal social issues. Similarly, although there continues to be a war in Afghanistan, the American public is heavily focused on economic issues. Under these circumstances the interesting question is not what Obama and Netanyahu will talk about but whether what they discuss will matter much. Read the rest of this entry »
Considering a Departure in North Korea’s Strategy
“Considering a Departure in North Korea’s Strategy is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By George Friedman
Founder and Chairman
On Jan. 29, I wrote a piece that described North Korea’s strategy as a combination of ferocious, weak and crazy. In the weeks since then, three events have exemplified each facet of that strategy. Pyongyang showed its ferocity Feb. 12, when it detonated a nuclear device underground. The country’s only significant ally, China, voted against Pyongyang in the U.N. Security Council on March 7, demonstrating North Korea’s weakness. Finally, Pyongyang announced it would suspend the armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953, implying that that war would resume and that U.S. cities would be turned into “seas of fire.” To me, that fulfills the crazy element.
My argument was that the three tenets — ferocity, weakness and insanity — form a coherent strategy. North Korea’s primary goal is regime preservation. Demonstrating ferocity — appearing to be close to being nuclear capable — makes other countries cautious. Weakness, such as being completely isolated from the world generally and from China particularly, prevents other countries from taking drastic action if they believe North Korea will soon fall. The pretense of insanity — threatening to attack the United States, for example — makes North Korea appear completely unpredictable, forcing everyone to be cautious. The three work together to limit the actions of other nations. Read the rest of this entry »
U.S.-Iranian Dialogue in Obama’s Second Term
“U.S.-Iranian Dialogue in Obama’s Second Term is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By Reva Bhalla
Vice President of Global Affairs
As U.S. President Barack Obama’s second-term foreign policy team begins to take shape, Iran remains unfinished business for the U.S. administration. The diplomatic malaise surrounding this issue over the past decade has taken its toll on Washington and Tehran. Even as the United States and Iran are putting out feelers for another round of negotiations, expectations for any breakthrough understandably remain low. Still, there has been enough movement over the past week to warrant a closer look at this long-standing diplomatic impasse.
At the Munich Security Conference held Feb. 1-3, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said the United States would be willing to hold direct talks with Iran under the right conditions. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi responded positively to the offer but warned that Iran would not commit unless Washington shows a “fair and real” intention to resolve the issues dividing the two sides. Read the rest of this entry »
Israeli President Pressuring U.S. to Strike Iran
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 7/Feb/2013 08:04
From Business Insider:
Netanyahu said that Israel was simply not strong enough to force a halt to Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. In order to halt the program, Bibi said, the U.S. would have to strike, and they must do so this year.
Poland’s Strategy
“Poland’s Strategy is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By George Friedman
Polish national strategy pivots around a single, existential issue: how to preserve its national identity and independence. Located on the oft-invaded North European Plain, Poland’s existence is heavily susceptible to the moves of major Eurasian powers. Therefore, Polish history has been erratic, with Poland moving from independence — even regional dominance — to simply disappearing from the map, surviving only in language and memory before emerging once again.
For some countries, geopolitics is a marginal issue. Win or lose, life goes on. But for Poland, geopolitics is an existential issue; losing begets national catastrophe. Therefore, Poland’s national strategy inevitably is designed with an underlying sense of fear and desperation. Nothing in Polish history would indicate that disaster is impossible. Read the rest of this entry »
Tensions and Operational Challenges in Pakistan
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 9/Jun/2012 13:24
By Scott Stewart
On June 4, four U.S. diplomats assigned to the Consulate General of the United States in Peshawar, Pakistan, were stopped at a military checkpoint and temporarily detained after refusing to allow their two vehicles to be searched. The diplomats — including a vice consul — were traveling in a two-vehicle motorcade and were accompanied by three Pakistani Foreign Service National (FSN) security officers.
According to media reports, the Pakistani military has charged that the diplomats had traveled to Malakand without first obtaining permission from the Pakistani government. Malakand is a city located about 120 kilometers (75 miles) northeast of Peshawar in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, formerly known as the Northwest Frontier Province. Because of the problems Pakistan has had with foreign jihadists in its border badlands, all foreigners are required to obtain something called a No Objection Certificate from Pakistan’s Interior Ministry before visiting areas in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and the adjacent Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Furthermore, the Pakistani press noted that the Pakistani military also objected to the Americans and their Pakistani FSNs’ being armed and operating vehicles with fake license plates to disguise the diplomatic vehicles. Read the rest of this entry »
Eaten are the Peace Makers
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Threat Watch on 20/Jan/2010 20:49
In 1835, a few hundred miles east of New Zealand, an island society with “a tradition of resolving disputes peacefully” met a brutal and bloody end because they decided not to fight back but “to offer peace, friendship, and a division of resources”.
The Moriori people preferred to negotiate and compromise. However, the Maori, armed with guns, clubs and axes, were not interested in diplomacy. Hundreds of Maori poured off their ships onto Moriori turf and attacked before any peace offering was given. Even though the Moriori far outnumbered their attackers, they chose not to resist, so they were slaughtered.
According to a survivor, “[The Maori] commenced to kill us like sheep. . . . [We] were terrified, fled to the bush, concealed ourselves in holes underground, and in any place to escape our enemies. It was of no avail; we were discovered and killed—men, women, and children indiscriminately.â€
Over the next few days, the Maori “killed hundreds of Moriori, cooked and ate many of the bodies”.
And what was the Maori perspective on this event?
“We took possession. . . in accordance with our customs and we caught all the people. Not one escaped. Some ran away from us, these we killed, and others we killed—but what of that? It was in accordance with our custom.â€
Question: What is the custom of our enemy? Have they decided to “take possession”? Are we foolish to think that an offer of peace, friendship, and a division of resources is going do any good?
True, fighting back is not the only answer, sometimes good things are accomplished through negotiation. But if you make a choice like the Moriori did, and you are facing an enemy like the Maori, your lack of resistance will only be seen as weakness and you will be killed like sheep – along with your women and children.
(quotes from the book, “Guns, Germs and Steel†by Jared Diamond)
I wonder how the story of the Moriori might have been different if they’d responded more like the Lumbee?
(The Lumbee were a small tribe of Indians in the United States that “…had always considered themselves indian, but were classified and treated as descendants of blacks.”)
In 1958, in Robeson County, South Carolina, the Lumbee rallied their men and resisted an attack by the KKK.
The end result when the fight was over?
“The Klan ceased to exist in Robeson County until 1984.”
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/1/17/124611/522