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Archive for category Threat Watch
Fighting Grassroots Terrorism: How Local Vigilance Can Help
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 8/Aug/2011 12:09
This report is republished with the permission of STRATFOR.
By Scott Stewart
In the wake of the 
July 22 Oslo attacks, as I have talked with people in the United States and Europe, I have noticed two themes in the conversations. The first is the claim that the attacks came from an unexpected source and were therefore impossible to stop. The second theme is that detecting such attacks is the sole province of dedicated counterterrorism authorities.
As discussed in last week’s Security Weekly, even in so-called unexpected attacks there are specific operational tasks that must be executed in order to conduct an operation. Such tasks can be detected, and unexpected attacks emanating from lone wolf actors can indeed be thwarted if such indicators are being looked for. Alleged Oslo attack perpetrator Anders Breivik reportedly conducted several actions that would have made him vulnerable to detection had the authorities been vigilant and focused on those possible actions.
This is why it is critical to look at the mechanics of attacks in order to identify the steps that must be undertaken to complete them and then focus on identifying people taking such steps. Focusing on the “how†rather than the “who†is an effective way for authorities to get on the proactive side of the action/reaction continuum.
Considering this concept of focusing on the how, one quickly reaches a convergence with the second theme, which involves the role and capabilities of dedicated counterterrorism resources. The primary agency tasked with counterterrorism in most countries tends to have limited resources that are stretched thin trying to cover known or suspected threats. These agencies simply do not have the manpower to look for attack-planning indicators — especially in a world where militant actors are increasingly adopting the leaderless-resistance model, which is designed to avoid detection by counterterrorism forces. Read the rest of this entry »
Top US Envoy in Talks with Pakistani, Afghan Officials
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 3/Aug/2011 14:52
The talks come as the two allies in the war against terrorism are trying to ease diplomatic tensions that have worsened since al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden was killed in a U.S. commando raid into Pakistan on May 2.
Norway: Lessons from a Successful Lone Wolf Attacker
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 28/Jul/2011 22:32
Norway: Lessons from a Successful Lone Wolf Attacker is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Scott Stewart
On the afternoon of July 22, a powerful explosion ripped through the streets of Oslo, Norway, as a large improvised explosive device (IED) in a rented van detonated between the government building housing the prime minister’s office and Norway’s Oil and Energy Department building. According to the diary of Anders Breivik, the man arrested in the case who has confessed to fabricating and placing the device, the van had been filled with 950 kilograms (about 2,100 pounds) of homemade ammonium nitrate-based explosives.
After lighting the fuse on his IED, Breivik left the scene in a rented car and traveled to the island of Utoya, located about 32 kilometers (20 miles) outside of Oslo. The island was the site of a youth campout organized by Norway’s ruling Labor Party. Before taking a boat to the island, Breivik donned body armor and tactical gear bearing police insignia (intended to afford him the element of tactical surprise). Once on the island he opened fire on the attendees at the youth camp with his firearms, a semiautomatic 5.56-caliber Ruger Mini-14 rifle and a 9 mm Glock pistol. Due to the location of the camp on a remote island, Breivik had time to kill 68 people and wound another 60 before police responded to the scene. Read the rest of this entry »
Possible Fort Hood Attack Thwarted?
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 28/Jul/2011 22:17
From STRATFOR
An AWOL U.S. soldier was arrested the evening of July 27 on an outstanding child pornography warrant in Killeen, Texas, and is suspected to have been plotting an attack on Fort Hood. The suspect, Pfc. Nasser Jason Abdo from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, was reportedly arrested by the Killeen Police Department after an alert citizen noticed he was acting suspiciously and called police. Local TV station KCEN said explosives were found in his car, and FOX News is reporting two other U.S. military personnel have been arrested and that weapons and explosives were also found in their possession. According to STRATFOR sources in the U.S. law enforcement community, a reported plot by three U.S. military personnel to attack Fort Hood was in the advanced stages of planning.
Though there is no confirmation that an attack was in the works, the reports are reason for concern. STRATFOR has written about the possibility of grassroots plots, particularly in revenge for the killing of Osama bin Laden. The fear is that Abdo or the other two suspects were planning an attack similar to that of U.S. Army Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, who carried out one of the few successful grassroots attacks in the United States due to his tactical choice of conducting an armed assault. Read the rest of this entry »
Chinese Fighters Cross “Middle Line” With Taiwan
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 25/Jul/2011 22:14
From Financial Times:
Two Chinese fighter jets crossed an unofficial dividing line in the Taiwan Strait late last month in pursuit of a US spy aircraft, according to defence sources in Taipei and Beijing.
Confirmation of the close encounter comes as the US and China are trying to cool tensions in the South China Sea and safeguard a recent improvement in bilateral military relations.
Protecting Your Home While You’re Traveling
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 24/Jul/2011 09:52
Pakistan’s Military Plotted to Tilt U.S. Policy, F.B.I. Says
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 19/Jul/2011 21:59
By CHARLIE SAVAGE and ERIC SCHMITT
WASHINGTON — “Pakistan’s military, including its powerful spy agency, has spent $4 million over two decades in a covert attempt to tilt American policy against India’s control of much of Kashmir — including funneling campaign donations to members of Congress and presidential candidates, the F.B.I. claimed in court papers unsealed Tuesday.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/20/us/politics/20agent.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
Arizona Officials, Fed Up With U.S. Efforts, Seek Donations to Build Border Fence
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 19/Jul/2011 21:58
By MARC LACEY
PHOENIX — “Americans upset about illegal immigration have a new outlet for their rage: a fund set up by the State of Arizona that will use private donations to build a border wall.Critics call the state’s effort to build its own border barriers a foolhardy, feel-good campaign that will have little practical effect on illegal border crossings. But organizers in the State Legislature, which created the fund, say it will allow everyday people fed up with the inability of Congress to address the problem of illegal immigration to contribute personally to a solution.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/20/us/20border.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
SWAT Team Raids Stockton Man’s Home For Not Paying His Student Loan
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Law, News, Threat Watch on 18/Jul/2011 16:15
Ex-Intel Agent: Hezbollah Terrorists Within Miles of US Border
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch on 17/Jul/2011 15:58
By Martin Gould
“Hezbollah terrorists have set up a home base just across the Mexican border from San Diego, a former senior intelligence agent has claimed. The group presents a bigger threat to the United States than al-Qaida but so far appears to be lying low, making money from drug-running operations, San Diego’s Channel 10 News reports. www.10news.com/news/27780427/detail.html
“They are recognized by many experts as the ‘A’ team of Muslim terrorist organizations,” the unidentified agent is quoted as saying.
Hezbollah members have blended into Shiite communities in Mexican cities for years but the group has pushed north and now has a base in Tijuana, which is just over the border from the United States 25 miles from San Diego, the former agent said. It partners with drug cartels which pay for its security expertise.
Tunnels that have been built under the border show a level of sophistication that is consistent with Hezbollah’s work in the Middle East, he said.
The agent believes it is unlikely that Hezbollah will start attacking the United States from Mexico in the near future. “The money they are sending back to Lebanon is too important right now to jeopardize those operations.
“But if they really wanted to start blowing stuff up, they could.â€
He described Hezbollah as more dangerous than al-Qaida “because of strategic thinking; they think more long term.†Al-Qaida members, he said, “are more shooters than thinkers.â€
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Hezbollah-Mexico-US-border/2011/05/06/id/395452
How to Travel Safely – Tips from a Former Agent
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 16/Jul/2011 14:22
From Stratfor: Vice President of Intelligence & former agent Fred Burton discusses simple things you can do to stay safe while traveling.
Corpsman Killed in Afghanistan
Posted by Gary in News, Threat Watch, Warriors on 15/Jul/2011 09:10
MIDLAND, Mich. — A Navy hospital corpsman who enlisted out of high school and was on his first deployment to Afghanistan has been killed in action, his mother said Wednesday.
The remains of Aaron Ullom, 20, of Midland are scheduled to arrive Thursday afternoon at Dover Air Force Base, Del. Ullom was serving alongside a Marine unit when he was killed Tuesday.
General Petraeus leaves a still deadly Afghanistan to head CIA
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Threat Watch, Warriors on 14/Jul/2011 21:02
“When U.S. General David Petraeus was named supreme commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan one year ago, he had the reputation of something of a military miracle worker.
He was dubbed King David, the man who set unruly Iraq to rights, and lauded as the most influential general of his era, a warrior-scholar and the brilliant mind behind the American military’s new gospel of counterinsurgency.
…Gen. Petraeus had more than double the number of Afghan and foreign soldiers under his command than were available to fight the Taliban just three years ago. They created a new dynamic that critics say made Afghanistan a more violent place and spread the insurgency.”
Libya and the Problem with The Hague
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 13/Jul/2011 16:59
Libya and the Problem with The Hague is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By George Friedman
The war in Libya has been under way for months, without any indication of when it might end. Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi’s faction has been stronger and more cohesive than imagined and his enemies weaker and more divided. This is not unusual. There is frequently a perception that dictators are widely hated and that their power will collapse when challenged. That is certainly true at times, but often the power of a dictator is rooted in the broad support of an ideological faction, an ethnic group or simply those who benefit from the regime. As a result, naive assumptions of rapid regime change are quite often replaced by the reality of protracted conflict.
This has been a characteristic of what we have called “humanitarian wars,†those undertaken to remove a repressive regime and replace it with one that is more representative. Defeating a tyrant is not always easy. Gadhafi did not manage to rule Libya for 42 years without some substantial support.
Nevertheless, one would not expect that, faced with opposition from a substantial anti-regime faction in Libya as well as NATO and many other countries, Gadhafi would retain control of a substantial part of both the country and the army. Yet when we look at the situation carefully, it should be expected. Read the rest of this entry »
“Defective” Chips could have caused U.S. military shut down by secret ‘back door’
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Comms, News, Threat Watch, Warrior Tools on 13/Jul/2011 11:03
“Sources have confirmed that the U.S. Department of Defense over recent months purchased 59,000 microchips to use in Navy equipment that control everything from missiles to transponders.
But all of the chips turned out to be cheap knock-offs from China, and they ultimately were not installed, according to sources.
Besides being subject to failure, the chips also were designed with a “back door” which would have allowed the chip, and the device it controlled, to be shut down remotely at any time, sources report.
Had the flaw not been detected, the chips could have shut down U.S. warships, aircraft, advanced weapons systems and encoded transponders that distinguish friendly aircraft from hostile attackers.”
