Editor’s Note: As Stratfor readies to look forward in coming days at the implications for Russia — and its leader Vladimir Putin — in the downing July 17 of a Malaysian jetliner, we also invite readers to take stock with us of past forecasts of Russia’s geopolitical evolution in the context of global events. Stratfor Chairman George Friedman will examine the likelihood of Putin’s undoing in the next issue of Geopolitical Weekly, to publish July 22. Accordingly, we look back here at 1998, when we predicted the unfolding Kosovo crisis would be the undoing of late Russian President Boris Yeltsin. We share our assessment from 2000, when we assessed how newly elected President Putin was rapidly consolidating absolute power. In 2005, Stratfor reassessed Putin’s situation after his first presidential term and laid out how his leadership would begin to reverse the tide of concessions and reassert Russia’s role in line with historical cycles — including the forging of strategic relationships with countries such as Germany. In 2008, we looked at how Russia would capitalize on American weaknesses, including the fatigue of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In 2011, we foresaw the next stage, as Russia moved to solidify its sphere of influence while still able. In this forecast, we saw the events setting the stage for today’s crisis in Ukraine. Now, we foresee more historical change. We offer this chronology of forecasts in advance of our next report on Russia’s future. Read the rest of this entry »
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A-4 Skyhawk Anniversary
From Defense Media Network:
Tinkertoy, Scooter, Bantam Bomber, Mighty Midget, Mighty Mite, Heinemann’s Hot Rod, and other affectionate names were given to the A-4 Skyhawk, which first flew on June 22, 1954, and in fact the Douglas Aircraft Company’s Edward H. Heinemann had the design so right that Skyhawks are still in service today.
Pocket Shield From Raven Concealment
Posted by Brian in Accessories, News, Warrior Tools on 27/Jul/2014 12:42
A Chronology of Russia from Yeltsin’s Fall Through Putin’s Rise
“A Chronology of Russia from Yeltsin’s Fall Through Putin’s Rise is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Analysis
Can Putin Survive?
“Can Putin Survive? is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By George Friedman
There is a general view that Vladimir Putin governs the Russian Federation as a dictator, that he has defeated and intimidated his opponents and that he has marshaled a powerful threat to surrounding countries. This is a reasonable view, but perhaps it should be re-evaluated in the context of recent events.
Ukraine and the Bid to Reverse Russia’s Decline
Ukraine is, of course, the place to start. The country is vital to Russia as a buffer against the West and as a route for delivering energy to Europe, which is the foundation of the Russian economy. On Jan. 1, Ukraine’s president was Viktor Yanukovich, generally regarded as favorably inclined to Russia. Given the complexity of Ukrainian society and politics, it would be unreasonable to say Ukraine under him was merely a Russian puppet. But it is fair to say that under Yanukovich and his supporters, fundamental Russian interests in Ukraine were secure. Read the rest of this entry »
Robbery Leads Couple to Move and Buy a Gun
From ABC News:
“I didn’t want a gun. I specifically didn’t want one,†Dittrich said. “I was very much opposed to hav[ing] one, and I guess I got the realization that the police really can’t protect you. They can respond, and they can protect you once they get there. But, you’re on your own.â€
California Anti-Gun Bill AB 1964 Signed
From NRA-ILA:
Last Friday, July 18, Governor Jerry Brown (D) signed into law anti-gun Assembly Bill 1964. AB 1964 unnecessarily removes existing exemptions for all single-shot pistols, other than those with a break top or bolt-action, from California’s roster of “not unsafe†handguns. It is unfortunate that this legislation was passed and Governor Brown signed such a law that does not address any legitimate public safety problems and conflicts with well-established constitutional principles.
An Anti-Gun Bill Too Strong For California
From TheRightToBear.com:
According to the authors of the bill, AB 1014 would help to create de-facto gun restraining orders. The bill would let police officers seize a weapon based solely off the testimony of an immediate family member or health care professional and hold it for up to a year without any due process being extended to the gun owner.
Released Illegal Alien Accused of Murder, Kidnapping
From Breitbart.com:
The arrest was first reported by the Associated Press (AP), but Breitbart Texas has exclusively confirmed that the man was part of the Obama Administration’s catch and release policy for family groups from Central America.
Nigeria: Opting Out of an Insurgency
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 22/Jul/2014 12:51
“Nigeria: Opting Out of an Insurgency is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
Editor’s Note:Â This is the third installment in a three-part series on militant activity in Nigeria.Â
In some ways, the future of northern Nigeria’s counterinsurgency rests in the hands of Nigerian voters. If President Goodluck Jonathan is elected for another term, the Boko Haram campaign will intensify. If Jonathan loses, the presidency would go to a northerner, who would be better suited to developing the political, social and economic relationships needed to wage an effective counterinsurgency.
Analysis
Of course, the presidential election is a national contest, not a regional one, and so the consequences stretch far beyond northern Nigeria. Though Boko Haram has captured the attention of international media, it is not the only militant group with which Abuja contends, nor is it the only group that has a vested interest in the election’s outcome. If Jonathan is not re-elected and Niger Delta militants lose their political patronage, they will probably attack oil infrastructure in the country’s southwest, as they did in the mid-2000s. Nigeria conceivably could see two active insurgencies, depending on how the election plays out.
However, it is still possible to placate Niger Delta militants even if Jonathan loses. If Niger Delta officials are appointed to senior posts in the new administration, they could keep their patronage networks intact. Read the rest of this entry »
Gaza Situation Report
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 22/Jul/2014 07:00
“Gaza Situation Report is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By George Friedman
The current confrontation in Gaza began June 12 after three Israeli teenagers disappeared in the West Bank the month before. Israel announced the disappearance June 13, shortly thereafter placing blame on Hamas for the kidnappings. On June 14, Hamas fired three rockets into the Hof Ashkelon region. This was followed by Israeli attacks on Palestinians in the Jerusalem region. On July 8, the Israelis announced Operation Protective Edge and began calling up reservists. Hamas launched a longer-range rocket at Tel Aviv. Israel then increased its airstrikes against targets in Gaza.
At this point, it would appear that Israel has deployed sufficient force to be ready to conduct an incursion into Gaza. However, Israel has not done so yet. The conflict has consisted of airstrikes and some special operations forces raids by Israel and rocket launches by Hamas against targets in Israel. Read the rest of this entry »
Demographics of Gun Owning Households
From Pew Research:
Overall, about a third of all Americans with children under 18 at home have a gun in their household, including 34% of families with children younger than 12. That’s nearly identical to the share of childless adults or those with older children who have a firearm at home.
CA Bill To Require Ammo Registration and “Permit for Purchase”
From NRA-ILA:
SB 53 would require the purchasers of ammunition to register with the state Department of Justice (DOJ) prior to purchasing any ammunition. This registration would require the submission of fingerprints, a background check and fees to the DOJ. If passed and enacted into law, SB 53 would require the collection and reporting of personal consumer information and thumbprinting for all ammunition purchases throughout the state. It would also ban online and mail-order sales of all ammunition, including hunting and collectible ammunition. In addition, SB 53 would require anyone wishing to exercise their fundamental right to keep and bear arms to obtain a costly ammunition purchaser permit that must be renewed every two years.
Read the bill here
From smartgunlaws.org:
Status: This bill passed the Assembly Public Safety Committee on June 10, and is currently on the Assembly floor.Â