Since June, a great deal of international focus has been on Iraq, where the transnational jihadist movement Islamic State took over large swaths of the country’s Sunni-majority areas and declared the re-establishment of the caliphate. Despite the global attention on the country, especially given U.S. military operations against the Islamic State, U.S.-Iranian cooperation against the jihadist group — a significant dynamic — has gone largely unnoticed. A convergence of interests, particularly concerning the Iraqi central and Kurdish regional governments, has made it necessary for Washington and Tehran to at least coordinate their actions. However, mistrust and domestic opposition will continue hampering this cooperation.
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Posts Tagged middle east
Iraq and Syria Follow Lebanon’s Precedent
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 3/Sep/2014 07:09
“Iraq and Syria Follow Lebanon’s Precedent is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By George Friedman
Lebanon was created out of the Sykes-Picot Agreement. This agreement between Britain and France reshaped the collapsed Ottoman Empire south of Turkey into the states we know today — Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, and to some extent the Arabian Peninsula as well. For nearly 100 years, Sykes-Picot defined the region. A strong case can be made that the nation-states Sykes-Picot created are now defunct, and that what is occurring in Syria and Iraq represents the emergence of post-British/French maps that will replace those the United States has been trying to maintain since the collapse of Franco-British power. Read the rest of this entry »
Terrorism as Theater
“Terrorism as Theater is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By Robert D. Kaplan
The beheading of American journalist James Foley by the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq was much more than an altogether gruesome and tragic affair: rather, it was a very sophisticated and professional film production deliberately punctuated with powerful symbols. Foley was dressed in an orange jumpsuit reminiscent of the Muslim prisoners held by the United States at Guantanamo Bay. He made his confession forcefully, as if well rehearsed. His executioner, masked and clad in black, made an equally long statement in a calm, British accent, again, as if rehearsed. It was as if the killing was secondary to the message being sent. Read the rest of this entry »
What It Will Take To Kill ISIS
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 29/Aug/2014 12:16
From The Federalist:
Killing the IS requires neither more nor less than waging war—not as the former administration waged its “war on terror,†nor by the current administration’s pinpricks, nor according to the too-clever-by-half stratagems taught in today’s politically correct military war colleges, but rather by war in the dictionary meaning of the word. To make war is to kill the spirit as well as the body of the enemy, so terribly as to make sure that it will not rise again, and that nobody will want to imitate it. (emphasis added)
In Iraq, the United States and Iran Align Against the Islamic State
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 26/Aug/2014 12:36
“In Iraq, the United States and Iran Align Against the Islamic State is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
US and British Special Forces On the Ground Hunting ISIS Leadership
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 25/Aug/2014 15:16
From The Mirror:
Elite British and US special forces troops are forming a hunter killer unit called Task Force Black – its orders: “Smash the Islamic State.â€
The undercover warriors will aim to “cut the head off the snake†by hitting the command structure of the Islamist terror group responsible for a trail of atrocities across Iraq and Syria, reports the Sunday People.
ISIS Takes Control of Syrian Air Base
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 25/Aug/2014 14:46
From Breitbart.com:
President Bashar al-Assad’s state-run Syrian news agency admitted Sunday that the Tabqa air base had indeed been lost and that Syrian forces had successfully regrouped “after evacuating the airport.â€
Tabqa is home to an array of fighter jets, helicopters, tanks, artillery, and large caches of ammunition. It is unknown if Syrian forces were able to secure their armaments before conceding defeat and evacuating the base.
Kurdish Women Volunteer To Fight ISIS
Gotta love the commitment shown by these Kurdish women as they volunteer to aid #Peshmerga against #ISIS. #NO2ISIS pic.twitter.com/XitnFcXIe6
— Mustafa Aliraqi (@Iraqism) August 20, 2014
Secretary of Defense: “ISIS beyond anything we have seen”
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 22/Aug/2014 14:00
ISIS Incursion in to Lebanon
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 13/Aug/2014 12:52
From Yahoo News:
According to The Telegraph, a Syrian rebel group set up check-points in the border city but have not yet declared the area as part of the caliphate. In addition to 40,000 residents, there are roughly 120,000 refugees living in Arsal.
Kurdish Forces Push Back Against Islamic State
From Rudaw:
Rudaw reporter says that the Peshmerga have made progress in their counteroffensive near Zumar where they intend to cut off the IS militants from retreating into Syria.
“We decided to go on the offensive and fight the terrorists to the last breath,†said Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani Monday afternoon. “We have ordered the Peshmerga to attack the terrorists and enemies of Kurdistan with all their power.â€
Iraq: Examining the Professed Caliphate
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 9/Jul/2014 07:42
“Iraq: Examining the Professed Caliphate is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
The Islamic State, previously known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, has changed its name, but otherwise the militant group remains the same. Over the past weekend, a spokesman for the group announced that it had established a caliphate stretching from Diyala province, Iraq, to Aleppo, Syria. The caliphate is a political institution that the Islamic State claims will govern the global Muslim community. “Iraq” and “Levant” have been dropped from the organization’s name to reflect its new status.
The trouble with the announcement is that the Islamic State does not have a caliphate and probably never will. No amount of new monikers will change the fact that geography, political ideology and religious, cultural and ethnic differences will prevent the emergence of a singular polity capable of ruling the greater Middle East. Transnational jihadist groups can exploit weakened autocratic states, but they cannot institutionalize their power enough to govern such a large expanse of land. If anything, the Islamic State’s drive to unify the Middle East will actually create more conflicts than it will end as competing emirates vie for power in the new political environment.
What Is Political Islam?
From The CATO Institute:
The tragic events in Iraq, where the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) is currently mounting an offensive against the government of the Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, certainly appears to be consistent with Blair’s concern—namely that “the battles of this century … could easily be fought around the questions of cultural or religious difference.â€2 But to what extent do Blair’s claims reflect the experience of political transitions throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)?
The rise of political Islam into prominence poses important questions both for people in the MENA region and for policymakers in the West. Since 9/11, the thrust of Western foreign and security policy toward the MENA region has aimed at containing radical forms of Islam. In practice, that often meant cozying up to authoritarian regimes, as long as they were secular, since these were seen as superior to their theocratic alternatives. When the Egyptian military brought down President Mohamed Morsi in early July 2013, there was a sense of relief among many in Washington. American neoconservative commentator Bill Kristol, for example, articulated it in the following way:
The United States Has Unfinished Business in Ukraine and Iraq
“The United States Has Unfinished Business in Ukraine and Iraq is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By George Friedman
In recent weeks, some of the international system’s unfinished business has revealed itself. We have seen that Ukraine’s fate is not yet settled, and with that, neither is Russia’s relationship with the European Peninsula. In Iraq we learned that the withdrawal of U.S. forces and the creation of a new Iraqi political system did not answer the question of how the three parts of Iraq can live together. Geopolitical situations rarely resolve themselves neatly or permanently.
These events, in the end, pose a difficult question for the United States. For the past 13 years, the United States has been engaged in extensive, multidivisional warfare in two major theaters — and several minor ones — in the Islamic world. The United States is large and powerful enough to endure such extended conflicts, but given that neither conflict ended satisfactorily, the desire to raise the threshold for military involvement makes logical sense. Read the rest of this entry »
Jordan Could Be the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant’s Next Target
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 27/Jun/2014 07:58
“Jordan Could Be the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant’s Next Target is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, buoyed by its recent successes in Iraq, wants to expand its regional reach. Reports that Iraq has withdrawn forces from western towns close to its 180-kilometer (110-mile) border with Jordan have left Amman feeling vulnerable, and the Hashemite kingdom, certainly a target of interest for the jihadist movement, has deployed additional security personnel along the border.
However, taking on Jordan would be tough for the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. The group has the ability to stage terrorist attacks in the country, but significant constraints will prevent it from operating on the levels seen in Iraq and Syria.
The Intrigue Lying Behind Iraq’s Jihadist Uprising
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 17/Jun/2014 11:16
“The Intrigue Lying Behind Iraq’s Jihadist Uprising is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By Reva Bhalla
Events in Iraq over the past week were perhaps best crystallized in a series of photos produced by the jihadist group the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. Sensationally called The Destruction of Sykes-Picot, the pictures confirmed the group’s intent to upend nearly a century of history in the Middle East.
In a series of pictures set to a purring jihadist chant, the mouth of a bulldozer is shown bursting through an earthen berm forming Iraq’s northern border with Syria. Keffiyeh-wrapped rebels, drained by the hot sun, peer around the edges of the barrier to observe the results of their work. The breach they carved was just wide enough for the U.S.-made, Iraqi army-owned and now jihadist-purloined Humvees to pass through in single file. While a charter outlining an antiquated interpretation of Sharia was being disseminated in Mosul, #SykesPicotOver trended on jihadist Twitter feeds. From the point of view of Iraq’s jihadist celebrities, the 1916 borders drawn in secret by British and French imperialists represented by Sir Mark Sykes and Francois Georges-Picot to divide up Mesopotamia are not only irrelevant, they are destructible.
Today, the most ardent defenders of those colonial borders sit in Baghdad, Damascus, Ankara, Tehran and Riyadh while the Europeans and Americans, already fatigued by a decade of war in this part of the world, are desperately trying to sit this crisis out. The burden is on the regional players to prevent a jihadist mini-emirate from forming, and beneath that common purpose lies ample room for intrigue. Read the rest of this entry »