Posts Tagged syria

60 Minutes: The Results of ISIS Brutality

Posted by Brian in News on 30/Sep/2014 12:00

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Turkey Must Tread Carefully Against Islamic State

Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 25/Sep/2014 14:36

“Turkey Must Tread Carefully Against Islamic State is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

Summary

As the United States begins its full assault against the Islamic State in Syria, backed by Arab allies, the absence of NATO ally Turkey is drawing attention and comment. Just days before the Sept. 22 beginning of U.S. airstrikes, Turkey managed to broker a deal with the Islamic State to return 49 diplomats held in Iraq for 101 days. Contrary to diplomatic and media speculation, however, Turkey is not supporting the transnational, Syria- and Iraq-based jihadist movement known as the Islamic State.

While the details of just how Ankara retrieved its diplomats are sketchy, Ankara likely negotiated their release through its contacts among the Iraqi Sunni community and its ally, Qatar. This influence, especially among Sunni locals in not just Iraq but also Syria, will be critical if Turkey is going to be able to manage the jihadist threat long after the United States declares mission accomplished and moves on.

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The Virtue of Subtlety: A U.S. Strategy Against the Islamic State

Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 18/Sep/2014 07:30

“The Virtue of Subtlety: A U.S. Strategy Against the Islamic State is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

By George Friedman

U.S. President Barack Obama said recently that he had no strategy as yet toward the Islamic State but that he would present a plan on Wednesday. It is important for a president to know when he has no strategy. It is not necessarily wise to announce it, as friends will be frightened and enemies delighted. A president must know what it is he does not know, and he should remain calm in pursuit of it, but there is no obligation to be honest about it.

This is particularly true because, in a certain sense, Obama has a strategy, though it is not necessarily one he likes. Strategy is something that emerges from reality, while tactics might be chosen. Given the situation, the United States has an unavoidable strategy. There are options and uncertainties for employing it. Let us consider some of the things that Obama does know.

The Formation of National Strategy

There are serious crises on the northern and southern edges of the Black Sea Basin. There is no crisis in the Black Sea itself, but it is surrounded by crises. The United States has been concerned about the status of Russia ever since U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt negotiated the end of the Russo-Japanese war in 1905. The United States has been concerned about the Middle East since U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower forced the British to retreat from Suez in 1956. As a result, the United States inherited — or seized — the British position. Read the rest of this entry »

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Ukraine, Iraq and a Black Sea Strategy

Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 15/Sep/2014 12:42

“Ukraine, Iraq and a Black Sea Strategy is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

By George Friedman

The United States is, at the moment, off balance. It faces challenges in the Syria-Iraq theater as well as challenges in Ukraine. It does not have a clear response to either. It does not know what success in either theater would look like, what resources it is prepared to devote to either, nor whether the consequences of defeat would be manageable.

A dilemma of this sort is not unusual for a global power. Its very breadth of interests and the extent of power create opportunities for unexpected events, and these events, particularly simultaneous challenges in different areas, create uncertainty and confusion. U.S. geography and power permit a degree of uncertainty without leading to disaster, but generating a coherent and integrated strategy is necessary, even if that strategy is simply to walk away and let events run their course. I am not suggesting the latter strategy but arguing that at a certain point, confusion must run its course and clear intentions must emerge. When they do, the result will be the coherence of a new strategic map that encompasses both conflicts.  Read the rest of this entry »

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Iraq and Syria Follow Lebanon’s Precedent

Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 3/Sep/2014 07:09

“Iraq and Syria Follow Lebanon’s Precedent is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

By George Friedman

Lebanon was created out of the Sykes-Picot Agreement. This agreement between Britain and France reshaped the collapsed Ottoman Empire south of Turkey into the states we know today — Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, and to some extent the Arabian Peninsula as well. For nearly 100 years, Sykes-Picot defined the region. A strong case can be made that the nation-states Sykes-Picot created are now defunct, and that what is occurring in Syria and Iraq represents the emergence of post-British/French maps that will replace those the United States has been trying to maintain since the collapse of Franco-British power. Read the rest of this entry »

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What It Will Take To Kill ISIS

Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 29/Aug/2014 12:16

From The Federalist:

Killing the IS requires neither more nor less than waging war—not as the former administration waged its “war on terror,” nor by the current administration’s pinpricks, nor according to the too-clever-by-half stratagems taught in today’s politically correct military war colleges, but rather by war in the dictionary meaning of the word. To make war is to kill the spirit as well as the body of the enemy, so terribly as to make sure that it will not rise again, and that nobody will want to imitate it. (emphasis added)

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In Iraq, the United States and Iran Align Against the Islamic State

Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 26/Aug/2014 12:36

“In Iraq, the United States and Iran Align Against the Islamic State is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

Summary

Since June, a great deal of international focus has been on Iraq, where the transnational jihadist movement Islamic State took over large swaths of the country’s Sunni-majority areas and declared the re-establishment of the caliphate. Despite the global attention on the country, especially given U.S. military operations against the Islamic State, U.S.-Iranian cooperation against the jihadist group — a significant dynamic — has gone largely unnoticed. A convergence of interests, particularly concerning the Iraqi central and Kurdish regional governments, has made it necessary for Washington and Tehran to at least coordinate their actions. However, mistrust and domestic opposition will continue hampering this cooperation.

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US and British Special Forces On the Ground Hunting ISIS Leadership

Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 25/Aug/2014 15:16

From The Mirror:

Elite British and US special forces troops are forming a hunter killer unit called Task Force Black – its orders: “Smash the Islamic State.”

The undercover warriors will aim to “cut the head off the snake” by hitting the command structure of the Islamist terror group responsible for a trail of atrocities across Iraq and Syria, reports the Sunday People.

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ISIS Takes Control of Syrian Air Base

Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 25/Aug/2014 14:46

From Breitbart.com:

President Bashar al-Assad’s state-run Syrian news agency admitted Sunday that the Tabqa air base had indeed been lost and that Syrian forces had successfully regrouped “after evacuating the airport.”

Tabqa is home to an array of fighter jets, helicopters, tanks, artillery, and large caches of ammunition. It is unknown if Syrian forces were able to secure their armaments before conceding defeat and evacuating the base.

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Secretary of Defense: “ISIS beyond anything we have seen”

Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 22/Aug/2014 14:00

From Reuters:

“They are an imminent threat to every interest we have, whether it’s in Iraq or anywhere else,” Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told reporters at the Pentagon.

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Kurdish Forces Push Back Against Islamic State

Posted by Brian in News on 11/Aug/2014 07:42

From Rudaw:

Rudaw reporter says that the Peshmerga have made progress in their counteroffensive near Zumar where they intend to cut off the IS militants from retreating into Syria.

“We decided to go on the offensive and fight the terrorists to the last breath,” said Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani Monday afternoon. “We have ordered the Peshmerga to attack the terrorists and enemies of Kurdistan with all their power.”

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Iraq: Examining the Professed Caliphate

Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 9/Jul/2014 07:42

“Iraq: Examining the Professed Caliphate is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

Summary

The Islamic State, previously known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, has changed its name, but otherwise the militant group remains the same. Over the past weekend, a spokesman for the group announced that it had established a caliphate stretching from Diyala province, Iraq, to Aleppo, Syria. The caliphate is a political institution that the Islamic State claims will govern the global Muslim community. “Iraq” and “Levant” have been dropped from the organization’s name to reflect its new status.

The trouble with the announcement is that the Islamic State does not have a caliphate and probably never will. No amount of new monikers will change the fact that geography, political ideology and religious, cultural and ethnic differences will prevent the emergence of a singular polity capable of ruling the greater Middle East. Transnational jihadist groups can exploit weakened autocratic states, but they cannot institutionalize their power enough to govern such a large expanse of land. If anything, the Islamic State’s drive to unify the Middle East will actually create more conflicts than it will end as competing emirates vie for power in the new political environment.

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What Is Political Islam?

Posted by Brian in News on 2/Jul/2014 07:00

From The CATO Institute:

The tragic events in Iraq, where the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) is currently mounting an offensive against the government of the Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, certainly appears to be consistent with Blair’s concern—namely that “the battles of this century … could easily be fought around the questions of cultural or religious difference.”2 But to what extent do Blair’s claims reflect the experience of political transitions throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)?

The rise of political Islam into prominence poses important questions both for people in the MENA region and for policymakers in the West. Since 9/11, the thrust of Western foreign and security policy toward the MENA region has aimed at containing radical forms of Islam. In practice, that often meant cozying up to authoritarian regimes, as long as they were secular, since these were seen as superior to their theocratic alternatives. When the Egyptian military brought down President Mohamed Morsi in early July 2013, there was a sense of relief among many in Washington. American neoconservative commentator Bill Kristol, for example, articulated it in the following way:

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The United States Has Unfinished Business in Ukraine and Iraq

Posted by Brian in Opinion on 30/Jun/2014 07:00

“The United States Has Unfinished Business in Ukraine and Iraq is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

By George Friedman

In recent weeks, some of the international system’s unfinished business has revealed itself. We have seen that Ukraine’s fate is not yet settled, and with that, neither is Russia’s relationship with the European Peninsula. In Iraq we learned that the withdrawal of U.S. forces and the creation of a new Iraqi political system did not answer the question of how the three parts of Iraq can live together. Geopolitical situations rarely resolve themselves neatly or permanently.

These events, in the end, pose a difficult question for the United States. For the past 13 years, the United States has been engaged in extensive, multidivisional warfare in two major theaters — and several minor ones — in the Islamic world. The United States is large and powerful enough to endure such extended conflicts, but given that neither conflict ended satisfactorily, the desire to raise the threshold for military involvement makes logical sense. Read the rest of this entry »

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Jordan Could Be the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant’s Next Target

Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 27/Jun/2014 07:58

“Jordan Could Be the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant’s Next Target is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

Summary

The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, buoyed by its recent successes in Iraq, wants to expand its regional reach. Reports that Iraq has withdrawn forces from western towns close to its 180-kilometer (110-mile) border with Jordan have left Amman feeling vulnerable, and the Hashemite kingdom, certainly a target of interest for the jihadist movement, has deployed additional security personnel along the border.

However, taking on Jordan would be tough for the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. The group has the ability to stage terrorist attacks in the country, but significant constraints will prevent it from operating on the levels seen in Iraq and Syria.

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