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Archive for category Threat Watch
Afghanistan and the Long War
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch, Warriors on 19/Mar/2012 22:12
From STRATFOR:
By George Friedman
The war in Afghanistan has been under way for more than 10 years. It has not been the only war fought during this time; for seven of those years another, larger war was waged in Iraq, and smaller conflicts were under way in a number of other countries as well. But the Afghanistan War is still the longest large-scale, multi-divisional war fought in American history. An American soldier’s killing of 16 Afghan civilians, including nine children, on March 11 represents only a moment in this long war, but it is an important moment.
In the course of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, military strategists in the United States developed the concept of the long war. The theory was presented in many ways, but its core argument was this: The defeat of Taliban forces and the Iraqi resistance would take a long time, but success would not end the war because Islamist terrorism and its supporters would be a constantly shifting threat, both in the places and in the ways they would operate. Therefore, since it was essential to defeat terrorism, the United States was now engaging in a long war whose end was distant and course unknown. Read the rest of this entry »
Four Killed in Drug Violence in Western Mexico
Posted by Gary in News, Threat Watch on 18/Mar/2012 09:46
From: Borderland Beat
Suspected drug cartel enforcers killed four men and hung two of the victims’ bodies from a bridge in the western Mexican state of Michoacan, prosecutors said.
The state Attorney General’s Office said all four of the victims, none of whom were identified, bore signs of torture.
Two of the bodies were hung Friday afternoon from a bridge that spans a highway near the town of Vista Hermosa, not far from Michoacan’s border with Jalisco state.
Another victim whose throat had been slit was found dumped under the same bridge, while the fourth body was discovered floating in a river near the highway, prompting authorities to suspect a connection between the four homicides.
A Practical Guide to Situational Awareness
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 16/Mar/2012 12:04
From STRATFOR:
By Scott Stewart
For the past three weeks we have been running a series in the Security Weekly that focuses on some of the fundamentals of terrorism. First, we noted that terrorism is a tactic not exclusive to any one group and that the tactic would not end even if the jihadist threat were to disappear. We then discussed how actors planning terrorist attacks have to follow a planning process and noted that there are times during that process when such plots are vulnerable to detection.
Last week we discussed how one of the most important vulnerabilities during the terrorism planning process is surveillance, and we outlined what bad surveillance looks like and described some basic tools to help identify those conducting it. At the end of last week’s Security Weekly we also discussed how living in a state of paranoia and looking for a terrorist behind every bush not only is dangerous to one’s physical and mental health but also results in poor security. This brings us to this week, where we want to discuss the fundamentals of situational awareness and explain how people can practice the technique in a relaxed and sustainable way.
Situational awareness is very important, not just for personal security but as a fundamental building block in collective security. Because of this importance, Stratfor has written about situational awareness many times in the past. However, we believe it merits repeating again in order to share these concepts with our new readers as well as serve as a reminder for our longtime readers. Read the rest of this entry »
FBI Warns of Homegrown Violence After Afghan Massacre
Posted by Gary in News, Threat Watch on 15/Mar/2012 12:18
From ABC via Yahoo
Federal authorities have issued a warning there could be “acts of violence” in the homeland sparked by the recent massacre of 16 civilians in Afghanistan allegedly by an American soldier.
“The FBI and DHS [Department of Homeland Security] are concerned that this event could contribute to the radicalization or mobilization of homegrown violent extremists [HVEs] in the homeland, particularly against U.S.-based military targets which HVEs have historically considered legitimate targets for retaliation in response to past alleged U.S. military actions against civilians overseas,” the FBI and DHS said in a joint “awareness bulletin” to law enforcement agencies Wednesday. More from Yahoo
Except from: Hearing before the House Committee on Homeland Security
”Understanding the Homeland Threat Landscape – Considerations for the 112th Congress”
February 9, 2011
Homegrown Extremist Activity Remains Elevated
In addition to threats emanating from outside the country, we also remain concerned that homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) continue to pose an elevated threat to the Homeland. Plots disrupted in Washington, D.C., Oregon, Alaska, and Maryland during the past year were unrelated operationally, but indicate that the ideology espoused by al-Qa’ida and its adherents is motivating, or being used as a justification by, individuals to attack the Homeland. Key to this trend has been the development of a US-specific narrative, particularly in terrorist media
available on the Internet that motivates individuals to violence. This narrative—a blend of al-Qa‘ida inspiration, perceived victimization, and glorification of past Homegrown plotting—addresses the unique concerns of like-minded, US-based individuals. HVEs continue to act independently and have yet to demonstrate the capability to conduct sophisticated attacks, but as Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan demonstrated, attacks need not be sophisticated to be deadly.
- Similar to 2009, arrests of HVEs in the United States in 2010 remained at elevated levels, with four plots disrupted in the Homeland. The individuals involved were motivated to carry out violence on the basis of a variety of personal rationales, underscoring the continued intent by some HVEs to take part in violence despite having no operational connections to terrorists overseas.
- Increasingly sophisticated English-language propaganda that provides extremists with guidance to carry out Homeland attacks remains easily accessible via the Internet. English-language web forums also foster a sense of community and further indoctrinate new recruits, both of which can lead to increased levels of violent activity.
- The prominent profiles of US citizens within overseas terrorist groups—such as Omar Hammami in al-Shabaab and Anwar al-Aulaqi in AQAP—may also provide young U.S.-based individuals with American role models in groups that in the past may have appeared foreign and inaccessible. These individuals have also provided encouragement for homegrown extremists to travel overseas and join terrorist organizations.
The Global State of Piracy
Posted by Gary in Threat Watch on 15/Mar/2012 11:53
IDGA Podcast
CAPT Robert B. Ford, Sr. Data Analyst, Maritime Administration, Department of Homeland Security (DHS), talks to IDGA about developing sustainable solutions to combat global piracy; achieving the proper balance between safety and security; and current anti-piracy tactics, techniques, and procedures.
Detecting Terrorist Surveillance
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 12/Mar/2012 10:00
This is a report from STRATFOR:
By Scott Stewart
As we noted last week, terrorist attacks do not materialize out of thin air. In fact, quite the opposite is true. Those planning terrorist attacks follow a discernable process referred to as the terrorist attack cycle. We also discussed last week how terrorism planners are vulnerable to detection at specific points during their attack cycle and how their poor surveillance tradecraft is one of these vulnerable junctures.
While surveillance is a necessary part of the planning process, the fact that it is a requirement does not necessarily mean that terrorist planners are very good at it. With this in mind, let’s take a closer look at surveillance and discuss what bad surveillance looks like. Read the rest of this entry »
Things to Think About Before Israel Attacks Iran
Posted by Gary in Threat Watch on 8/Mar/2012 14:45
From: Defense Media Network
For several years, Israel has publicly and explicitly stated that if Iran attempts to develop a nuclear weapon, Israel will attack to prevent the program from succeeding or to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability…
Smartphones Leak Encryption
Posted by Brian in Gear, News, Threat Watch on 7/Mar/2012 19:26
Technology Review reports that an attacker my be able to pick up encryption keys from cellphones with a TV antenna:
The antenna was detecting radio signals “leaking” from the transistors on the chip inside the phone performing the encryption calculations. Transistors leak those signals when they are active, so the pattern of signals from a chip provides an eavesdropper a representation of the work the chip is doing. When Kenworthy tuned his equipment to look in the right place, a clear, regular pattern of peaks and troughs appeared on his computer screen. They could be seen to come in two varieties, large and small, directly corresponding to the string of digital 1s and 0s that make up the encryption key.
Texas DPS Acquires Red River Gun Boats
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 2/Mar/2012 15:14
From Wired’s Danger Room:
The boats have drawn comparison to Vietnam-era Patrol Fast Craft boats, or Swift Boats. But they’re a bit smaller, with a length of 34 feet in comparison to the Swift Boat’s 50. Swift Boats were also armed with high-explosive mortars, which will not be on board the gunboats. Still, they’re pretty menacing. The gunboats will reportedly carry an arsenal of six mounted machine guns apiece.
American Servicemen Murdered Over Book Burning
Posted by Gary in News, Opinion, Threat Watch on 27/Feb/2012 10:11
From: Danger Room
Protests — some better called riots — have spread into their sixth day. Most shockingly, an Interior Ministry employee killed two U.S. servicemembers working in the ministry’s Kabul headquarters, reportedly by shooting them in the head on Saturday with a silencer-equipped pistol. Pentagon press secretary George Little called the killings “murder.”
More proof that Islam really is no different than any other religion. Muslims are just like Baptists, Buddhists and Lutherans, who will also slit throats and shoot you in the head if someone from your country burns their holy book.
U.S. and U.K. Counter Terror Expos
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 23/Feb/2012 08:39
U.S. – Washington, D.C. May 16-17, 2012
U.K. – Olympia, London April 25-26, 2012
Counterterrorism & Security Education and Research Foundation
Posted by Brian in Threat Watch, Warriors on 22/Feb/2012 13:49
CTSERF is a not-for-profit organization dedicated to understanding all facets of terrorism.
Justice Breyer – Ideology vs Machete
Posted by Gary in Law, News, Opinion, Threat Watch on 17/Feb/2012 11:16
Justice Stephen Breyer
In a bit of timely and ironic justice, Justice Stephen Breyer, who wrote in his dissenting opinion in McDonald vs Chicago, “… the Framers did not write the Second Amendment in order to protect a private right of armed self defense”, was robbed by a machete-wielding miscreant a few days ago on the island of Nevis. Despite the island paradise’s complete ban on handguns (much like the Justice would have preferred to be the case in Chicago) there still seems to be the odd armed robber, threatening peoples lives and inconveniencing vacationers. Normally the Justice doesn’t need to bring along his own firearms for protection like the rest of us, that is the job of the U.S. Marshals Service. I wonder where they were during the attack? You see this is the problem, there is never a taxpayer-funded, well trained, armed bodyguard around when you need one, even if you are a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States of America.
More from CNN
Jihadist Opportunities in Syria
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 15/Feb/2012 10:10
From STRATFOR:
By Kamran Bokhari
In an eight-minute video clip titled “Onward, Lions of Syria” disseminated on the Internet Feb. 12, al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri expressed al Qaeda’s support for the popular unrest in Syria. In it, al-Zawahiri urged Muslims in Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan to aid the Syrian rebels battling Damascus. The statement comes just days after a McClatchy report quoted unnamed American intelligence officials as saying that the Iraqi node of the global jihadist network carried out two attacks against Syrian intelligence facilities in Damascus, while Iraqi Deputy Interior Minister Adnan al-Assadi said in a recent interview with AFP that Iraqi jihadists were moving fighters and weapons into neighboring Syria.
Al Qaeda’s long-term goal has been to oust Arab governments to facilitate the return of a transnational caliphate. Its tactics have involved mainly terrorism intended to cause U.S. intervention in the region. Al Qaeda has hoped such interventions would in turn incite popular uprisings that would bring down the Arab regimes, opening the way for the jihadists to eventually take power. But the jihadist network’s efforts have failed and they have remained a marginal player in the Arab world. By addressing Syria, al Qaeda hopes to tap into the past year of Arab unrest, a movement in which it played little to no part. Read the rest of this entry »
Mexico’s Presidential Election and the Cartel War
Posted by Brian in News, Threat Watch on 14/Feb/2012 16:10
From STRATFOR:
By Scott Stewart
Mexico will hold its presidential election July 1 against the backdrop of a protracted war against criminal cartels in the country. Former President Vicente Fox of the National Action Party (PAN) launched that struggle; his successor, Felipe Calderon, also of the PAN, greatly expanded it. While many Mexicans apparently support action against the cartels, the Calderon government has come under much criticism for its pursuit of the cartels, contributing to Calderon’s low popularity at the moment. The PAN is widely expected to lose in July to the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which controlled the Mexican presidency for most of the 20th century until Fox’s victory in 2000. According to polls, the PAN has lost credibility among many Mexican voters, many of whom also once again view the PRI as a viable alternative.
In our effort to track Mexico’s criminal cartels and to help our readers understand the dynamics that shape the violence in Mexico, Stratfor talks to a variety of people, including Mexican and U.S. government officials, journalists, business owners, taxi drivers and street vendors. At present, many of these contacts are saying that the Calderon administration could attempt to pull off some sort of last-minute political coup (in U.S. political parlance, an “October surprise”) to boost the PAN’s popularity so it can retain the presidency. Read the rest of this entry »