The rise of the Islamic State will inspire other jihadist groups to claim their own caliphates and emirates. In the long run, the extremism of these contrived dominions and the competition among them will undermine the jihadist movement. However, before that happens, the world will witness much upheaval.
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Archive for category Opinion
The Islamic Threat: Even Bill Maher Gets It
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 21/Sep/2014 07:51
From Fox News:
Opinion Polls Show Support For Guns at Kroger, Panera
From Examiner.com:
The MSNBC poll asking whether Kroger shoppers should be allowed to carry handguns was coming in with 85 percent in favor and only 15 percent opposed. A CNBC poll on the Panera Bread decision was running at 84 percent support forgun rights and 11 percent against. An MSNBC poll on the Panera Bread request was also coming in at 75 percent in favor of armed customers, and 25 percent against guns.
The Virtue of Subtlety: A U.S. Strategy Against the Islamic State
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 18/Sep/2014 07:30
“The Virtue of Subtlety: A U.S. Strategy Against the Islamic State is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By George Friedman
U.S. President Barack Obama said recently that he had no strategy as yet toward the Islamic State but that he would present a plan on Wednesday. It is important for a president to know when he has no strategy. It is not necessarily wise to announce it, as friends will be frightened and enemies delighted. A president must know what it is he does not know, and he should remain calm in pursuit of it, but there is no obligation to be honest about it.
This is particularly true because, in a certain sense, Obama has a strategy, though it is not necessarily one he likes. Strategy is something that emerges from reality, while tactics might be chosen. Given the situation, the United States has an unavoidable strategy. There are options and uncertainties for employing it. Let us consider some of the things that Obama does know.
The Formation of National Strategy
There are serious crises on the northern and southern edges of the Black Sea Basin. There is no crisis in the Black Sea itself, but it is surrounded by crises. The United States has been concerned about the status of Russia ever since U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt negotiated the end of the Russo-Japanese war in 1905. The United States has been concerned about the Middle East since U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower forced the British to retreat from Suez in 1956. As a result, the United States inherited — or seized — the British position. Read the rest of this entry »
Ukraine, Iraq and a Black Sea Strategy
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 15/Sep/2014 12:42
“Ukraine, Iraq and a Black Sea Strategy is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
By George Friedman
The United States is, at the moment, off balance. It faces challenges in the Syria-Iraq theater as well as challenges in Ukraine. It does not have a clear response to either. It does not know what success in either theater would look like, what resources it is prepared to devote to either, nor whether the consequences of defeat would be manageable.
A dilemma of this sort is not unusual for a global power. Its very breadth of interests and the extent of power create opportunities for unexpected events, and these events, particularly simultaneous challenges in different areas, create uncertainty and confusion. U.S. geography and power permit a degree of uncertainty without leading to disaster, but generating a coherent and integrated strategy is necessary, even if that strategy is simply to walk away and let events run their course. I am not suggesting the latter strategy but arguing that at a certain point, confusion must run its course and clear intentions must emerge. When they do, the result will be the coherence of a new strategic map that encompasses both conflicts. Read the rest of this entry »
Brother Rachid on The President’s Speech
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 14/Sep/2014 15:39
New York Times: Assault Weapon Myth
The New York Times concedes that the term “assault weapon” was made up and that the ban in the ’90s didn’t work.
But in the 10 years since the previous ban lapsed, even gun control advocates acknowledge a larger truth: The law that barred the sale of assault weapons from 1994 to 2004 made little difference.
It turns out that big, scary military rifles don’t kill the vast majority of the 11,000 Americans murdered with guns each year. Little handguns do.
It was much the same in the early 1990s when Democrats created and then banned a category of guns they called “assault weapons.†America was then suffering from a spike in gun crime and it seemed like a problem threatening everyone. Gun murders each year had been climbing: 11,000, then 13,000, then 17,000.
As Caliphates Compete, Radical Islam Will Eventually Weaken
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 12/Sep/2014 12:48
“As Caliphates Compete, Radical Islam Will Eventually Weaken is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Summary
Analysis
In a 52-minute video that surfaced in late August, Abubakar Shekau, the head of Nigerian jihadist group Boko Haram, spoke of an Islamic State in northeastern Nigeria. The statement came two months after Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the chief of the transnational jihadist movement in Syria and Iraq, declared the re-establishment of the caliphate, renaming the group the Islamic State. Though likely inspired by the Islamic State, Boko Haram is not simply mimicking its more powerful Syrian-Iraqi counterpart; it is taking its cue from the Nigeria-based Sokoto Caliphate, which was established in the early 1800s and existed for almost a century until Britain gained control of the region.
The Caliphate’s Role in History
According to classical Muslim political theorists, there can be only one caliphate for the entire Muslim global community, or ummah. In practice, though, there have been rival claimants to authority and even competing caliphates throughout the history of Islam. In our July 1 analysis on the subject, Stratfor explained not only how multiple emirates and sultanates emerged independently of the caliphate but also that there were rival caliphates — for example, the Abbasid in Baghdad (749-1258), Umayyad in the Iberian Peninsula (929-1031) and Fatimid in Cairo (909-1171).
Read the rest of this entry »
NRA: Honest Broker
http://youtu.be/ZJ_X0YLcLpg