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Archive for category Opinion
Jihadist Opportunities in Libya
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 25/Feb/2011 18:11
Jihadist Opportunities in Libya is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Scott Stewart
As George Friedman noted in his geopolitical weekly “Revolution and the Muslim World,†one aspect of the recent wave of revolutions we have been carefully monitoring is the involvement of militant Islamists, and their reaction to these events.
Militant Islamists, and specifically the subset of militant Islamists we refer to as jihadists, have long sought to overthrow regimes in the Muslim world. With the sole exception of Afghanistan, they have failed, and even the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan was really more a matter of establishing a polity amid a power vacuum than the true overthrow of a coherent regime. The brief rule of the Supreme Islamic Courts Council in Somalia also occurred amid a similarly chaotic environment and a vacuum of authority.
However, even though jihadists have not been successful in overthrowing governments, they are still viewed as a threat by regimes in countries like Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. In response to this threat, these regimes have dealt quite harshly with the jihadists, and strong crackdowns combined with other programs have served to keep the jihadists largely in check.
As we watch the situation unfold in Libya, there are concerns that unlike Tunisia and Egypt, the uprising in Libya might result not only in a change of ruler but also in a change of regime and perhaps even a collapse of the state. In Egypt and Tunisia, strong military regimes were able to ensure stability after the departure of a long-reigning president. By contrast, in Libya, longtime leader Moammar Gadhafi has deliberately kept his military and security forces fractured and weak and thereby dependent on him. Consequently, there may not be an institution to step in and replace Gadhafi should he fall. This means energy-rich Libya could spiral into chaos, the ideal environment for jihadists to flourish, as demonstrated by Somalia and Afghanistan.
Because of this, it seems an appropriate time to once again examine the dynamic of jihadism in Libya. Read the rest of this entry »
Backup Gun: Smith and Wesson M&P340
Posted by Brian in Handguns, Opinion, Smith & Wesson on 25/Feb/2011 01:02
Tactical Wire just wrote a a review of the Smith and Wesson revolver as a good choice for a backup carry gun.
A backup gun to complement the excellent M&P auto pistols and M&P15 carbines, the M&P340 is a Scandium frame super-light Magnum revolver. I’d avoided flyweight Magnums before this one. The steel small-frame guns got to be too much for me to shoot with any regularity.
Revolution and the Muslim World
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 22/Feb/2011 12:17
Revolution and the Muslim World is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By George Friedman
The Muslim world, from North Africa to Iran, has experienced a wave of instability in the last few weeks. No regimes have been overthrown yet, although as of this writing, Libya was teetering on the brink.
There have been moments in history where revolution spread in a region or around the world as if it were a wildfire. These moments do not come often. Those that come to mind include 1848, where a rising in France engulfed Europe. There was also 1968, where the demonstrations of what we might call the New Left swept the world: Mexico City, Paris, New York and hundreds of other towns saw anti-war revolutions staged by Marxists and other radicals. Prague saw the Soviets smash a New Leftist government. Even China’s Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution could, by a stretch, be included. In 1989, a wave of unrest, triggered by East Germans wanting to get to the West, generated an uprising in Eastern Europe that overthrew Soviet rule.
Each had a basic theme. The 1848 uprisings attempted to establish liberal democracies in nations that had been submerged in the reaction to Napoleon. 1968 was about radical reform in capitalist society. 1989 was about the overthrow of communism. They were all more complex than that, varying from country to country. But in the end, the reasons behind them could reasonably be condensed into a sentence or two.
Some of these revolutions had great impact. 1989 changed the global balance of power. 1848 ended in failure at the time — France reverted to a monarchy within four years — but set the stage for later political changes. 1968 produced little that was lasting. The key is that in each country where they took place, there were significant differences in the details — but they shared core principles at a time when other countries were open to those principles, at least to some extent. Read the rest of this entry »
The Real Enemy in Afghanistan – Corruption
Posted by Gary in News, Opinion, Threat Watch on 8/Feb/2011 15:15
From IDGA
Afghanistan is easily one of the most corrupt countries most Americans have ever been to and conducting counter insurgency in this environment is extremely taxing and difficult. Corruption starts from the highest level official and goes to the lowest level private.
WILL A 9MM REALLY PROTECT YOU?
Posted by Jack Sinclair in Handguns, Opinion, Warrior Tools on 4/Feb/2011 20:16
Comment by Watcher3223:
ANY handgun round won’t provide protection if:
1. You are a bad shot.
2. You subscribe to the notion of one shot kills with handgun loads.
3. You don’t have a gun.
It’s been said that the purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to a rifle. That said, a 9x19mm is effective for its intended purpose.
While you want to get as large a caliber as you can handle, the truth is you do not want your body invaded by a bullet of ANY kind. Even a well-placed shot with .22LR can kill your target.
On Sheep, Wolves, and Sheepdogs
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Opinion, Warriors on 30/Jan/2011 21:25
LTC Dave Grossman (RET)
By LTC Dave Grossman (RET)
“One Vietnam veteran, an old retired colonel, once said this to me: “Most of the people in our society are sheep. They are kind, gentle, productive creatures who can only hurt one another by accident.”
… We may well be in the most violent times in history, but violence is still remarkably rare. This is because most citizens are kind, decent people who are not capable of hurting each other, except by accident or under extreme provocation. They are sheep.
I mean nothing negative by calling them sheep. To me it is like the pretty, blue robin’s egg. Inside it is soft and gooey but someday it will grow into something wonderful. But the egg cannot survive without its hard blue shell. Police officers, soldiers, and other warriors are like that shell, and someday the civilization they protect will grow into something wonderful. For now, though, they need warriors to protect them from the predators.
Don’t Aim for the Upper Chest?
Posted by Jack Sinclair in News, Opinion, Training on 30/Jan/2011 19:31
“Aiming for the Upper Chest or Central Mass results in effective shot placement. This is a reasonable theory if no one is moving. In a real life self defense situation, you cannot expect that the assailant to stand still like a target on a shooting range.
This series is produced for DownRange TV by Ralph Mroz and David Kenik.
Ralph Mroz and David Kenik are the people behind the Armed Response DVD series. These video programs avoid both the simplistic advice that is too often given for armed self-defense, and on the other end of the spectrum, the over-macho “high-speed†“tactical†advice that is also both unrealistic and too prevalent. Instead the focus is on what is realistically possible for most people to do in these extreme circumstances. Mroz was a police officer for almost 20 years, most recently assigned to his county’s drug task force; Kenik is the firearms instructor for the Lake Arthur, NM police department.”
video here:
http://www.downrange.tv/blog/armed-response-dont-aim-for-the-upper-chest/8129/
The Moscow Attack and Airport Security
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 28/Jan/2011 09:00
The Moscow Attack and Airport Security is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Scott Stewart
The Jan. 24 bombing at Moscow’s Domodedovo International Airport killed 35 people and injured more than 160. The attack occurred at approximately 4:40 p.m. as passengers from several arriving international flights were leaving the airport after clearing immigration and customs. The attacker (or attackers; reports are still conflicting over whether the attack was conducted by a man or a man and a woman together) entered the international arrivals hall of the airport, a part of the facility that is outside the secure area and that is commonly packed with crowds of relatives and taxi and limo drivers waiting to meet travelers.
Once the attacker was in the midst of the waiting crowd and exiting passengers, the improvised explosive device that he (or she) carried was detonated. It is not clear at this point whether the device was command-detonated by the attacker as a traditional suicide bomb or if the device was remotely detonated by another person. The attack was most likely staged by Islamist militants from Russia’s Northern Caucasus region who have conducted a long series of attacks in Russia, including the Aug. 24, 2004, suicide bombings that destroyed two Russian airliners.
The Domodedovo attack serves as a striking illustration of several trends we have been following for years now, including the difficulty of preventing attacks against soft targets, the resourcefulness of militants in identifying such targets and the fixation militants have on aviation-related targets. Read the rest of this entry »
Obama’s State of the Union and U.S. Foreign Policy
Obama’s State of the Union and U.S. Foreign Policy is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By George Friedman
U.S. President Barack Obama will deliver the State of the Union address tonight. The administration has let the media know that the focus of the speech will be on jobs and the economy. Given the strong showing of the Republicans in the last election, and the fact that they have defined domestic issues as the main battleground, Obama’s decision makes political sense. He will likely mention foreign issues and is undoubtedly devoting significant time to them, but the decision not to focus on foreign affairs in his State of the Union address gives the impression that the global situation is under control. Indeed, the Republican focus on domestic matters projects the same sense. Both sides create the danger that the public will be unprepared for some of the international crises that are already quite heated. We have discussed these issues in detail, but it is useful to step back and look at the state of the world for a moment. Read the rest of this entry »
The Right to Fight: Womens’ Role in the Military
From: IDGA
Women’s roles in the military have always served as a case for controversy, and women continue to struggle not only for equality of positions and duties, but to surpass barriers that lead to promotion, which sometimes cannot be achieved unless access to certain positions are granted.
Many of us question how this can even be an issue in the 21st Century Western world, where women assume an array of powerful and influential roles. The cold, hard truth is women are not yet given the same opportunities in the military as men. The issue, however, is being addressed and laws are slowly being passed to change this.
China’s Military Comes Into Its Own
China’s Military Comes Into Its Own is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Rodger Baker
Chinese President Hu Jintao is visiting the United States, perhaps his last state visit as president before China begins its generational leadership transition in 2012. Hu’s visit is being shaped by the ongoing China-U.S. economic dialogue, by concerns surrounding stability on the Korean Peninsula and by rising attention to Chinese defense activity in recent months. For example, China carried out the first reported test flight of its fifth-generation combat fighter prototype, dubbed the J-20, during U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ visit to China the previous week.
The development and test flight of China’s J-20 is not insignificant, but it is also by no means a game changer in the U.S.-China defense balance. More intriguingly, the test highlights how China’s military increasingly is making its interests heard. Read the rest of this entry »
Obama Adminstration’s Attack On Guns
Fox News reports that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives has proposed a new regulation for the sale of rifles in border states (i.e. Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and California). The regulation would cover any rifle larger than .22 caliber that also has a detachable magazine, which is almost every rifle ever made.
According to an ATF spokesman:
the agency is pushing for this new regulation now because since 2004, there’s been a 100 percent increase by Mexican drug cartels using rifles, which are not covered by any reporting requirements.
This quote is misleading at best. The spokesman is implying that gun runners for the cartels are coming into the United States and buying semi-automatic rifles off the shelf. There have been many claims that most of the guns found in cartel caches are from the United States. Most of the guns that can be tracked are from the U.S., the U.S. military. The automatic rifles that we send to Mexico are stolen from the army and police and used by the cartels. The distinction between semi-automatic and automatic is key, because for the most part no one is this country is allowed to purchase a fully automatic rifle.
Later in the article a spokesman for the Brady Campaign is quoted:
“It makes sense that law enforcement should be alerted if someone is buying five, 10 or 100 assault weapons, when it’s likely that those guns could be headed to drug cartels in Mexico,” said Paul Helmke, president of the Brady Campaign.
“It will give ATF the same amount of information about people who buy military-style assault weapons in bulk that they already have had for more than 40 years about people who buy handguns in bulk,” he said in a statement. “It’s the kind of crime-fighting information that our law enforcement officials ought to have if we want to reduce the number of assault weapons being trafficked illegally to Mexico, as well as to American cities.”
This quote is also misleading and full of exaggeration, meant to scare people who don’t know any better. There maybe a few cases of gun owners buying five rifles at a time, but it is very unlikely to occur not to mention ten or a hundred at one time, which is ridiculous. I don’t know anyone who owns a hundred guns and if you are reading this I bet you don’t either. As I said before cartels are not purchasing their guns from U.S. gun shops. This regulation will, if passed, inevitably make it harder for law-abiding citizens to arms themselves while doing nothing to deter criminals and the drug cartels who are already breaking the law.
Congressional Security and the Tucson Shooting
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 13/Jan/2011 15:15
Congressional Security and the Tucson Shooting is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By Fred Burton and Sean Noonan
Following the Jan. 8 shooting of U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Federal District Judge John McCarthy Roll and 17 others in Tucson, Arizona, discussion has focused on the motivations and ideology of the accused shooter, Jared Loughner. While it was important to make a quick assessment of Loughner’s profile in order to evaluate the possibility of an organized threat, all the available evidence (though not conclusive) indicates that he acted alone.
For the most part, discussion of the event has not touched on a re-evaluation of security for members of Congress. STRATFOR has previously analyzed the issues surrounding presidential security, and while there are common concerns in protecting all branches of government, Congress and the judiciary involve much larger numbers of people — 535 representatives and senators and more than 3,000 federal judges. And members of Congress put a high priority on public accessibility, which makes them more vulnerable.
A common mindset of politicians and their staffers is that better security will limit their accessibility and thus hinder their ability to do their job (and win elections). In fact, there are a number of measures that members of Congress and other public officials can institute for better security without limiting accessibility. While staying in a secure facility would be the safest, it isn’t a realistic option. What is realistic — and effective — is the prudent employment of protective intelligence as well as some measure of physical protection on the move. Read the rest of this entry »
The Turkish Role in Negotiations with Iran
Posted by Brian in Opinion, Threat Watch on 12/Jan/2011 09:13
The Turkish Role in Negotiations with Iran is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
By George Friedman
The P-5+1 talks with Iran will resume Jan. 21-22. For those not tuned into the obscure jargon of the diplomatic world, these are the talks between the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia), plus Germany — hence, P-5+1. These six countries will be negotiating with one country, Iran. The meetings will take place in Istanbul under the aegis of yet another country, Turkey. Turkey has said it would only host this meeting, not mediate it. It will be difficult for Turkey to stay in this role.
The Iranians have clearly learned from the North Koreans, who have turned their nuclear program into a framework for entangling five major powers (the United States, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea) into treating North Korea as their diplomatic equal. For North Korea, whose goal since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the absorption of China with international trade has come down to regime survival, being treated as a serious power has been a major diplomatic coup. The mere threat of nuclear weapons development has succeeded in doing that. When you step back and consider that North Korea’s economy is among the most destitute of Third World countries and its nuclear capability is far from proven, getting to be the one being persuaded to talk with five major powers (and frequently refusing and then being coaxed) has been quite an achievement. Read the rest of this entry »